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Article Archive For David Penn
DownloadAdvanced Scale-In Strategies For Short-Term Traders by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Advanced Scale-In Strategies For Short-Term Traders by David Penn How can short-term traders add an edge of as much as 10% to their per-trade win rate? High-probability exchange traded fund (Etf) trading is a quantified strategy of buying Etfs after they have pulled back and selling after they have recovered in price. More than 100 Etfs were tested since inception. The results of the testing showed that buying Etfs after they had pulled back and become oversold resulted in high-probability Etf trading strategies that were correct more than 75% of the time. These tests included all of the...
Working Money: Bottoms, Breakouts, And Bear Patterns by David Penn
Working Money: Confirmation Destination by David Penn
Ready For Retail?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Fed easing season arrived earlier than expected. And the sector rotation rulebook says it is time to invest in retail stocks. But is retail ready to run?...
Bottoms, Breakouts, And Bear Patterns
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Divergences, stars, engulfing patterns, and BOSO plays abound in three and a half months of price action in September lumber....
December Crude Crosses The Line: New Highs And Negative Divergences
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A strong bull market in 2007 took December crude to levels not seen since August 2006. Is it time for crude to come in?...
A Stochastic Breakout In December Coffee: Better Late On The Break Than Never
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A BOSO play in the stochastic helps traders climb on board a fast-moving market post-breakout....
MmM Pattern Breakout In December Silver Sends The Precious Metal Higher
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A confirmed close serves as confirmation for a BOSO setup to the upside as well as a similarly bullish setup in the MACD histogram....
Beat The Breakout: Histogram Patterns Anticipate The Move Higher In High-Grade Copper
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Wouldn't you rather already be long when the market breaks out?...
Watching The Divergences: Picking A Short Point In The December T-Note Rally
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Waiting for a confirming close can make all the difference between getting whipsawed and getting rewarded in the market....
2B Bottoms And Positive Divergences: Cotton's August Bounce Buoys Commodity
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A 2B bottom in the second half of August is confirmed by positive divergences, sending December cotton soaring into September....
PpP Patterns And The MACD Histogram: Soybean Meal Makes Its Move
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A bullish pattern in the MACDH develops just as the December contract closes over its 50-day EMA, signaling an opportunity to the upside in bean meal....
Overbought Breakout Sends Bean Oil Toward Contract Highs
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A MmM pattern in the MACD histogram hints at a buying opportunity as December bean oil rallies into September....
A Cocoa Pop? Positive Divergence And Seasonal Trends
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A positive divergence in the MACDH anticipates the seasonal "September rally" in cocoa futures....
Not So High On The Hogs: Divergences And Breakdowns In The October Contract
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Negative divergences in the stochastic and the MACD histogram anticipated a late summer correction in lean hog futures....
Bearish mMm Pattern Breaks The Greenback/Swissy Down
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A break below support at the 50-day EMA and a confirming close make for a lower USD/CHF....
A 2B Bottom In December Gold?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As gold slides toward a cyclically bullish period, is this reversal pattern signaling the all-clear?...
A Morning Star Wakes Up The Dow
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A classic Japanese candlestick pattern reveals a bottom in the hourly Dow industrials....
Confirmation Destination
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Does the tepid bounce in the transports augur badly for the broader market?...
Rate Breakdown: 10-Year Yields Get Whacked
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Another day, another look at a setup gone awry....
Evening Star In December Gold Awaits Bearish Confirmation
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Negative divergences in the MACD histogram and stochastic support potential for correction in the yellow metal....
Dollar Down Against The Yen: Revisiting The Ascending Triangle In USD/JPY
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A few days after an ascending triangle hinted at higher prices, sellers took the USD/JPY down hard. Here's how it happened....
Beans Bounce Back: Divergence To BOSO To MACD Histogram Reversal
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Three technical setups helped traders game the market for November soybeans....
USD/JPY: Breakout And Pullback Off The Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...An ascending triangle bottom in August and September hints at higher prices for the greenback against the yen....
2Bs And Negative Divergences: Silver Stalls At The Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Failure to follow through on the move above $14 creates potential for reversal or consolidation....
10-Year Treasury Yields: Up, Up, And Away?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A confirmed BOSO breakout follows both a MACD histogram positive divergence and a sizable MACD histogram peak....
Will Lumber Find A Soft Landing?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...January lumber futures retest contract lows in October....
BOSO Plays In The Diamonds And QQQQs Keep Climbing
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Overbought markets continue to bring gains to early adopters....
A Peak In Wheat? Negative Divergences Suggest A Turn In Early October
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After a year and a half of soaring wheat prices, is the MACD histogram hinting at reversal?...
Bounding Into Resistance: Positive Divergences Send December Natural Gas Higher
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Positive divergences in both the MACD histogram and the stochastic anticipated a move higher in natural gas futures in October....
Websites For Traders: ForexFactory by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Websites For Traders: ForexFactory by David Penn FOREXFACTORY.COM Until convinced otherwise, I still contend that the message-board is the greatest product of the Internet revolution. Inasmuch as the Internet is about connectivity, what could be more important than the development of virtual places where people from different walks of life can virtually meet and exchange often very real ideas? For traders, who often live a solitary existence, the message-board is a great source of information, observation, trading ideas, and simply community. While the loneliness of the retail trader is pr...
Working Money: Trading The Stars
Working Money: The Godfather Rules Of Trading by David Penn
Moving Average Trios
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...How to use a combination of three moving averages to find the sweet spot in a market move....
Measures And Half Measures
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...What happens when a market's measured move makes it halfway?...
A Cup With Handle In Transports
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As crude oil breaks down, the consolidation in the Dow Jones transports hints at a move higher....
Should You Buy The Dollar?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Positive divergences, bullish moving average alignments, and overbought conditions combine to make the greenback attractive....
A Head & Shoulders Top In REITs
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Has the great REIT rally finally run out of upside?...
A Lift In Lumber
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Positive divergences and a stochastic pop lead lumber higher in May....
A Crude Pause
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A pause in the crude oil bounce as oil stocks test historic highs....
The S&P 500's Intraday Ascending Triangle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A pair of 2B tops helps mark the upper boundary of an ascending triangle....
Intraday 2B Tops In The June Emini S&P 500
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ..."What we have here is a failure to follow through..."...
Heavy On The Hog
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The bearish implications of a double top tip the scales toward a breakdown in July hogs....
Silver Signals Higher ... And Lower
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Will the third triangle be the charm?...
Semiconductors Break Out
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After slipping into a sideways consolidation in the autumn of 2006, semiconductor stocks broke out in the spring of 2007....
Measured Moves In Housing
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...How far will the bounce in housing stocks go?...
Cattle Turns The Corner
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Daily charts in both live and feeder cattle suggest a pause in the commodities' bull runs....
Coffee Comes In, Part 2
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A failed breakout searches for support ... and another opportunity for a rally....
Long-Term Trend Trading
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Turtle trading as an analytic tool....
Charting Cramer: GS And MO by David Penn
Be Like Buffett
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...For the past seven years, money manager Doug Davenport and The Wisdom Fund have offered investors a chance at investing in stocks "Warren's way."...
Testing The Breakout
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The current correction in the Dow Jones Industrial Average so far reflects little more than testing former resistance for present support....
A 2B Top In The Euro?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Failure to follow through above the December 2006 highs provides an opportunity for correction or reversal in the EUR/USD....
King Corn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Will corn futures ever correct?...
Cocoa's Spring Offensive
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After putting in a seasonal bottom in October, cocoa futures continue to ramp higher into March....
The Sweet Suffering Of Sugar
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Will sugar find a bottom in springtime?...
June Crude Rally Retreats At Resistance
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Three months' worth of price consolidation prove a barrier to crude oil's attempt to move higher in early March....
Short-Term 2B Bottom In The S&P 500
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...In another sign of waning momentum to the downside in the S&P 500, a 2B pattern appears....
The Gold Correction
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Divergences tell the tale of the March bounce in June gold....
Waving The Gold
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Competing theses on gold nevertheless suggest going lower before higher....
Building A Better Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...In the days after the market meltdown, the Standard & Poor's 500 continues to forge a bottom from oversold conditions and positive divergences....
Measured Moves In The Swiss Franc
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...One of the most straightforward ways to anticipate targets after breakouts and breakdowns helped Swiss franc traders exit profitably from a turn-of-the-year advance....
Transportation's Correction Destination
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A trend channel's upper boundary provides resistance to a rally transportation sector....
Negative Divergences And The USD/JPY Breakdown
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After two months of appreciation against the yen, the USD/JPY took a hard hit in February going into March....
Heavy Is The Heart Of The Homebuilders
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Negative divergences augur lower prices ahead for homebuilding stocks....
The QQQQ's 2B Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A classic reversal pattern helped traders anticipate the February 27th market meltdown in the NASDAQ 100....
Cotton Rising?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...It's far from summertime, but May cotton futures appear to be establishing a bottom that could see higher cotton prices over the next several weeks....
Betting On The Bounce
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A 50-plus point decline in the S&P 500 leaves traders looking for clues on when to climb back in....
Websites For Traders: ETFConnect.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 25:3 (74-75, 86): Websites For Traders: ETFConnect.com by David Penn For a while, market observers were convinced that exchange traded funds (ETFs) would demolish the market for mutual funds. It was only a few years ago that mainstream financial publications and websites featured columnist after columnist touting the benefits of exchange traded funds. "All the diversification of a mutual fund without the fees or complicated trading restrictions!" went the cry. You want exposure to biotech, but can't figure out which stocks to buy? Try a biotechnology ETF. Like the ap...
Working Money: Selling Naked Options
Negative Divergences And The Bond Bounce
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Lower peaks in the MACD histogram accompany the advance in the September Treasury note....
RSI: Platinum's Failure Swing
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Using the relative strength index to spot potential turns in the market....
Oil Service Stocks Test Support Of Trend Channel
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As the advance in oil prices stalls, oil service stocks move to the low end of a trend channel that has contained prices for months....
A Whiff Of Deflation
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Are falling silver prices anticipating a deflationary shock?...
A Fourth Wave Correction?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Bears once again look to overplay their hand during a summer correction....
July Copper: Support To Resistance
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The support that kept copper high in the spring threatens to become resistance in summer....
The USD/JPY Breakout Stalls At Target
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Bulls exit as a swing rule projection from a recent breakout in the greenback/yen is reached....
A 2B Bounce In Johnson & Johnson
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Corrections following surge peaks in the MACD histogram are worth watching....
A Reversal In Housing Stocks
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The measured move in the housing index takes a hit as interest rates spike higher....
Testing The Breakout
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The NASDAQ 100 drifts toward support at the level of its recent breakout....
The Golden Bounce
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Hourly charts of gold and gold stocks underscore the turnaround in late May....
Smells Like Reflation
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...An early test of the rally in rates looms on the horizon....
Working Money: Fifth Of A Fifth by David Penn
Website For Traders: optionMONSTER by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 25:6 (58-59): Website For Traders: optionMONSTER by David Penn OPTIONMONSTER.COM It is always interesting to see a new website that sets out to be a one-stop shop for market news and analysis. There are already more than a few such websites on the Internet, many of which have been around for several years. So one of the most obvious questions that comes to mind when encountering what is effectively a startup in this business is, "What have you got that the others don't?" After all, headlines are headlines, most actives are most active, and you would have to search fa...
Trading The Stars
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Morning and evening star patterns in the daily USD/CHF suggest opportunities for candlestick traders in foreign exchange....
Those Money-Making E-Minis
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Daytrading e-mini futures offer another way for stock market daytraders to play....
Dark Cloud Cover Caps Bond Rally
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A reversal pattern brings the bearishness of the stock market to the world of bonds....
Topping The Pound
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Bearish candlestick patterns anticipate a correction in the British pound/US dollar currency pair....
The QQQQ's Intraday Head & Shoulders Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The rally in the NASDAQ 100 lasted almost a month before a head & shoulders pattern signaled a correction....
A Working Wave Count For The S&P 500
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A late June bottom sets the stage for the last move higher in the bull market that began in March....
Positive MACDH Divergence At Support
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The US dollar/Swiss franc pair hints at reversal as year-to-date lows are tested in mid-July....
Cup With Handle Becomes Diamond
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A failed breakout sets up a diamond consolidation in the Dow transports....
Dollar Dark Cloud Cover
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A classic bearish reversal pattern in the second half of June put an end to the rally in the September greenback....
Breakouts, Directional Movement, And The DJIA
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A shift in positive directional movement accompanies a breakout in the Dow Jones industrials....
A 2B Test Of Bottom In The S&P 500
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The same formula that noted a bottom in March hints at another one in June....
Trend Channels: Breakouts And Breakdowns
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Do two short-term moves in opposite directions end up supporting the prevailing trend?...
Hammer Time For The Hourly S&P 500
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Hammer candlesticks help traders trade trend reversals and corrections alike....
Utilities, Divergences, And The StochRSI
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...What does Tushar Chande and Stanley Kroll's marriage of the stochastic and the relative strength index tell us about the potential for a bottom in utilities stocks?...
TRIX: Divergences And Hooks
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The triple-smoothed exponential moving average (TRIX) is a useful momentum oscillator that can provide signals in a number of ways....
Websites For Traders: ConsensusTraders.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Websites For Traders: ConsensusTraders.com by David Penn CONSENSUSTRADERS.COM Who hasn't wondered at one point or another if you could take all of the stocks, indexes, and averages out there and run them past all the various indicators and oscillators in technical analysis and come up with some massive, allencompassing technical screener? You could filter for only the kind of technical indicators you are interested in, as well as filtering in only those stocks, indexes, or market averages that you wanted to follow. At a glance -- and after flipping through more than a few pages -- you would ha...
Working Money: Charting Cramer: NYX, AAPL, And CSCO by David Penn
Breakouts, Pullbacks, And Gaming The 2B
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Another mild post-breakout pullback for the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index provides an opportunity to see 2B tops in action as short-term countertrend plays....
Charting Cramer: HAL
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...In a new series, Working-Money.com puts Mad Money's Jim Cramer to the technical test....
A Crude Bounce
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Positive divergences in the MACD histogram anticipated the late January bounce in crude oil prices....
Will The QQQQ Come Around?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After a bruising, week-long correction, positive divergences look to bring the quadruple Qs back....
The Trouble With Tech
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Disfavored seasonally, tech stocks struggle to make progress to the upside....
Correction Time For The Dollar
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Negative divergences signal a slowdown in the greenback's six-week ascent....
Are Housing Stocks Rolling Over?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Giddy talk of a bottom has shifted to anxiety about a market rallying into resistance....
The Biotech Bet Is Back
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Does the current test of support mean that biotech stocks are finally ready to move?...
Can Retail Be Trusted To Break Out?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The retail stock HOLDRS wedged higher, but negative divergences frustrated progress....
Will Bonds Test A Bottom?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Negative divergences set up the 10-year note for a correction and possible test of the summer 2006 bottom....
Coffee Comes In
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A late October breakout leads to soaring coffee prices just in time for Christmas....
Crackin' Crude
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Negative divergences in the MACD histogram and stochastic anticipated the reversal in oil stocks....
Working Money: Trading DI+/- by David Penn
Working Money: What's In A Trend? by David Penn
Fifth Of A Fifth?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Has the S&P 500 just begun its last surge higher?...
Jumpin' Nat(ural) Gas
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Few sectors are as seasonally favored at this time of the year as are natural gas stocks. How are they shaping up technically?...
Charting Cramer: GS And MO
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Rounding out Cramer's value picks for 2007 are a big-name investment banking firm and an even bigger-name blue chip....
The S&P 500's Fibonacci Foraging For A Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Will a key Fibonacci retracement level provide support for the falling S&P 500?...
Is The QQQQ Breakout At Hand?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Trapped in a trading range since early November, is the NASDAQ 100's tracking stock finally ready to move higher?...
Weekly 2B Bottom In Humana
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Another example of the march forward in health-care providers comes courtesy of an intermediate-term 2B bottom in shares of Humana....
A Temporary Top In Disney?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Once again, negative divergences and failed follow-through after a new high hint at lower prices for shares of Disney....
High Hopes For New Highs In Healthcare
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Hope springs eternal. And spring often brings high hopes for the stocks of health-care providers. How is 2007 shaping up in that regard?...
Biotech Comes In
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Negative divergences, engulfing candlesticks, and Fibonacci resistance conspire to send the biotechnology HOLDRS lower in mid-February....
2B Top Meets Freaky Friday
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Would Friday be a bullish or bearish event? Early on, the markets tipped traders off to the bear....
Sears Holdings' Super Sized Cup With Handle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Measuring more than 55 points, the cup with handle patterns in Sears Holdings projects upside to more than 200....
Four Points High And Rising
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Positive divergences in the MACD histogram and stochastic both point to higher long-term rates in the weekly chart of the $TNX....
Lower Before Higher For Gold
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Does a long-term sideways correction in gold need more downside?...
Websites For Traders: MaoXian by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 25:2 (75, 78): Websites For Traders: MaoXian by David Penn MAOXIAN.COM Come for the economic insights and financial analysis. Stay for the jpegs of Chinese hotties? I first came across MaoXian.com after spending a little time at another financial blog, TraderMike.net (tradermike.net). The phrase "MaoXian" apparently means "to take a risk" and at its most basic, MaoXian.com -- a blog run pseudonymously by "Chairman MaoXian" -- spends much of its time discussing developments in Chinese economics and society in addition to serving up analysis and commentary on ETFs, US equ...
Websites For Traders: Pinksheets.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 25:2 (57): Websites For Traders: Pinksheets.com by David Penn PINKSHEETS.COM Many is the successful broker who, although currently trading blue chips, got his or her start patrolling the market for over-the-counter stocks known as the "pink sheets," looking to find that elusive three-dollar (or even three-cent) stock primed to go gangbusters. As you might imagine, three-cent stocks tend not to be the most investment grade of equities, which is one reason why a stock might find itself delisted from the exchanges and making a home for itself in the pink sheets (so-call...
Websites For Traders DailyFX.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Websites For Traders DailyFX.com by David Penn DAILYFX.COM In writing about the rise of foreign exchange trading among everyday retail traders, a frequent lament has been the lack of quality news, analysis, and information resources. Although the currency pages of publications like The Financial Times and, to a lesser degree, The Wall Street Journal have provided a great deal of what currency traders need in order to be up to date on the vagaries of forex trading, the fact is that there remain precious few online resources for forex traders compared to those trading other financial instrument...
TRIX Two Ways, Part II
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Trading divergences, golden crosses, and falls with the classic momentum indicator. Installment 2 of two....
The Godfather Rules Of Trading
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Everybody wants to give you trading advice. How about some advice you can't refuse?...
TRIX Two Ways, Part I
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...There's more than one way to trade this classic momentum indicator....
Forward With Pfizer?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A positive divergence sets shares of Pfizer up for a test of resistance at the 50-day exponential moving average....
The Corn Correction
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The divergence after the divergence suggests a potential test of summer lows....
December Bonds Drive Into Resistance
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Negative divergences develop as the 10-year Treasury nears contract highs....
Barrick Gold's 2B Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Look, Ma, no indicators! How resistance, new highs, and a failure to follow through helped traders trade the top in ABX....
September Greenback: Histogram Hints Higher
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The MACD histogram peak in the second half of August suggests that the US dollar's advance has more room to run....
The Wheat Diamond
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A diamond breakout in September wheat begins another leg higher....
USD/CHF: Positive Divergences And Hammer Candlestick Lines
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ..."I'm not dead yet!" cried the greenback, as divergences and reversal patterns hint at a bottom....
Upside Opportunities In The S&P 500
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Intraday divergences and candlestick reversal patterns hint at a higher S&P in the early days of August....
Divergences And The Dow Jones Utilities Index
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Positive divergences in the second half of July helped create a bottom in the falling DJUA....
Belt Holds Bolster The Dollar
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A pair of bullish belt hold patterns in the greenback suggest near-term strength....
Working Money: Moving Average Trios by David Penn
The Dollar And Deflation
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As the dollar moves toward a test of long-term lows, fears of inflation have completely eclipsed the possibility of a reversal in the greenback....
Charting Cramer: NYX, AAPL, And CSCO
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The previous installment of "Charting Cramer" drew attention to the King of Cramerica's value picks for 2007. This time, we turn our attention toward stocks that represent opportunities for growth....
The QQQQ's Broadening Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...This pattern suggests even more upside for the NASDAQ 100....
Transports Hesitate At The Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Are the Dow transports failing to confirm the new highs in the Dow industrials?...
Gold Meets Resistance
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Are the gold stocks saying something important about the potential for new highs in gold?...
BOSO And The S&P 500 Breakout
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...When does momentum really matter?...
2B Test Of Bottom In The US Dollar-Swiss Franc
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As the US dollar continues its slow-motion, spontaneous combustion before our very eyes, an important test against the Swiss franc looms....
Bear Hunting In The Canadian Currency
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Looking for a long-term bear market that's showing signs of reversal? Try the USD/CAD currency pair....
The Q's Hourly Double Bottom And Successful Test
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...March came in like a lion ... with a market bottom in tow....
The Three 2Bs
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...For picking tops and bottoms, always bet on 2B....
Buy The Biotech Hype?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Inundated with calls to invest in biotech stocks? There are a few technical reasons why waiting shouldn't be the hardest part....
Websites: Angrybear.blogspot.com and Kudlowsmoneypolitics.blogspot.com by D. Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 25:4 (63-64): Websites: Angrybear.blogspot.com and Kudlowsmoneypolitics.blogspot.com by D. Penn A staple of public television -- and cable news, before it blew up in the Bush era -- dueling commentators from the political left and the political right used to be the chief expression of political partisanship in the media: "From the left, I'm so-and-so." "And from the right, I'm the-other-guy." That collegiality -- however exaggerated for effect -- is not nearly as common in recent years as it was, say, a decade ago. But it is with that sentiment that I present a pair of blo...
Working Money: Breakouts, Pullbacks, And Gaming The 2B by David Penn
Product Review: Elwave 8 by David Penn
Product Review: Odds Maker by David Penn
Product Review: Direct Pro by David Penn
Product Review: Options Spreads: Generating Exceptional Returns... by David Penn
Product Review: Foundational Analysis: Select Winning Stocks...by David Penn
Product Review: Commodity Explorer by David Penn
Product Review: Optionstar 2 by David Penn
Product Review Power Ratings by David Penn
Product Review: ChartSmart by David Penn
Product Review: FXCM Trading Station II & GFT DealBook 360 by David Penn
Product Review: Reuters PowerScreener 3.0 by David Penn
Steve Nison's Profiting In Forex: Using Candlesticks To Catch The Next Move
What's In A Trend?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Trendlines, moving averages, and directional movement: three ways of knowing which way is up--or down....
Between Support And Resistance
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...December gold features two key levels that will have to be exceeded before traders know which way is up ... or down....
The Fall Of Feeder Cattle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Cattle futures tumble toward a source of potential Fibonacci support....
Cleared For Takeoff?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Are airlines stocks getting a bid?...
Brokers Break Out
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Signs of a breakout in brokerage stocks can only be good for stocks....
Utilities Hold The Channel
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A trend channel from the April lows continues to define price action for the utilities sector....
Wave Count Update
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A fourth-wave correction looks to be the prelude to higher prices in the S&P 500....
Hedging Gas
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The implosion of a massive hedge fund reveals traders as once again too smart for their own good....
Housing Stocks Head Higher
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...When "BusinessWeek" magazine starts panicking, savvy traders start buying....
Stalking The New Highs
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Will the running negative divergences in the Dow Jones Industrial Average end the current rally — or merely slow it down?...
The Greenback Lows
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After a 10-month correction, could the US dollar's fortunes be on the verge of improvement?...
2B Top In The Standard & Poor's 100
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Failure to follow through to the upside after the move higher at the end of August could bring an end to the summer rally....
Waving The Biotechs
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...An Elliott wave analysis of the consolidation in biotechnology stocks underscores the potential for weakness....
Websites For Traders: www.TradingTheCharts.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 24:9 (67, 97): Websites For Traders: www.TradingTheCharts.com by David Penn What's in a message-board? Well, if that message-board is TradingTheCharts.com, then the answer is "A boon for technical traders," that's what. Increasingly, certain forms of communication like message-boards and personal web pages (or blogs) seem to have become the veritable architecture of the Internet cityscape. And the near-ubiquity of these two forms says a great deal about what people find most useful about the Internet. Insofar as I have pointed to a few of what I consider the most inte...
Working Money: The Case For New Highs by David Penn
Nonconfirmations And Back Again
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Nonconfirmations follow nonconfirmations ... will the transports follow the industrials?...
Trading DI+/-
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Can directional movement analysis improve your trading results?...
Know Jack
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Educator, investor, trader ... Jack Steiman shows you how to move from emotion to "appropriateness."...
A Pan American Silver Corp. 2B Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A hammer candlestick puts the finishing touches on a picture-perfect 2B bottom in early October....
Buying The OIH Pullback
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Is there ever a good reason to average down?...
Basic Materials? Come On Down!
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Breaking out above the 50% retracement level, basic materials stocks show more room to run....
2B Tops In Downtrends
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Another method of determining when a bounce in a downtrend may have run its course is the short-term 2B top....
Are Energy Stocks Powering Up?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Positive directional movement in the daily chart of energy stocks suggests more bounce for energies....
Biotech Breakout
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Weekly charts suggest that biotech stocks may have finally made their move higher....
Is Coffee Creeping Lower?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A descending triangle is one hint that a test of the lows is likely....
Weeklies And Dailies: A Tale Of Two Charts
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Think you missed your moment? Try changing your time frame....
Greenbacks And Gold
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Weekly directional movement suggests upside for the former and downside for the latter....
Websites For Traders: Thomson I-Watch by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 24:10 (66-67): Websites For Traders: Thomson I-Watch by David Penn Could someone explain to me why a website as helpful as Thomson IWatch can't have a more straightforward URL? Such is the world of mergers and acquisitions, e-commerce style, I suppose. Thomson Financial + Lycos + (apparently) Quote.com = one tricky uniform resource locator. I threw in Quote.com because of the 12 links at the top of the page that features I-Watch, which is an interactive, graphic display of institutional buying and selling, nine take you to resources at the Quote.com website. Of the oth...
Sideways Semiconductors
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Waiting for signs of directionality as the semiconductor HOLDRS works its way through a potential 1-2-3 trend reversal setup....
A Cup With Handle For Treasury Notes
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A classic chart pattern suggests bullish times for bonds....
The Corn Correction
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A 2B top is in the making as the corn bull market begins a well-deserved break....
The Bounce In Homebuilding
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Weekly directional movement points to more upside for homebuilding stocks....
The S&P 500's Cup With Handle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A classic chart pattern suggests more upside for the S&P 500 as the holiday season begins....
Copper Cracks
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The much-anticipated breakout from a multimonth symmetrical triangle has arrived....
Short-Term QQQQ Sell?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...What happens when long-term bulls become short-term bears?...
Is The End Near?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The first positive divergence in the hourly chart of the QQQQ since the late October top offers hope for the bulls....
Wave Count 2006: Part 2
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...This Elliott wave analysis of the cyclical bull market that began in the autumn of 2002 ends with a review and projection of the rally since the 2004 lows....
Counting On Consumers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As an economy moves from expansion to contraction, savvy investors move from smokestacks to cupboards and cabinets....
Retesting The Lows
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Assuming the market doesn't crash in the last week of May and first week of June, the NYSE is setting up for an ideal test of the recent lows....
A 1-2-3 Bounce In Gold
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A cycle swing sets up a short-term low in unhedged gold mining stocks. The 1-2-3 trend reversal helps traders and speculators take advantage of it....
Dancin' Days For The Dollar?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Bouncing off the lows as gold suffers through a major correction, how much upside does the greenback have left?...
Bucking For A Bounce?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A rebound from intraday lows sets up the possibility of higher prices in stocks by the Memorial Day weekend....
Doomed By The Divergence
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Negative divergences in the Russell 2000 signaled the potential for weakness in late May....
Fibonacci, Trading Ranges, And A Semiconductor Bounce
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Where will the falling Philadelphia Semiconductor Index find support?...
Trading Ranges
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Does the NASDAQ 100's recent trading range suggest the magnitude of the move down?...
Google And Fibonacci
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The first major correction in GOOG found support at one Fibonacci level. Will a subsequent correction in GOOG find support at another?...
Why Aren't These Gold Stocks Smiling?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With gold ramping to historic highs, many gold stocks remain less than enthusiastic....
The Two Trendlines Of Starbucks Corp.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Breaking down below a short-term trendline, Starbucks stock finds support above a long-term one....
Bucking For A Breakout?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Does the triangular consolidation in the hourly chart of the S&P 500 suggest that a significant move to the upside is likely in the near term?...
Death To The Death Of The Dollar
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A massive, two-year head & shoulders bottom suggests an upside surprise for dollar bears....
Working Money: Liquidity And Growth by David Penn
Dial "D" For Divergences
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Are all divergences created equal? Here's some instruction for catching turns in market direction....
Liquidity And Growth
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Cash on the sidelines and revenue growth are still the primary ingredients for any sustained market rally....
Holding The Breakout
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The meandering of the Standard & Poor's 500 in recent days may be a positive....
Boeing's Beautiful BOSO Breakouts
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Being overbought has its benefits for Boeing in 2006....
The Gold Bug Bounce
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As the mid-March lows hint at a bottom in gold, gold stocks head higher....
Triangle Target
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The minimum price objective reached, the breakout from a symmetrical triangle in the Dow Jones Industrial Average meets resistance....
Rate Rally Retreats At Resistance
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Resistance at the upper boundary of a trend channel sets up a short-term 2B top and a pullback in yields....
A Working Wave Count For The Greenback
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The correction in the US dollar since November 2005 looks to be more than halfway completed....
How Low Can Crude Go?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A bearish flag sets the stage for lower lows in crude in the spring of 2006....
Dow Theory Update
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Dow industrials and transports set spring goals in their late February retreat from year-to-date highs....
Newmont's Head & Shoulders Top Redux
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Another year, another head & shoulders top sends gold stocks on a correction course....
From Breakout To Pullback
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After breaking out in mid-February and reaching its minimum upside price projection, the S&P 500 retraced nearly 50% of its gains. Now back at the breakout highs, the bulls find themselves bucking for more....
Fakeouts And Breakouts
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A 1-2-3 trend reversal becomes a bear trap as positive divergences power the $SPX toward new, year-to-date highs....
Bears Lay Wood To Lumber
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As lumber futures plummet toward a 61.8% retracement of their August–December rally, would-be buyers find themselves looking for a bounce....
Trendlines, Light Volume, And Live Cattle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A trendline break and a bounce on light volume spell reversal for February cattle futures....
Websites For Traders: SectorUpdates.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 24:3 (75): Websites For Traders: SectorUpdates.com by David Penn As a trader, do your eyes light up or glaze over when the subject shifts to market sectors? For most fundamentally oriented traders, my guess would be the former rather than the latter. After all, the idea that it is beneficial to study the various sectors into which industries, companies, and stocks are divided is predicated on the concept that the economic cycle plays a disproportionate influence on certain stocks at certain times. Other fundamentally oriented types look to the monetary cycle -- the patt...
The Case for New Highs
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...An alternative Elliott wave count suggests that the summer 2006 correction is a prelude to even higher stock prices....
Betting On Biotech
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...What happens when you combine the promise of cutting-edge technology with the insights of 21st-century biology? How about a biotechnology sector that is primed for growth?...
The OIH Island Gap
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A gap up in oil service stocks leads to a low-volume island consolidation and a gap up breakout....
The Dow Breakout: 1-2-3
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The resolution of a 1-2-3 trend reversal is a 200-point-plus breakout....
Leading By Transports
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...While both the Dow industrials and the transports have broken out above downtrend lines, it is the transportation average that is leading the fight to best the June highs....
Unwinding Bonds
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Rising long-term interest rates in the face of an aggressive Federal Reserve, falling gold, and a rising dollar raise suspicions among some observers....
Launching Pads
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...An hourly symmetrical triangle in the S&P 500 suggests opportunity in volatility....
Gold Bugs Bide Their Time
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With a window of opportunity for a significant low beginning to open, patience may be a gold bug's best friend....
Channeling Bottoms
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The correction in the first half of summer 2006 brings the S&P 500 to a potentially significant source of support....
TTT For TTH
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Looking for a sector that is still in a bull market? The answer may be in your pocket....
Bye-Bye, Banks
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The early summer correction takes its toll on brokers and banks....
A Bottom And A Bounce In Bonds
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Do divergences mean that the bond market's long nightmare has finally ended?...
Bear Flag Suggests Downside Destination
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A longed-for bounce in the Dow's descent turns into a pattern anticipating further declines....
How The Utilities Got Their Groove Back
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Intraday positive divergences in the stochastic helped traders in utilities shares find a bottom....
Divergences In Cotton
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...It's summertime. Do positive divergences in the stochastic and moving average convergence/divergence histogram mean that cotton will be high this year?...
Cotton's Come Up(pance)
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A cotton bounce in late 2004 looks to have come to an end in mid-2006....
Websites For Traders: BusinessTalkRadio.net by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 24:6 (79): Websites For Traders: BusinessTalkRadio.net by David Penn BUSINESSTALKRADIO.NET Some websites of most interest to investors, speculators, and traders are veritable Meccas of valuable information in and of themselves. Although certainly a dying breed since the dotcom implosion half a decade ago, a few Internet sites remain where someone interested in the mood and movement of the stock, commodity, options, or foreign exchange markets could get some pretty good analysis, interpretation, or tools, all the while spending little more than the time it takes to typ...
Working Money: Dial "D" For Divergences by David Penn
Medicals On The Move
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A bullish engulfing pattern in Zimmer Holdings is confirmed by positive divergences in both the stochastic and the MACD histogram....
Candlesticks And Patterns
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...What do you get when you cross a bearish engulfing pattern with a 2B top--and a negative stochastic divergence?...
Cracks In The Crude
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A 2B top at the weekly level and a pair of negative divergences at the daily level suggest that the upside in crude might be limited in the near-term....
Cannons And Trumpets
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Time to party like it's 1982?...
A Head & Shoulders Top In Oil Service?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Car bombs in Iraq, nuclear profileration in Iran, airstrikes in Lebanon ... so why aren't these oil stocks smiling?...
The Golden Pullback
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Take a look at the mid-June bounce in December gold....
A 2B Bottom Test In The Dow
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Is the long-sought-after bottom in the DJIA finally at hand?...
Tests And Trendlines
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Here's a look at the S&P 500 since the May peak, by way of Sperandeo's 1-2-3 trend reversal....
Extended To The Upside
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Lows in June have provided for tradable bounces in many markets. The next measure of strength will be in how these markets handle the inevitable distribution....
Divergences In The Dollar
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Negative divergences in the US Dollar Index suggest a pullback and potential test of the May lows....
Websites For Traders: The Big Picture by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 24:7 (96-98): Websites For Traders: The Big Picture by David Penn THE BIG PICTURE http://bigpicture.typepad.com Think Jim Cramer is the only former hedge-fund gunner turned media star who's got a flair for language? ""Last week, I jokingly referred to the notion that the Tax Cuts Crashed Market. It was a tongue-in-cheek reference to the foolish notion of ascribing a single causative factor to the elaborately intricate dance that defines daily market action ? I guess I shouldn't have been surprised when the talking point went out and Fox News blamed the market drop o...
Working Money: Paper Money And Its Promises by David Penn
Airlines & Oil
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The same stuff that makes airplanes go up makes their stocks go up... and down...
2005 Recap
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Dow averages entered the year in gear. But 12 months later, the transports and industrials were talking two different games altogether....
Honeywell's Piercing Pattern Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A classic "two-stick" candlestick pattern augurs a bounce in Honeywell....
The S&P's Intraday 2B
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A 2B bottom and a positive divergence show how the SPOO got its groove back in time for the New Year -- the Chinese New Year, that is....
The Cocoa Correction Cometh
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Negative divergences in the MACD histogram and stochastics augur a change in course for March cocoa's nearly two-month advance....
Silver Spurred
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A cup with handle consolidation from December through January leads to a breakout in silver futures....
An Intraday Dow Diamond
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...January came in like a lion. Does an intraday reversal pattern anticipate that January will go out like a lion as well?...
Caterpillar's Diamond Breakout
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A December diamond consolidation leads to higher prices in January....
A Sweet Breakout
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Is the price of crude oil lifting sugar prices higher?...
Faltering Financials
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A head & shoulders top sends financial stocks tumbling on a day of widespread selling in the market....
A Cup With Handle Consolidation In Networking Stocks
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Does an October-December consolidation in the Amex Networking Index suggest more upside once a January pullback runs its course?...
From Consolidation To Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Consolidations in trends are often resolved by further movement in the direction of the previous trend. This is not one of those consolidations....
Tomorrow's News Today
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A positive stochastic divergence in the hourly chart of the NASDAQ 100 prepared traders for an "up" morning the day before January options expired....
The Emini S&P's Cup With Handle Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Blood on the streets in Tokyo leads to a short-term buying opportunity in New York....
Bids In Gold?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Reversals in the MACD histogram in gold, gold stock indexes, and mining shares suggest yellow metal leadership in the market's next leg up....
Bread Breakdown
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A head & shoulders top threatens to send shares of Panera Bread Co. lower....
The Dow Industrials' Hourly Rising Wedge Breakdown
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A negative stochastic divergence confirms a breakdown from a rising wedge....
The Oil Service HOLDRS DLB Breakout
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As far as meaningful breakouts are concerned, you can't go home again....
A Breakout In Coffee
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...I like my coffee the way I like my breakouts: "Strong as the devil and sweet as love."...
Stern Warning
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A bearish engulfing candlestick puts an emphatic cap on gains in Sirius Satellite....
Better Living Through Chemistry
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...While most stocks slid sideways in December 2005, pharmaceutical stocks -- as measured by the PPH -- soared....
Rally In Your Eye
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...On the penultimate day of bulllish seasonals, the market sends shorts scurrying for the exits....
Housing And Histograms
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Divergences in the MACD histogram and stochastic accompany a test of the 61.8% retracement of the $HGX July-October decline....
Another Double Divergence In Copper
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Will the second time be the charm for copper bears?...
Working Money: Trading With Trendlines by David Penn
Websites For Traders: SafeHaven.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 24:1 (32-33): Websites For Traders: SafeHaven.com by David Penn SAFEHAVEN.COM In a world only recently removed from cast-in-stone expectations of double-digit returns on invested income, the idea of a website dedicated to the "preservation of capital" must sound as exciting as watching grass grow. After all, with three decades' worth of inflation--of both the physical kind and the asset kind--you are more likely to hear "preservation" in the context of wildlife wetlands than in the context of sound (to say nothing of shrewd) financial planning. But as an increasing numb...
Divergences Drive The Dollar Higher
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Positive divergences in the MACD histogram and stochastic bring about a badly needed bounce in the greenback....
Can't Beat The Banks
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A breakout in the banking index suggests more upside is possible for the financial sector....
Google's 1-2-3 Course Correction
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Starting with a wide-ranging, high-volume down day, the year-to-date correction in Google was an orderly 1-2-3 event....
Telecom's Triumphant Breakout
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Consolidation in January leads to a big-time breakout in February....
Can Copper Be Topped?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Has the "never too high to buy" thesis struck again?...
Here Comes Coffee
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Positive divergences in the MACD histogram and stochastic suggest opportunities in the hourly chart of July coffee....
Bounce In February
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...What does the Dow theory buy signal mean for the rest of the market?...
Confirming Industrials
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Breaking free from a symmetrical triangle in mid-February, the Dow industrials confirmed the earlier move higher in the transports -- and set up the markets for higher prices overall....
The Dow's Tempting Triangle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After weeks of uncertainty, does a symmetrical triangle in the Dow Jones industrials signal a return to trending markets?...
Diverging The Gold
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Negative stochastic divergences anticipate softness in prices for the yellow metal....
The S&P 500's Bernanke Bounce
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Positive divergences in the MACD histogram and stochastic hint that an end to the first major correction of 2006 may be at hand....
Halliburton Returns To Its Breakout
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Was the late January rally a "don't look back" breakout?...
Crude Comes In (Again)
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Bouncing off support from a years-long trend channel, crude oil's short-term weakness could be a prelude to longer-term strength....
A Long-Term Look At The S&P 500
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A monthly view of the 2002–06 bull market in stocks suggests that the higher we go, the weaker we get....
Divergences In Trends
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A take on a tale of two divergences in the late January rally in the NYSE....
Return Of The Son Of Another Rate Rally
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...An old support level turned resistance suggests that prices for 10-year notes are likely to continue lower before moving higher....
Websites For Traders: Tom Brown's Bankstocks.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 24:2 (96-97): Websites For Traders: Tom Brown's Bankstocks.com by David Penn I first began paying attention to bank stocks as a group after doing an interview with Cassandra Tororian, the former sell-side bank stock analyst who founded Financialmuse.com, an online bank, brokerage, and financial resource designed especially for women. As Tororian said in that interview back in March 2001 about bank stocks: The funny part was, when you go through business school they teach you how to read the balance sheets and income statements of companies. But banks? Banks are total...
Working Money: BOSO by David Penn
Trading The MACD Histogram, Part II
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Here's a look at trading histogram divergences and crosses of the zero line, targeting specific entries, and examining exit strategies....
Selling Naked Options
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Is there a way for the average trader to trade options the way the professionals do?...
Trading The MACD Histogram, Part 1
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As good as the moving average convergence/ divergence is, adding the histogram might make it even better....
Gold's Three Trends
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Bullish long-term, bearish intermediate term ... what does a near-term breakout mean for gold going forward?...
Transports Take A Hike
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Negative MACD histogram divergences and a breakdown from a consolidation suggest lower prices ahead....
Dollar Divergences: Up And Down
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Negative divergences took the dollar down in October. Will positive divergences bring the dollar back up a year later?...
Q Is For Consolidation
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Consolidations in trends tend to lead to more trend. Will this hold true for the autumn consolidation in the QQQQ?...
Short-Term 2B Bottom In Hourly QQQQ
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A correction ends with a classic bottoming pattern....
A Head & Shoulders Top In Retail?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...An autumn consolidation in the retail HOLDRS hints at the possibility of a move lower for retail stocks....
Black Gold Is Back
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Breakouts in oil stocks appear as the group moves toward a seasonal sweet spot....
Websites For Traders: News Traders Can Use by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 24:12 (74-75): Websites For Traders: News Traders Can Use by David Penn www.tradersaudio.com www.needtoknownews.com A subscriber recently emailed me about trading groups. He had been trading for only a short time, with the goal of one day being a full-time trader. He explained that what he felt he needed at this point in his education was, for lack of a better term, the personal touch. He was looking for trading groups, get-togethers where dedicated, committed traders talked shop: winning trades, losing trades, setups that were working, setups that weren't, sector ro...
Websites For Traders: TraderTim.blogspot.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 24:12 (72-73): Websites For Traders: TraderTim.blogspot.com by David Penn Technical analysis and stock charts with Tim Knight The charts, the whole charts, and nothing but the charts. That is the unequivocal effect of reading the weblog of Tim Knight, founder of Prophet Financial Systems and currently senior vice president of technology at INVESTools, the company that purchased Prophet.net in 2005. Knight, whose Prophet charts have long been a favorite of this writer, is a chartists' chartist. And while his blog allows much of his personality to show through -- as the ...
Websites For Traders: www.IPOHome.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 24:12 (62-64, 86): Websites For Traders: www.IPOHome.com by David Penn IPO Home by Renaissance Capital For a few years back in the late 1990s, saying "IPO" around a group of anxious investors was like shouting "Pull!" at a skeet shooting range. I can still remember the gray-haired, Birkenstock-wearing left-wing computer geek I worked for during the bubble years strutting around the office as he mentally counted the amount of money he had made just that afternoon because he had been one of the fortunate few who had received shares of VA Linux just as the company went p...
Working Money: Midterm Miracles by David Penn
Accumulation and Distribution
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Here are the basics on buying and selling with the big boys....
Midterm Miracles
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Buy the midterm elections and sell the Presidential? There's a way to profit from political cycles....
The Apple Triangle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...An ascending triangle interrupts a rally in shares of Apple Computer. Is it the pause that refreshes?...
Two Bullish Breaks For The NASDAQ 100
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Breakouts above a three-month downtrend line and a one-month uptrend line are positives....
Gold's 61.8% Limit
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The summer rally in gold fails at a Fibonacci retracement level. Will the June lows be tested next?...
The Sugar Triangle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A look at how a symmetrical triangle in sugar futures heralded the end of a major rally....
The Copper Triangle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A symmetrical triangle in copper futures sets up the possibility for a dramatic increase in volatility when prices break free....
The Google Triangle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Is the Great Goog-angle tradable?...
Bonds Bounce
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Breaking out above a multimonth downtrend line, the 10-year note successfully tests an old high for support....
Mr. Softy's Head & Shoulders Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A breakout meanders before gapping higher on the day of options expiration....
Summer Waves
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Here's an Elliott wave look at the June bottom in the Standard & Poor's 500....
A 2B Bottom In Airlines
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Falling oil stocks contribute to a sense of "bottom" in plummeting airline stocks....
A Cooling Off For Fiery Financials
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Soaring financial stocks take a badly needed break....
A 2B Top Threatens S&P Reversal
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Failure to follow through to the upside after the August 4th breakout was an ominous sign for S&P bulls....
About That Telecom Turnaround
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A 1-2-3 trend reversal setup in Comverse Technology sets up the potential for another rising stock in the telecom sector....
A Short-Term 2B Bottom In Oil Service
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Failure to follow through to the downside provides an opportunity for a bounce in OIH....
Websites For Traders: PowerOptions WeBlog by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 24:8 (88): Websites For Traders: PowerOptions WeBlog by David Penn POWEROPTIONS WEBLOG Consider this website review a heads up. PowerOptions WeBlog (http://blog. poweropt.com) is geared toward options trading and education, but my sense is that PowerOptions WeBlog is a project that is just getting under way and any full assessment of what it has to offer will probably be best accomplished months from now. So think of this as an opportunity to say you were reading the PowerOptions blog before it was cool, before "everybody" was doing it. And who knows? By following so...
Websites For Traders: www.FreeMoneyFinance.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 24:8 (60-61): Websites For Traders: www.FreeMoneyFinance.com by David Penn WWW.FREEMONEYFINANCE.COM Who was it who said that common wisdom was not so common? I was reading some reviews of a book published some 90-years ago titled The Richest Man In Babylon. Written by George S. Clason and first published back in 1926(!), the book -- subtitled "The success secrets of the ancients" -- contains what has been described as "commonsensical" wisdom on thrift and savings dressed up in a pseudo-Biblical language (hence the richest man "in Babylon"). Here's a taste from a chapter...
Working Money: Counting On Consumers by David Penn
Wave Count 2006
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Flats and double threes, triangles and zigzags -- here's the latest look at the Standard & Poor's 500 through the lens of Elliott wave analysis....
Paper Money And Its Promises
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Long-term charts of the dollar, bonds, crude oil, and gold help set the table for investors and speculators in 2006. Part 1 of two....
Corn Closes The Gap
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Breakaway gaps mark July corn's more than four-month-long rally....
Cup (Of Sugar) With Handle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The year-to-date consolidation in sugar futures could be hinting at more historic highs to come....
Good Times For Gold?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Signs point to a significant bottom in March, which suggests near-term corrections may be excellent opportunities to the long side....
1-2-3 Trend Reversal In Retail
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A two-month rally in retail stocks finds itself reversed in April....
A Head & Shoulders Bottom In Triple H?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Has the long, year-to-date nightmare in Internet stocks finally passed?...
More Sideways
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Negative divergences in the NYSE suggest sideways action in the second half of April....
All Aboard Apple?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A MACDH spike and a bull flag suggest the possibility of upside in shares of Apple Computer....
Saying No To Drugs
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Is the market's rejection of drug stocks hinting at an opportunity in growth stocks?...
Silver's King-Sized Cup With Handle Pattern
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A note on silver's rally above $12 and how it got there....
Crude Oil's Triangle-In-Progress
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The symmetrical triangle in continuous crude oil futures is well worth watching....
The Return Of Tempting Triangles
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The last tempting triangle prepared Dow investors for a 386-point ride. Now an ascending triangle in the weekly S&P 500 suggests more upside....
Transports Take the Lead (Again)
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A breakout in the Dow transports again raises the bar for the Dow industrials. Will the Dow industrials — and the rest of the market — follow suit?...
Websites For Traders: MadMoneyRecap.com by David Penn
Charting The Market: Swing Rule by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 24:4 (10-15): Charting The Market: Swing Rule by David Penn What do the measuring rule for double bottoms, head & shoulders tops and bottoms, cups with handles, double tops, rectangle bottoms and tops, ascending and descending triangles, and a host of other chart patterns have in common? All of these patterns rely on the size of the pattern to help determine the minimum extent of a breakout or breakdown. In doing so, these measurement rules actually invoke a principle written about years ago by Stan Weinstein in his classic investment primer, ""Secrets For Profiting I...
Product Review: OmniTrader 2006 by David Penn
Product Review: AmiBroker 4.80 by David Penn
Product Review: TechniTrader Home Study Training Course by David Penn
Product Review: OptionsXpress by David Penn
Product Review: FX Solutions GTS by David Penn
Product Review: E-Gate by David Penn
Product Review: IQ Trader by David Penn
Product Review: SoftInvestor by David Penn
Product Review: Market Master Xec by David Penn
StrataSearch 3.0
Marty Unterreiner Of ProActiveMoney.com
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Have the market's day-to-day movements got you overlooking the investment forest for the trading trees?...
The Case For Higher Prices
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A higher low follows a lower high in the S&P 500 ... could a triangle send the market higher?...
Are The Dollar Bears Done?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Positive divergences in the MACD histogram and the stochastic suggest limited downside for the US dollar....
NASDAQ Abandons Its Trend Channel
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Midway through its August journey, the NASDAQ broke through a season's worth of support....
The Confirmation Next Time
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Will the Dow industrials follow the Dow transports to a break below the August lows?...
A 1-2-3 Trend Reversal In The S&P 500
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The v-shaped post-Katrina rally ends not with a bang, but with a trendline break....
Bullish Engulfing Piercing Pattern Bottom Baby
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With apologies to Tom Wolfe, the late August reversal in the SPDRs provided plenty of clues for those short to become long....
Tells For A Top?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The top in 2000 was preceded by a running negative stochastic divergence on the monthly charts. Now, a similar pattern is emerging in the autumn of 2005....
Elliott Wave Update
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Wave 1 ended with August. Is wave 2 already all but complete?...
Portrait Of A Short Squeeze
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...From Cindy to Katrina, piggish bears have overplayed their hand in September....
Transports Find Support At Old Breakout
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Looking for the true measure of the move as an old breakout level supports a bounce in the Dow transports....
The Parable Of Coffee And The Blind Traders
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The end of a downtrend and the resumption of an uptrend loom in coffee futures....
Bonds Bounce Back
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A positive stochastic divergence following a 1-2-3 rule reversal sends bonds up and rates down in August....
Websites For Traders: PrudentBear.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 23:9 (56-57): Websites For Traders: PrudentBear.com by David Penn You know the routine from, ahem, Red State comedian Jeff Foxworthy? The one-liner intro that he has managed to parlay into a successful career as a stand-up comic: "You know you're a redneck if ?" Well, I don't know rednecks fromredcoats, but if you've got several PrudentBear.com entries in your Internet browser's history cache, then I know how to tell if you're a permabear ? Prudentbear.com, a website founded by David Tice of Tice & Associates, is either the best thing in the world or one of the worst...
Intermarket Review: Goldman Sachs by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 23:9 (52-53): Intermarket Review: Goldman Sachs by David Penn GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITIES INDEX (GSCI) SUBGROUP--PRECIOUS METALS ($GPX) The Goldman Sachs Commodities Index (GSCI) is a world-production weighted index of commodity prices based on the average quantity of production for the last five years of available data. In addition to being a benchmark against which commodity price performance can be judged, the subgroups of the GSCI are equally reliable measures of the price performance of the various commodities that make up the GSCI. The provided weekly charts of the...
Working Money: Bond. Long Bond. by David Penn
Gold Tops: Then And Now
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A look at the 1987 peak in gold suggests that the barbaric relic remains in bull market mode in 2005....
BOSO
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Buying the overbought and selling the oversold....
Google With Handle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...They've taken on Yahoo, Microsoft, and now eBay ... is there anything they can't do?...
Breakdown Dead Ahead In Transports?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Has the upside in the Dow Jones Transportation Average all but run its course?...
About That Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Ever throw a "call the bottom" party and EVERYBODY came?...
Channel Testing
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As gold reenters a trend channel from which it recently emerged, gold stocks slip closer to support at the lower boundary of their trend channel....
The Yahoo Gap
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...This is not a pipe ... and Yahoo is not Google....
King Copper
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The mother of all 2B bottoms set the stage for copper's incredible cyclical bull market....
Waves Working Lower
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...An updated wave count takes a look at the S&P 500 since the August top....
The QQQQ's 50% Solution
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Too clever by half? The NASDAQ 100 tracking stock finds support halfway between where the rally began in the spring and where it ended in the autumn....
Is Crude Oil Ready To Run?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With crude oil futures correcting toward the lower end of their multimonth trend channel, oil stocks continue to warn of weakness....
Deeper Into October
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...MACD histogram troughs in the first half of October suggest that the market's move downward is not yet over....
A Big Bad Banking Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A head & shoulders top appears to be a bearish work in progress over the Banking Index....
Retracing Yen
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Using Fibonacci to gauge pullbacks in the USD/JPY....
Divergences 1, Candlesticks 0
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A negative stochastic divergence compels the emini S&P 500 lower in spite of signs of buying strength....
About That Gas
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A bearish engulfing candlestick and a negative stochastic divergence suggested lower. But natural gas bulls would have none of it....
Bears Engulfing Cocoa
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Bearish engulfing candlesticks and volume contractions marked tops in cocoa rallies this year....
Eyeballing The September Lows
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Having bounced away from the August lows, the Dow Jones averages find themselves falling back toward the lows of September....
Time Out For Gold
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Correction or reversal, December gold takes a break from its recent run higher....
Another Rate Rally
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Seen through the lens of two screens, the 10-year Treasury note looks as if it's headed lower--with a corresponding rally in yields....
Websites For Traders: Trade2Win.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 23:10 (72-74): Websites For Traders: Trade2Win.com by David Penn TRADE2WIN.COM In Jack Schwager's interview with Linda Bradford Raschke in The New Market Wizards, Market Wizard Raschke says this in response to a question about the difficulty of adjusting to the "isolation of trading from home": For the first four years, being off the floor was great--no distractions, no outside opinions. Last year, however, the isolation started to really bother me. I got lonely. I tried talking to other traders on the phone during the day, but I found that it was distracting and lowe...
Working Money: Yearning For Euros by David Penn
Magnets And Market Direction
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A conversation and market update with Jordan Kimmel of Magnet Investing....
Falling Pharmaceuticals
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Looking for a bear market? Try the companies stocking your medicine cabinet....
November Divergences
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Do the looming negative divergences in semiconductor stocks make for a buying opportunity?...
Broads, Wedges, And Waves
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Here's a look at the autumn correction and a wave count for the November new high....
A 2B Top In The Industrials?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...You can't catch a reversal much faster than you can by correctly anticipating a bull trap....
Smoke Rising?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Has the rotation arrived for smokestack stocks?...
$HUI's Golden Channel
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A month testing the upper boundary of its trend channel is followed by a month testing the lower boundary....
The NASDAQ's Pre-September 11th Mindset
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The "chopped liver" bull market from the late 2002 lows reaches a major milepost in late 2005....
About That Breakdown: Transports, Take Two
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Entry discipline avoided the nonbreakdown and provided an opportunity to join the ride higher....
About That Breakdown, Dow Transports Division
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The transports signaled the possibility of a breakdown in late October, but a retreat from shooting star candlesticks turned into a reversal to the upside....
Bollinger Bands Grow Tighter
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Contracting Bollinger Bands on a weekly chart of the 10-year note yield suggest the potential for greater volatility in the near term....
Dancin' With Mr. D(ollar)
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Support at the 50-week EMA and successive closes above the 10-week EMA point to higher prices in the greenback....
The Euro's September Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Negative divergences in the stochastic and MACDH anticipated an end to the EUR/USD's summer rally....
Buying The Dips
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The oldest trick in the trend trading book provides entries in Apple....
2B Daily And Weekly
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A 2B test of bottom in the daily chart is confirmed by a 2B test of bottom in the weekly chart....
Intermarket Review by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 23:11 (84-85): Intermarket Review by David Penn This month's reviews are for: Internet Holdrs Trust (HHH), GSTI Software Index ($GSO), Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index ($SOX), and the Telecommunications Holders Trust (TTH)....
Websites For Traders: SiliconInvestor.com by David Penn
Paul Cunningham Of Merit Advisors
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Like a little "junk in the trunk"? More speculators are looking to high-yield bonds — and high-yield bond market timers — for trend trading opportunities....
The Role Of Gold
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...What are gold and gold shares telling traders and investors about the current environment?...
Triangles In Channels
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A new trend channel and a symmetrical triangle suggest opportunity in pharmaceutical stocks....
Rallies On Weak Volume
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The higher the May rally climbed, the lower the volume got....
Dow To The Moon!
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Higher lows in May suggest that both the Dow industrials and Dow transports are in gear to move higher as the summer season begins....
The Haul Ahead For HHH
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Has the May rally gone too far, too fast? Not as far as the Internet sector is concerned....
Up Popped Corn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A negative stochastic divergence and a TRIX buy signal show the way higher in July corn....
Rallies And Fibonacci Retracements
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Smashing past the 50% retracement level, the Standard & Poor's 500 races toward a test of year-to-date highs....
Flagging Into Support
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A bullish flag that ends where moving average support begins can be a prelude to profits....
The OEX's 1-2-3 Trend Reversal
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Do trendlines work? When markets are accommodating, trendlines--and their breaks--are as easy as 1-2-3....
QQQQ Channel Pairs
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Another example of channel pairs characterizes an intraday ascent in the QQQQ....
Will Divergences Doom The Rally?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Running stochastic divergences in the hourly chart of the Standard & Poor's 500 suggest that the vertical rally that began in late April might be running out of steam....
Bottoms And Discretionary Diamonds
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A diamond pattern developed in the consumer discretionary sector and a reversal emerged....
Channeling The Dollar
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A pair of trend channels guides the greenback higher....
Hammers On High Volume
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Recently, I suggested higher prices for semiconductor stocks in the near term. By hammering in a bottom on high volume, KLAC is one stock among many that delivered....
Copper's Diamond Down
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A diamond top appears to have finally put a stop to the mesmerizing bull market in copper....
Test And Retreat For Retail HOLDRS
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Shares of the retail stock HOLDRS broke down in April and retested a support-turned-resistance level early in May....
Gold's Bad Break
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...News that the greenback surged to new highs against the euro was not good news for gold bulls....
Projectile Bottoming
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Elliott wave projections came within 0.50 of noting the bottom in the March-April declines....
Broken Triangles, Broken Trendlines
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Ascending triangles with downside breaks! Long-term resistance becomes intraday support! Dogs and cats living together!...
Pork Bellies: From Poke To Broke
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The post-negative divergence decline was severe. And resistance at the 10-day EMA suggests more downside is possible....
10-Year Treasury Notes Work Toward A Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Positive divergences suggest that the downside in 10-year yields may be increasingly limited....
Feels Like A Fourth
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The tilt-a-whirl action in the S&P 500 over the second half of April is reminiscent of a fourth-wave type of complex correction. ......
Strength In Semiconductors?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A 2B test of bottom and a positive stochastic divergence suggest near-term upside in the $SOX....
Working Money: The Dow's Dogs, Undaunted by David Penn
Websites For Traders: fmcenter.org by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 23:5 (13-15): Websites For Traders: fmcenter.org by David Penn FMCENTER.ORG For some, the Federal Reserve Board, its operations, and intentions are shrouded in mystery, if not paranoia and conspiracy theory. One regular advertisement on Internet and AM radio teases listeners darkly with the invitation to purchase a book that promises to: ?"[E]xpose the almost inconceivable stories of deceit, conspiracy, and media cover up involving the creation of the Federal Reserve System, an entity that emerges as a secret government more powerful than the duly constituted governme...
Stop Out
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...What to do when you absolutely, positively have to get out of a trade....
John McClure Of EquiTrend
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Market timing helps keep traders swimming with the current, not against it. What is your market timing strategy doing for you?...
Confirmation Analysis
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...If strength in the Dow transports led the 2002-05 cyclical bull market higher, then will weakness in the transports help anticipate the resumption of the secular bear market that began in 2000?...
Crosscurrents In The S&P 500
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Is it "down for the upstroke" time for the S&P 500?...
Can The Utilities Hold Up?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As a head and shoulders top threatens the utilities HOLDRS, are utilities stocks experiencing a Hound of the Baskervilles moment?...
Will A Head And Shoulders Top Stop The Bean Meal Bull?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Two-thirds of the way through a reversal pattern, May meal develops a running negative stochastic divergence....
Crude's High Altitude 2B Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Are we closer to a top in crude oil than we think?...
The 10-Year Note's Temporary Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The rally in the 10-year Treasury note yield nears its second month amid growing negative stochastic divergences....
The S&P 500's Intraday Diamond
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Bulls jump up to get beat down as an early breakout to the upside leads to a late afternoon market meltdown....
Sirius Satellite: Map Of A Mania?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Breaking down below a trendline that extends back to August 2004, Sirius Satellite suggests that this "once upon a time" highflier may have further to fall....
The S&P 500's 90-Minute Head And Shoulders Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As the S&P 500 breaks down in mid-March, a growing positive stochastic divergence in the 90-minute chart suggests a bounce may come sooner than later....
The S&P's Weekly 2B
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Relatively unconvinced by the 2B top displayed on the daily S&P 500 chart? Try a weekly chart on for size....
The Dollar's March Divergence
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Does a strong move off the lows in early March provide greenback bulls with the break they've been waiting for?...
The S&P 500's Spring Channel Surfing
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The failure to hold above the upper boundary of the old trend channel suggests a new channel--and a test of a new lower boundary....
The Nasdaq's 50% Solution
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...While the Dow and S&P 500 soar toward new highs, the Nasdaq continues to lag behind....
Fractals And Fifth Waves
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With the new year-to-date high in the S&P 500, it appears all the more likely that a five-wave pattern is driving the market higher....
International Paper's Positive Pattern
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...When a stochastic divergence precedes a nondirectional chart pattern, that pattern is not likely to remain nondirectional for long....
Charting QQQQ Options
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Can an option chart help traders get a jump on a move in the underlying stock?...
Is Lucent Looking Up?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Does a positive stochastic divergence suggest brighter times ahead for the beaten and battered shares of Lucent?...
About Those Bonds
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Positive stochastic divergences on monthly and daily charts suggest the potential for more upside in the 10-year Treasury note....
Intermarket Review by David Penn
Websites For Traders: The KirkReport.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 23:3 (72, 93): Websites For Traders: The KirkReport.com by David Penn THEKIRKREPORT.COM I have no idea who in the world Charles E. Kirk is. But after only a few months of peeking in on his website/blog, TheKirkReport.com, I'm sold. I don't know if there is a more worthwhile location on the Internet to go for reasoned, agenda-free thought and commentary on the stock market. That Kirk's website is updated regularly, is chock-full of interesting hyperlinks to other resources on the web, and has the sort of casual chatting-over-lunch-the-other day tone that helps make the...
Working Money: Confirming Divergences by David Penn
Bond. Long Bond.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Is it "rational exuberance" that's driving long-term interest rates lower? Or something more ominous?...
Weakness In Strength
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...In times of peace, prepare for war....
Intraday Diamonds And Divergences
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Indicators and chart patterns help traders anticipate market moves....
Cisco Slips, Slides To Support
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...If your playbook reads "buy tech," does that make CSCO a go-to stock?...
Copper Diamonds And Divergences
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A diamond top sent copper futures down in May. But the subsequent bounce had to be seen to be believed....
Cocoa Pop ... And Drop
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A short-term negative divergence suggests one more trip down before September cocoa's bottoming process can be called complete....
September Crude's Bearish Divergence
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As oil stocks bound to new highs, crude oil futures show signs of weariness....
Big Trouble In Little Histograms
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Are moving average convergence/divergence histograms in the major averages warning that the rally is ready to roll over?...
Nonconfirmation Comes To The Averages
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Dow theory nonevent or not, the lack of confirmation between the transports and industrials in June provides the bears with hopes of a summer reversal....
Along Came Silver
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A new exchange-traded fund will let retail stock traders make bets on the price of silver....
Negative Divergences Enjoin The Gold Rally
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...While more upside is still likely, the easy money might already have been made in gold stocks....
The Return Of The Count Right Now
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With a close above the 1215 level, the S&P 500 closes in on a 100% retracement of the spring declines....
September Coffee's Symmetrical Triangle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...When a breakdown from a bear flag failed to reach its objective, prices bounced their way into a triangular consolidation....
Sears Settles Down
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Shares of Sears Holdings slip from a hot trend channel to a cooler one ... and now look to slip free from that one as well....
A Top In Telecom?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As the telecom index surges into a secondary trend channel, negative stochastic divergences emerge....
Waiting For Volume
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The rally in shares of Forest Labs has everything a bull might want ... except for more bulls....
Amgen's 2B Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Is it the beginning of the end for the biotech rally revolution?...
Back To Basics?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As tech gets toppy, will the rotation turn toward basic materials stocks for the upside?...
Diamonds Up
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A diamond continuation pattern leads the way higher in this medical equipment provider....
The Euro Channel
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Breaking beneath the support of two trend channels, the euro enters a dangerous stage in its descent....
Hammering Out A Bear Market Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...What a shooting star took away from the 10-year Treasury note yield, a hammer threatens to bring back....
Sweet Divergences
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A positive stochastic divergence sends sugar futures higher....
Channel Tops And Divergences
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Those ominous divergences in the S&P 500's hourly chart are beginning to show up on the daily....
Goldman Sachs: From 2B Top To Stochastic Bounce
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ..."Best in breed" broker or "penultimate hedge fund"?...
Working Money: Charting Options by David Penn
Websites For Traders: TheLongWaveAnalyst.ca by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 23:6 (58-59): Websites For Traders: TheLongWaveAnalyst.ca by David Penn THELONGWAVEANALYST.CA Writing in his best-selling book, Conquer The Crash, Elliott wave theoretician Robert Prechter said this about analyst Ian Gordon: I am convinced that the explanation for such opinions is that these analysts feel optimistic and have to rationalize why. I am aware of only two other writers who see the [Kondratieff] cycle performing in its typical way and with its normal timing. Ian Gordon, who in 1998 began publishing The Long Wave Analyst, is an astute historian and student ...
Jordan Kimmel Of Magnet Investing
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Who put the technicals in my fundamental analysis? Who put the fundamentals in my technical analysis? Kimmel's Magnet Investing is another path to the perfect blend....
Crude Comes In
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Running negative stochastic divergences all but assure lower crude oil prices in the immediate-term....
An Elliott Wave Count In Housing
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Those looking for an end to the boom in housing can begin by plotting the upside of housing stocks....
Huey Needs A New High
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The index of unhedged gold stocks, $HUI, looks vulnerable to a 1-2-3 trend reversal in the daily charts....
Bye-Bye Beans?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Deep MACDH histogram troughs suggest that the soybean correction has more room to run....
A Head And Shoulders Top In IGT
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A reversal pattern develops after two months of gains in the gaming stock....
Nasdaq's Diamond Breakout
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A consolidation early in June sets the stage for a Nasdaq rally in July....
The Smaller They Come?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Do negative divergences anticipate a reversal in the Russell 2000?...
Abbott Labs Awesome 2B Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The war between pharma and biotech looks to claim another victim....
Intraday Dueling Triangles
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The five-minute chart reveals how a pair of triangles, the first ascending and the second descending, anticipated a day's worth of market movement....
Summertime ... And The Cotton Is Slipping ...
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Do oversold readings in October cotton make the case for value--or merely further declines?...
The Rate Rally Cometh
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Remember those lazy, hazy, crazy days of falling long-term interest rates?...
Intimate Confirmations
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Same-day confirmations in the Dow industrials and transports mean markets that are headed higher....
The Count Comes Back
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The first rule of wave counting: when wrong, go long(er)....
Elliott Wave Corrections
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Once again, Elliott wave projections prove helpful in anticipating market moves....
Up Or Over For Retail Stocks?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Retail stocks are poised to move vertically in the near-term ... that, or smash into support like a bug against a windshield....
The New Gold Bull Market?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Are gold bugs mis-reading EWT in order to arrive at a bullish outlook for gold?...
The Dollar's Ascending Triangle Breakout
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...In the words of Jesse Livermore: "Never too low to sell, never too high to buy."...
Websites For Traders: SeekingAlpha.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 23:7 (36): Websites For Traders: SeekingAlpha.com by David Penn SEEKINGALPHA.COM One reason you don't tend to read too many restaurant reviews written while the reviewer is still sampling the cuisine is obvious: How can the reviewer provide a complete evaluation of the meal if he or she hasn't eaten the whole thing--appetizer to dessert? Something similar strikes me as I set out to introduce a fascinating new website called Seeking Alpha--or, more accurately, seekingalpha.com. While I haven't even come close to perusing all that this website has to offer in the way of n...
Charting Options
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...We're not talking bars versus candlesticks. We're talking about putting the price action of puts and calls themselves on the map....
The Dow's Dogs, Undaunted
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A bearish sawtooth pattern in stocks in 2004 couldn't hold back the littlest underdogs of the Dow 30....
Elliott Wave 2005
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The waves get larger, but the shape stays the same....
The Swing Thing
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Swing rule targets in the hourly Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq anticipate a showdown with trend channel support....
The Symmetrical Triangle And The Regional Banks
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A symmetrical triangle develops during the course of the downtrend in RKH. Is an upside breakout any more or less likely than a downside breakdown?...
Does The Divergence Signal Dollar Weakness?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A negative stochastic divergence during the greenback's January advance suggests a pullback in the dollar's month-long rally....
Testing The Breakout
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...For all the concern over the January 2005 correction, the market is still just testing its November 2004 breakout....
Intel Ugliness
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A descending triangle at the top of Intel's late 2004 rally suggests a sharp reversal....
The Rap On REITs
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...In a bull market since May 2004, REITs have been the real rally kings. So what can traders make of recent weakness in the group?...
The Euro's Post-Breakdown Positive Divergence
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...How soon after a breakdown is it time to think about buying?...
A Rally In The Russell?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The little guys of the stock market show their muscle with a positive divergence and bullish follow-through in mid-January....
Anadarko Antes Up A Positive Divergence
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Currently overbought, how much more upside can Anadarko Petroleum eke out?...
Networkers Knocked Out
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A negative divergence, a hanging man, and a trend channel breakdown conspire to send the AMEX Networking Index down to two-month lows....
Shine On Silver Diamond?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A diamond pattern forming in the wake of silver's sharp December correction threatens to send prices even lower....
A Cup With Handle In Hogs
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Are hogs headed higher? This cup with handle patterns seems to suggest so....
A Tale Of Two Channels
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...What's this? "2004 rally dead in the water"?! Somebody forgot to tell the trend channels....
Bad News Bonds?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Gold slipping, the dollar bouncing ... what do YOU think bonds are likely to do next?...
An Intraday 2B Test
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...More than just a tool for top- and bottom-picking trends, the 2B test is one way for aggressive traders to trade sloppy, sideways markets....
Sterling's Symmetrical Triangle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The British pound joins the euro's excursion into the world of symmetrical triangles--with interesting results....
Divergences And The Housing Index
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The first negative divergence led to sideways trading in the housing index. The second? So far, a sharp reversal....
Newmont's Head And Shoulders Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Does weakness in the stocks anticipate weakness in the metal?...
The Euro's December Symmetrical Triangle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Trading setups and patterns can work together to spot and manage winning trades....
Working Money: Dr. Reversal And Mr. Support by David Penn
Charting The Market: Triangles by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 23:1 (124-125): Charting The Market: Triangles by David Penn TRIANGLES Writing about triangles as significant patterns in technical analysis, trader, author, and educator John Murphy observes that: ""? The triangle is usually a continuation pattern. Its formation signals that a trend has gotten ahead of itself and needs to consolidate for a while. Once that consolidation has been completed, the prior trend usually resumes in the same direction. In an uptrend, therefore, a triangle is usually a bullish pattern. In a downtrend, a triangle is usually bearish."" There i...
Websites For Traders: PowerSwings.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 23:1 (122-123): Websites For Traders: PowerSwings.com by David Penn POWERSWINGS.COM Will a massive post-election bull market in stocks do for financial weblogs what the US Presidential election season did for political blogs? I have no idea whether the consensus view of ever-higher stock prices is any more correct than the consensus contrarian view of a gut-wrenching market collapse, but as long as the markets remain a place of fascination, opportunity, and controversy, there will always be those looking for insights and, fortunately, those talented and articulate eno...
More Elliott Wave Work
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Here's an update and extension on the wave count discussed in "Elliott Wave 2005."...
Confirmation Comeback?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Are the transports on the verge of actually making a bearish confirmation?...
From Zigzag To Triangle?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Using Elliott wave theory to game the correction of January/February 2005....
Time To Short Apple?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Once again, the bears circle Campground Apple hoping for easier pickings this time around....
Are The Semiconductors Slip Sliding Away?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A negative divergence at the top of the January-February rally in the $SOX and SMH threaten further gains for this group....
Will A 1-2-3 Trend Reversal Mark The Top?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...How do I top thee, market? Let me count the ways....
Bulls Jump Up To Get Beat Down
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Muddled positive divergences in many averages launched rallies in late January. Will clear-cut negative divergences mark the end of those rallies?...
The Nasdaq's No Contest
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...While other averages raced toward new yearly highs, the Nasdaq continues to lag. Is that an intimation of a reversal?...
April (Fool's) Gold
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Measuring the progress of the yellow metal's first-quarter bounce....
Down Goes The Dollar?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A breakout from an ascending triangle in January retreats before reaching its price target....
About Those Banks ...
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A symmetrical triangle in the regional bank HOLDRS breaks out to the upside as the weight of the market tries to drag the banks back down....
Have The Internets Hit Bottom?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Strength in mid-February could anticipate a positive stochastic divergence....
Shipper Slips From Head And Shoulders Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Many stocks in this group bottomed in December 2004 and spent January 2005 in rally mode. In this stock, a failed topping pattern helped anticipate the advance....
Declining Volume + Rally = Reversal?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The bounce at the end of January in the QQQQ had everything a bull would want--except for strong volume trends....
Bye-Bye, Bounce?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A running stochastic divergence in the hourly S&P 500 suggests that the end of January bounce may be nearer than farther....
Consolidations In Trends
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Q. Why did the consolidation cross the uptrend?...
TIN Tumbles
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Almost alone among housing stocks, Temple Inland suffers its negative divergence....
Charting The Market by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 23:2 (88-89, 107): Charting The Market by David Penn WHEN SELLERS SELL OUT Writing about "The Selling Climax" in Technical Analysis Of Stock Trends, authors Robert Edwards and John Magee observe that: Most true Selling Climaxes, if not all, have been produced by distress selling ? They have come at the end of rapid and comprehensive declines which exhausted the margin reserves of many speculators and necessitated the dumping of their shares at whatever the market would bring. This process is progressive -- feeding upon itself, so to speak -- with each wave of forced sa...
Working Money: Crosses, Candlesticks, And Q-Stick by David Penn
Websites For Traders: TraderMentors.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 23:2 (103): Websites For Traders: TraderMentors.com by David Penn TRADERMENTORS.COM When Marty Schwartz decided he wanted to move from being a trader who was "always going tapioca" to someone who traded for a living, he and his wife wrote out a list of things he needed to do in order to make that dream happen. One item was to develop a sound methodology. Another item was to come up with an appropriately sized "nut" of $100,000 (in the early 1980s, no less). Second on the list was to buy a seat on an exchange. The third item on the list? GET A MENTOR I've riffed on t...
"V" Is For Volume
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...We had a conversation with Vlad Korzinin, CEO of Highland Investments, MarketVolume.com, and the mind behind modulated volume....
Stage Analysis With Trend Channels
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Price channels show when the S&P 500 went into acceleration mode in November 2005....
Googleplexed?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As negative divergences mount, one of Google's biggest fans steps closer to the exit....
Divergences Drive Motorola Down
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Motorola's contributions to the gadget-led tech rally have been signature. And so has the negative divergence in November, which led to lower prices in December....
Vexing $VIX Breakdown
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Another new low in the CBOE Volatility Index suggests the market is in the mood for a move higher....
Get Support Or Die Tryin'
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After retracing 50% of its advance from the September lows, the US Dollar index futures are begging for a bounce....
Transports Climb Toward Breakout Mountain
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Dow transports fashioned a bull flag of their own over the November-December period and look to head higher....
Coeur d'Alene's 2B Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With the yellow metal flirting with levels not seen since 1987, the gold stocks remain chaste....
The NYSE Composite's Make Or Break Channel
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Sticking to a single trend channel since rising from the October lows, the stocks of the NYSE ride support higher and higher....
Meet Google's Histogram
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Although not confirmed by the stochastic, the MACD histogram's negative divergence still suggests softer prices in the near term for Google....
Retail Stocks And Black Friday
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Retailers thrilled to Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving and the official kickoff of the winter holiday shopping season....
S&P 500's Channel Support And Resistance
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A break below the lower boundary of a trend channel finds the S&P 500 running up against resistance that was once support....
Oil And Gas Bound Higher
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Positive divergences in both the MACD histogram and the stochastic suggest that lower energy prices are still at least a rally away....
The Other Way Of Stopping (A Decline)
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Bears were livid as a piercing pattern put an end to a three-day decline in Yahoo....
Divergence To Divergence
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The divergence that giveth in October looketh to taketh away in December....
Websites For Traders: TradingMarkets.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 23:12 (75-77): Websites For Traders: TradingMarkets.com by David Penn TRADINGMARKETS.COM Very early in his book How Markets Really Work, author, trader, and TradingMarkets.com founder Larry Connors pays tribute to the writing of Michael Lewis. Lewis, author of ""Liar's Poker"" and ""Moneyball,"" is famous for having shown how the insiders of the investment banking world of Wall Street plied their trade in the booming 1980s, and how a crafty baseball owner reinvented the way talent was evaluated in Major League Baseball in the late 1990s. What ties the worlds of ""Lia...
Charting The Market by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 23:12 (70-71): Charting The Market by David Penn CHANNELLING If one trendline is good, are two trendlines better? That's one way of summing up the attraction many people have with channeling and trend channels. A technician could even see trend channels as the difference between those who prefer to draw their uptrend lines from the lowest low to the highest low and those who prefer their uptrend lines to ride on top, projecting forward from the lowest high. Writing about trend channels, their relationship to trendlines, and how these channels can be profitably traded...
Trading With Trendlines
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Confused about market direction? Try a trendline to help you see things as they really are....
Yearning For Euros
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Tracking sentiment and technicals in Europe's common currency....
The Bid In The Bubble
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Housing bubble or no, an oversold market with plenty of short interest is one that is likely to bounce....
Cree's Double Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...An Adam & Adam double top over the summer leads to declines near season's end....
Crude's Cracked Wall Of Worry
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Does the Katrina spike spell the end of crude's crazy rally?...
Gilead's Head & Shoulders Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As signs of weakness emerge in biotechnology indexes, bearish reversal patterns appear in a number of biotech stocks....
Gaming Retracements
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Tracking an intraday retracement with divergences and Fibonacci ratios....
Power Outage?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...George Soros' fund is dumping energy stocks. Should you?...
Google's Head And Shoulders Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Will the world's greatest search engine become the speculator's greatest short?...
The First Five Down?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Could the first five waves of the next bear market have already begun?...
Bears Engulfing Gas
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Japanese candlestick patterns and classic indicators can combine for potent results....
Cocoa Comes Crashing Down
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...No signal? Try switching time frames. Trading opportunities may be larger than they appear....
Arsenic And Old Trend Channels
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Like the S&P 500, the September greenback has found new support at old resistance....
The S&P 500's Kick Save At Support
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Dipping lower in response to a negative stochastic divergence, the S&P 500 finds support at old highs and old trend channels....
A King-Sized Wave Count For Crude
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Has crude oil entered a pain-free zone for black gold bulls?...
Utilities Power Down
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Rising long-term interest rates add to the pressure on utilities stocks....
Golden Nonconfirmations
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...When gold stocks fail to confirm a new high in gold futures, contrarians and gold bugs alike should take notice....
Diamond, Sawtooth, And Rally
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...About the curiously bullish year-long commodity odyssey....
A(nother) Diamond In The Yen
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Can speculators anticipate the direction of a likely break from this diamond consolidation pattern?...
Double Bottom On UPS
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...What has "Brown" done for you lately? How about a double bottom with a pair of positive stochastic divergences?...
Dow Theory Dreams
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Longing for bullish signs in the Dow industrials and transports? Look no further than the March 2005 highs....
Bullish Divergences Lead Cattle Higher
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Month-on-month positive stochastic divergences anticipate a reversal in cattle futures....
The QQQQ's Descending Triangle Breakout
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Horizontal support + downwardly sloping resistance trendline = descending triangle. But that's the easy part....
Intermarket Review by David Penn
Websites For Traders: www.TimerTrac.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 23:8 (63-64): Websites For Traders: www.TimerTrac.com by David Penn WWW.TIMERTRAC.COM Investment newsletter writers have Mark Hulbert and his digest; the followers of market folklore, arcana, and shibboleths have Yale Hirsch and his almanac, and now, the world of market timers has TimerTrac.com. What is Timer Trac? Quite simply, Timer Trac provides an amazing cross-section of data on some of the country's most savvy and often under-the-radar market timers, traders, and money managers whose job it is to be in the market when it's moving up and out of the market--or sho...
Charting The Market: Piercing Patterns by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 23:8 (62, 83): Charting The Market: Piercing Patterns by David Penn Writing about dual candle lines in his book ""Beyond Candlesticks,"" Steve Nison recalls a particularly vivid (and metaphoric) description of a "piercing pattern" in Japanese candlestick analysis: ""? [T]he last of the bulls that were backed into a corner and came out fighting in a heroic fight. Kamikaze fights are always frightening, so the bears seeing this take to the sidelines for the moment. In this quiet period, the bulls may get reinforcements, or after all the selling that has occurred, the su...
Working Money: Confirmation Comeback? by David Penn
Serge Dacic Of Timing Cube
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Three to five trades a year? Portfolio-pleasing returns? More and more traders and investors are counting on the Cube....
The Count Right Now, Redux
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Truncated fifth or extended fifth? What can we make of the March highs?...
A Head & Shoulders Top In Housing Stocks
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The homebuilding boom bumps up against a classic reversal pattern....
Intraday DLB Breakouts
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...An excellent example of the "Don't Look Back" breakout develops in a five-minute chart of the emini S&P....
Bouncing Banks
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Bulls longing for a bottom in the markets get optimistic signs from banks responding to positive divergences....
July Cotton's Ascending Triangle Breakout
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A failed 2B top reversal leads to an ascending triangle breakout....
Crude Oil's Hourly Head And Shoulders Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A look at crude oil through the lens of the 60-minute chart suggests a possible reversal in crude oil's bull run....
The Joys Of Juice
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Wanna know where the bulls have been running recently? Try the orange groves....
Beat The House!
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Is this just the universal cry of gamblers, or what the bear market is doing to casino and gaming stocks?...
Will Commodities Get A Bid?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A pair of positive stochastic divergences suggests, at minimum, a bounce for commodities--broadly speaking....
The 10-Year Treasury Note's Head And Shoulders Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A temporary respite in long rates flows from a head and shoulders top....
An Intraday Emini 2B Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A classic reversal pattern anticipates weakness and a test of the lows....
Dow Theory To The Downside
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Simultaneous closes below the January lows in the Dow industrials and transports is an unequivocally bearish development....
Get Fitch
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Following the sensationalist success of "When Animals Attack," how long will it be before we are entertained by CNBC's new series, "When CFOs Resign"?...
The Diamond's Diamond
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The wide-range bar on April 1 was the first tipoff that this pattern might develop. But are there any clues about the direction any break from this diamond will travel?...
Coffee's Bear Flag
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Negative stochastic divergences and a bearish flag hint at lower prices for coffee in the near term....
July Cocoa's Island Gap: Prelude To A Break
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A deep moving average convergence/divergence histogram trough suggests lower prices ahead for July cocoa....
A Golden Bounce
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Will a diamond pattern in June gold anticipate a reversal of fortune for partisans of the yellow metal?...
Pigs In A Poke
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A month-long negative stochastic divergence in May bellies suggests an April correction....
Telecom's Time To Shine?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A piercing pattern, a positive stochastic divergence ... could the much-loathed telecommunications stocks be among the first to move higher in April?...
The S&P 500's 30-Minute Head And Shoulders Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Did somebody say "bottom"?! The head and shoulders formation in the 30-minute S&P 500 might be the bulls' best bet on an end to the March declines....
Diamonds And Divergences
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Once again, stochastic divergences help anticipate the direction of a chart pattern breakout....
Crude's 2B Top Comes To The Dailies
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The bearish reversal pattern that appeared on crude oil's weekly chart is now making an appearance on the daily chart....
Another Low, Another Punk Divergence
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The January lows held as the markets fell on April 1. But who were the markets making a fool of?...
Cotton Comes Down
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A 2B top anticipates a reversal in cotton futures....
Working Money: Elliott Wave 2005 by David Penn
Product Review: TradeAccountant by David Penn
Product Review: Market System Analyzer by David Penn
Product Review: Track 'n Trade Pro 4.0 by David Penn
Product Review: ChartFilter by David Penn
Product Review: OptionVue 5 by David Penn
Product Review: RealTick 8.0 by David Penn
Product Review: eASCTrend 6.0 EODS by David Penn
Product Review: TradeBolt by David Penn
Product Review: Dynamic Trend Profile 2.0 by David Penn
Product Review: tymoraPro by David Penn
Product Review: eASCTrend 6.0 AOE by David Penn
Product Review: IQ Charts by David Penn
Gold's Last Gasp? Part II
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...More odds on a breakdown in gold....
Gold's Last Gasp? Part I
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Could a massive, multiyear correction be just around the corner in gold?...
The Dow Days Of Summer
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Back together again, the Dow industrials and Dow transports take out their July 2004 lows on the same day. But if that's so bearish, then what's up with the bounce?...
Big MO's Double Bottom: 2B Or Not 2B?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Declines in September test lows were established in May. Will a lack of downside followthrough spell a reversal and double bottom for shares of Altria Group?...
Down Goes Disney!
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Big volume on a 2.5% down day does not bode well for the guardians of the Magic Kingdom....
Defying The Divergences
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Everybody hates drug stocks. But for weeks, the pharmaceutical HOLDRS resisted succumbing to repeated negative stochastic divergences. At least, until now....
Orange Juice's Triangle Triumph
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A few thoughts on the perfection of imperfect chart patterns as orange juice futures rally to new highs....
Back To The August Lows?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Failing new year-to-date highs in the Industrials, the next Dow theory event could well be a test of the August lows....
The Return Of How The Dollar Gets Its Groove Back
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Will a positive stochastic divergence in September result in a rally in U.S. dollar futures?...
Is Intel Setting Up For Another Leg Down?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Follow-through to the downside in this leading semiconductor stock could mean an especially bearish October for Intel....
Is Cocoa Ripe For Collapse?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A summer rally breaks up the monotony of an 18-month bear market. But are further declines ahead?...
So Long, Silver
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A breakdown from a rising wedge may be the second of many more declines ahead for gold's shiny little sister....
Squeezing The Juice
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A month ago, I announced "Run OJ! Run!" in reference to the early stages of a rally in long-beleaguered orange juice futures. And run they did....
A Taste For Twos
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A second wave rally began in mid-August. How far are we from the end of that move and the beginning of a third?...
Websites For Traders: WallStreetCity.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...V. 22:9 (84): Websites For Traders: WallStreetCity.com by David Penn WALLSTREETCITY.COM One of the blessings of being a market technician is listening to fundamental analysts fire off explanations for events that technicians had anticipated for days. Sure, it's an extra kicker when the fundamentalist finds him- or herself suddenly reversing a position that was fiercely argued only a few weeks before. But how many times has a technician been watching a financial news program or reading a mainstream financial periodical and said to himself -- in the midst of a blizzard of pundit rationalization...
The Crude Mini Cometh by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...V. 22:9 (78-82): The Crude Mini Cometh by David Penn Minis? Energies? For the little guy, trading energy futures just got easier. What were you doing in the autumn of 1990? Well, if you were a futures trader, and it was sometime in late August or early September, then you were probably on the long side of crude oil, a ride that ended up taking fortunate traders to a high of more than $40 a barrel by October. Missed that one, did you? Well, how about the move down in 1993? Or even better, the collapse in 1998, when crude oil got dangerously near $10 a barrel? I bet the shorts made a killing ...
Intermarket Review by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...V. 22:9 (122, 110): Intermarket Review by David Penn The Intermarket Review looks at the China Fund (CHN), Thai Fund (TTF), India Fund (IFN), and Malaysia Fund (MF). The China Fund (CHN) is a closed-end fund under the advisement of Asia Direct Capital Management. Traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the fund is geared toward providing investors with exposure to equities of companies based in or out of China. Founded in July 1992, the fund as of this writing had total net assets in excess of $271.30 million. Holdings in the China Fund include companies such as Chaoda Modern Agriculture (ind...
Working Money: Copper: Recessions, Cycles, And Spin by David Penn
Elliott Waves And The S&P 100
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Once again, it pays to err on the side of excess when counting the waves....
Dr. Reversal And Mr. Support
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...What do you do when a riot of technical indicators and setups suggests that a market has run out of upside in the near term?...
Election 2004: A Tale Of Two Tops
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The nine-month trading range of 2004 resembles a similarly extended trading range from 2000....
Drug Divergence Programs
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stochastic divergences in the pharmaceutical HOLDRS suggest opportunities in the beaten-down drug sector....
Triangle Trouble For December Hogs?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A narrowing price range after a brief autumn correction locates lean hog futures at the crossroads....
Cotton Keeps Crashing Down
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Deep MACDH troughs and resistance at major long-term moving averages suggest that the correction in cotton futures is not yet done....
Silver: Up For The Downstroke?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With a completed breakdown from a rising wedge, silver has moved to multimonth highs. Does that make it time to turn bullish?...
The Dollar's Triangle Breakdown
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...If you found yourself missing the glory days of greenback gloom and doom, then have I got a symmetrical triangle for YOU!...
Dow Theory And The September Highs
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Another nonconfirmation to the upside keeps the question marks in place....
From Flat To Zigzag
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...How the rule of alternation warned bears of a sharp reversal near the end of September....
Websites For Traders: Prophet Patterns In Prophet.net by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 22:10 (89-90): Websites For Traders: Prophet Patterns In Prophet.net by David Penn There is an irony in trying to introduce Prophet Patterns, which is one of the newer modules in Prophet.net -- aka the "complete technical analysis suite in a browser" -- developed by Prophet Financial Systems. That irony lies in the fact that it is difficult to talk about one component of this "suite" -- such as Prophet Patterns -- without talking about its relationship to other components in the suite. That's not to say that these components are dependent upon one another. While each comp...
Working Money: Topping And The Energy Complex by David Penn
Intermarket Review by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 22:10 (72-73): Intermarket Review by David Penn HOLDRS, or Holding Company Depositary Receipts, are exchange-traded products created by Merrill Lynch & Co. that allow individual investors and institutions to own a basket of common stocks from companies within a specific industry or market sector. Unlike other exchange-traded products, HOLDRS investors have ownership rights to the underlying stocks in a given HOLDR should they choose to exercise them (a process called "canceling"). The component stocks of individual HOLDRS are selected based on market capitalization, li...
Charting The Market by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 22:10 (58-61): Charting The Market by David Penn Writing in Commodities Magazine back in 1980, technical analyst Donald Lambert observed that: Many commodities exhibit some type of cyclical or seasonal price pattern. But the commodity trade still faces the problem of detecting when the regular price movements begin and end because climate and other real world conditions may affect their timing. To be useful in cyclical markets, an index must examine current prices in light of past prices but must not allow data from the distant past to confuse present patterns ? ...
Dow Theory: Confirmations 2004
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Primary bulls, primary bears, and secondary reactions....
Crosses, Candlesticks, And Q-Stick
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Try this three-step methodology for locating trading opportunities....
Bunge's 10-Day Moving Average Breakout
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...From a nearly month-long consolidation, shares of agribusiness concern Bunge International are once again moving higher....
Divergences Drive OIH Up
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A running positive divergence propels oil service HOLDRS to new highs....
Banks Bounce, Then Break Down
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A positive divergence set up a bounce in October. Will a trendline break in November anticipate a breakdown?...
Telecoms Top Out?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A negative divergence develops from the November leg of SBC's autumn rally....
Stochastics Size Up Sears For Sale
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Who knew more about Sears' "hidden value," Eddie Lampert or the positive divergence in the 7,10 stochastic?...
Big MO's 2B Double Bottom Revisited
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Nearly 10 points higher from our last look at Altria Group, the stock formerly known as Philip Morris moves into a triangular consolidation and threatens to move higher....
Triangles Take The $HUI Higher
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A summer triangle consolidation provided a floor for unhedged gold company shares. Now a smaller autumn triangle sets up a test of the ceiling....
Double Divergence
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Once again, the S&P 500's rally challenges a running negative stochastic divergence....
Will Lumber Get A Lift?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A Traders.com Advantage reader points to lumber's cyclical patterns and suggests higher prices ahead....
The Cisco Kid's Gap Down Negative Divergence Special
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Is it time to empty the chamber on Cisco?...
The Dollar's Last-Ditch Divergence
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The target from the symmetrical triangle reached, dollar bears try to plow through a positive stochastic divergence....
The MACDH And Copper's Autumn Correction
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A major MACDH trough in the daily chart of December copper suggests lower prices to come. But first, a word from the countertrend bounce ......
Divergences And The Bush Bounce
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...All the post-hoc stock and election analysis you'll need is summed up in one chart and two stochastic divergences....
Trading An Intraday Triangle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...When volatility has been running high, an early morning contraction can lead to explosive results....
A Head (And Shoulders) Of Cattle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A nearly five-month topping pattern in December live cattle futures looks set to resolve itself in a breakdown....
Websites For Traders: FuturesBuzz.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 22:11 (92-93): Websites For Traders: FuturesBuzz.com by David Penn FUTURESBUZZ.COM Perhaps there will never come a day when mainstream information and news about the futures and commodities markets will rival the information and news available about the equity markets. Until then, futures and commodities traders -- current and aspiring -- will have to rely on websites like FuturesBuzz.com to keep abreast of the diverse set of information and datapoints they need to get and stay ahead of the game. FuturesBuzz.com was founded back in 2000. According to its founders, the...
Working Money: Waiting For Breakouts by David Penn
Post-Breakdown MACDH Extremes
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Here's what the MACDH can tell you about breakout direction and breakdown intensity....
The May Count
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With a minute ii wave peak in late April, look for the current decline in the S&P 500 to bottom near 1045....
Gaming The Mid-May Bounce
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The three major averages have all traced out hourly bottoming patterns in the middle of May....
The Return Of The Son Of The Bearish Confirmations
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...It's all about the March 2004 lows for the Dow Transports and Industrials....
Websites For Traders: StockConsultant.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Websites For Traders: StockConsultant.com by David Penn STOCKCONSULTANT.COM How much information do you really want to know about the stocks you are thinking about trading and investing? This was the first reaction I had when I typed Yahoo's stock symbol (YHOO) in the "enter symbol" box of StockConsultant.com. With the click of a mouse, StockConsultant.com produced a stock report for YHOO that was as comprehensive as any I've come across on the Internet. Doubt it? Consider what you get: a multichart geared toward intraday (15-minute) data, with daily last, change, open, high, low and volume...
Working Money: The Coming Confirmation? by David Penn
How The Dollar Gets Its Groove Back
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Near-term rallies in the euro and aussie may presage a rally in the US dollar....
Symmetrical Triangles And The MACDH
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Can a symmetrical triangle be directional? Other tools in the technical toolbox may be able to tell you....
The Count Right Now
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...An hourly Elliott wave count of the S&P 500 late in February suggests higher prices in March....
Counting Off The Lows
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With a minute wave "iv" low in late March, could higher prices in April be ahead?...
Notes On Gold's 3-3-5 Flat
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Higher prices sooner, lower prices later ... if the Elliott wave flat proves an accurate description of the recent moves in gold....
Stochastic Divergences, Diamonds And Elliott Waves
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Once again, a positive stochastic divergence suggests a low in the S&P 500....
Temporary Triangle Trouble In The Hourly S&P 500
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A symmetrical triangle in the hourly S&P 500 suggests higher volatility in the near-term. But is direction a complete unknown?...
The Triangle In Ten-Year Yields
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As the homebuilders' index breaks out on the upside, are yields on ten-year notes headed lower?...
Is March The Month For Higher Dow Highs?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...If both the Industrials and Transports take out their February highs, then the bull market will be confirmed once again....
Websites For Traders: MrSwing.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...V. 22:3 (68-69): Websites For Traders: MrSwing.com by David Penn MRSWING.COM Do you swing? Whether you are a novice or a veteran trend trader who has discovered that your need for immediate gratification (also known as "ringing the register") is greater than your ability to withstand the inevitable drawdowns and lower winning trade percentages involved in riding out long-term market moves, then call me crazy, but swinging -- as in swing trading -- may be your thing. What is swing trading? As Frederik Van Duuren, better known as "Larry Swing," the creator of MrSwing.com, puts it in a section o...
DAT To The Future by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...V. 22:3 (17-23): DAT To The Future by David Penn Electronic trading has come a long way in the six years since the SEC's display rules of 1997. How have individual traders continued to take advantage of a revolution in access and transparency? In many ways, the evolution of directaccess trading (DAT) is a classic David and Goliath tale. While many rightly point to the explosion in technological capability -- from PCs and the Internet to sophisticated order-routing systems exploiting intelligent networks -- the primary driver of the electronic revolution has been the efforts by the oft-abused a...
Working Money: The Bulls Of 1987 by David Penn
Topping And The Energy Complex
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Recent price trends in crude oil, unleaded gasoline, and heating oil suggest an opportunity to review these techniques for anticipating market tops....
Copper: Recessions, Cycles, And Spins
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Can the economy keep counting on copper?...
Denying The Divergence
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A negative stochastic divergence should have sent bulls scrambling. Instead a new high in the S&P 500 made short work of the bears....
Heating Oil's Diamond Top?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A bounce after a shallow correction helped form the support line that was broken by recent price action....
AIG's Head And Shoulders Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Given the topping action in American International Group, the stock may want to take out an insurance policy on itself....
Third Of A Third?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Updating my "The Alternative Wave Count Cometh" ... could a major Elliott wave event be right around the corner?...
The S&Ps Not-So-Symmetrical, Not-So-Perfect Intraday Triangle Breakdown
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Pattern perfection is sometimes not all it's cracked up to be....
Is Lumber Headed Lower?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A breakdown from this head and shoulders top could see lumber prices near 344....
Legg Mason's Trendline Break
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...In a bull market since the summer of 2002, Legg Mason experiences a major trendline break in the summer of 2004....
Coffee's Summer Rally
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Rallying from a springtime correction, July coffee heads higher and higher in summer....
Dow Theory: Nonconfirmations And New Highs
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As the Dow transports soar toward new YTD highs, the Dow industrials struggle to surpass the highs of April....
July Silver: Bottom Or Breakdown?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Silver spent April going down in nearly a straight line. Will silver spend June moving back up?...
Crude Warns Lower
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A major MACDH trough suggests that the top in crude oil futures may be in....
Charting The Market by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...V. 22:6 (90-91): Charting The Market by David Penn SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE Among the first things anyone who studies technical analysis learns is the role that support and resistance play in market price action. Why does a collapse in the price of cattle futures abruptly end and suspend in place, as if tethered by an invisible string? Why does a breakout in a stock occasionally stop dead in its tracks as if it hit a brick wall and refuse to move higher? Often, the answers to these questions are support and resistance, respectively. And while there are some technical analysts (to say nothing ...
Websites For Traders: MarketVolume.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...V. 22:6 (86-88): Websites For Traders: MarketVolume.com by David Penn In the secular trinity of technical analysis ("the Price, the Volume, and the Passage of Time"), volume is included for good reason. While there can be no market without price, there can also be no price movement -- and thus, no profit -- without a pricing mechanism. I'll never forget seeing legendary Austrian economist F.A. Hayek in a PBS interview from the late 1970s criticizing socialism for having, at root, no way to determine the price of anything. The absence of a pricing mechanism -- or, more accurately, the substitutio...
Intermarket Review by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...V. 22:6 (82-83): Intermarket Review by David Penn GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITIES INDEX The Goldman Sachs Commodities Index (GSCI) is a world production?weighted index of commodity prices based on the average quantity of production for the last five years of available data. The index is an appropriate benchmark against which the price performance of commodities can be judged. At the same time, the subgroups of the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index can also be used to measure the price performance of the various commodities that make up the GSCI. The weekly charts of the GSCI subgroups shown here inc...
Working Money: Symmetrical Triangles And The MACDH by David Penn
Les Nonconfirmations Dangereuses?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Strength in the transports plus weakness in the industrials equals a summer of listless trading in the markets, no matter what the language....
Confirmation Comes To The Averages
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...While Dow theorists eagerly watched to see if the Averages would take out their May lows, recent closes beneath the July lows may already tell a bearish tale....
Journey to the End of the Diagonal
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Ending diagonal triangles are one of the many ways Elliott wave analysts bring five-wave movements to a close....
Lumber in August
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Will recent highs in lumber futures mark the top of the bull market?...
Bears Falling on Cotton
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Since breaking down in the spring of 2004, cotton futures have lost a third of their value in four months....
A Portrait of General Electric as a 2B Test of Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A favorite technique for spotting potential market tops and bottoms appears as shares of General Electric test their June highs....
The Moving Average Trilogy
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A short-covering rally in the $OEX runs into resistance at the 20-, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages....
Amazon Shrugged
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A head and shoulders top in the hourly chart of this internet stalwart suggests lower prices for Amazon in the near term....
Best Buy: The Bid Is A Lonely Hunter
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...While some may have longed for a head and shoulders bottom, the July breakdowns in Best Buy add to the saga of retail's woes....
Silver's Cup With Handle Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After a perilous drop in April from over $8 to under $6, is silver ready to rally?...
Red Hat Goes Splat
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Leading Linux distributor + accounting irregularities = gaps down and a failed rally into resistance....
Natural Gas Warns Lower
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Deep MACDH troughs point to lower prices ahead for December natural gas....
The Volatility Index: How Low Can it Go?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Lower now than during the bull market peak in 2000, is this what bull markets are made of?...
The Ten-year Treasury Yield's Diamond Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Lower long rates look likely in the short term. But after that, a run up to 5.6% or higher might be what the market is gearing up for....
"Run OJ! Run!"
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Was that merely the legendary exhortation to a fleeing celebrity accused of a double homicide? Or the cry of jubilant orange juice futures bulls? We chart. You decide....
A Golden Zigzag?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A gap up gets filled and gold looks to move lower....
The Homebuilding Gap
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...I don't know if there is a bubble in housing. But there's been an exhaustion gap in the homebuilder's index. And it just got filled to the downside....
Websites For Traders: DayTradingCoach.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Websites For Traders: DayTradingCoach.com by David Penn DAYTRADINGCOACH.COM Which recommendation haunts fledgling traders the most? Is it the notion of having to raise tens of thousands of dollars in starting capital? Is it the thought of having to spend hundreds of dollars on complicated computer hardware and software in order to be competitive with other dedicated, high-tech traders? Maybe it's the invocation to find a singular method and stick with it. ? Maybe it's learning to take small losses early -- even if it means not making a dime for months. ? I suspect the answer is different for...
Intermarket Review by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Intermarket Review by David Penn EURO Originally poised to be both rival and complement to the US dollar in the world of foreign exchange, the euro's miserable start in 1999 has become a stunning bull market by 2004. The euro is the currency of the 12 nations that make up the European Union (Belgium, Germany, Greece, Spain, France, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, and Finland). AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Heavily influenced by the role that commodity production and export play in the Australian economy, the Australian dollar (or "aussie," as forex traders refer to it) ...
Working Money: Bearish Confirmations by David Penn
Charting The Market by David Penn
Sector Spotting
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Strength in semiconductor and box maker indexes may point toward opportunities in a number of stocks....
The Super Bowl Strategy
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Does the winner of the Super Bowl determine a bullish or bearish market for the year that follows?...
Pimping The Dollar
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Debasing the dollar and other dirty deeds done dirt cheap....
MEDI and the MACD
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The MACD histogram can be an effective tool in spotting short opportunities as well as longs....
Precious Metals Turn Up
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Tick ups in the MACD histogram and upward "buy hooks" in the stochastic oscillator point to higher prices for silver and gold in the near-term....
Big Breakouts In Little Triangles
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...One tenet of swing trading suggests taking big gains as soon as you get them. The recent action in Rf Microdevices, Inc. (RFMD) is one example why....
The Euro Pullback
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The dollar strenghening, gold slipping ... euro bulls have seen this act before....
Amazon's Sideways Correction
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A double zigzag appears to be ending in Amazon (AMZN), which could mean new multi-month highs....
Materials Move Up
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After a brief, three-day pullback, basic materials stocks look to resume their advance....
Treasury Yields And MACD Histogram Peaks
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...An extremely high MACD histogram in the weekly chart of the ten-year Treasury note yields back in August suggests that rates are going significantly higher....
Websites For Traders by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Websites For Traders by David Penn ORIGINALTURTLES.ORG Earlier last year, I completed a website review of TurtleTrader.com (Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES, April 2003). Given the mystery that still surrounds the now-legendary trading experiment of Market Wizards Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt, I thought that TurtleTrader.com was an excellent place for those interested in the Turtle Trading methodology to spend some time studying. In addition to being a site dedicated to the passionate advocacy of the Turtle Trading system, I found TurtleTrader.com to be every bit as much a p...
Working Money: Buying The Lows, Selling The Highs by David Penn
The Coming Confirmation?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A major Dow theory showdown looms as the averages test the March 2002 highs....
Gold's 3-3-5 Flat
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...In Elliott wave analysis, a flat is a generally sideways moving price pattern--at least until the end....
Dow Theory And Confirming The Transport's February Down Move
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Dow Averages continue to thrash about, neither able to confirm the moves of the other....
The Nasdaq's Failed Head And Shoulders Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...When a pattern breaks down, standing aside is one option. Taking the other side is another....
Home Starts, Homebuilders And Histograms
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...MACD histogram peaks near the 50-day moving average can be a bearish sign of things to come....
Confirmations And The January Highs
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With the Transports' move down unconfirmed by the Industrials, will a rising Transports Average confirm the Industrials' rally above the January highs?...
Dow Theory Divergences
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As the Transports plunge toward multi-month lows, what happens if the Industrials fail to follow suit?...
Intermarket Review by David Penn
Working Money: Rising All The Way Down by David Penn
Working Money: The Rally Rolls On by David Penn
Confirming Divergences
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Divergences help you spot potential tops and bottoms in the market. Confirmation helps you trade them....
Trendlines: From Support To Resistance
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Whether as support or resistance, trendlines can play more than one role in bull markets....
Nasdaq Nears Confirmation Of Its Negative Divergence--Again
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Divergence + Confirmation = Reversal. Is the Nasdaq ready to roll?...
A Simple Short-Term Entry Strategy
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Legendary trader Marty Schwarz swore by the 10-day EMA. Here's an application of his "red light/green light" approach on an intraday basis....
Mighty Martha Stewart Omnimedia
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The same kind of resistance-turned-support in a trend channel that has carried the S&P 500 higher has also benefited MSO....
Blockbuster's Bullbusting Divergences
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Up strongly over the past month, shares of Blockbuster have joined the broader market in warning of lower levels....
Semiconductors, Channels, And Divergences
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As the semiconductor HOLDRS snake their way through a trend channel, a December positive stochastic divergence suggests higher prices ahead....
Colgate's Cup With Handle Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A deep MACDH trough and a gap up above the 50-day EMA suggest higher prices ahead for the stock of this consumer noncyclical goods company....
The Trouble With THC's Double Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...How a bearish engulfing candlestick warned double-bottom bulls that the party was over....
Testing The Channel
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...An early November channel breakout + an early December test of resistance-turned-support = higher prices for the S&P 500 in the near term....
An Intraday Flag In The Emini S&P
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The S&P 500 waved its freak flag high as an early morning bounce caught bears by surprise. Frantic short-covering ensued....
An Intraday Diamond In The S&P 500
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A diamond top in the 60-minute S&P 500 chart sets the stage for a short-term correction in stocks....
Cocoa Pops
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Volume clues a dip-buying opportunity in cocoa....
Charting The Market by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 22:12 (99-100): Charting The Market by David Penn GAPS Are gaps to technical analysts what stock splits are to fundamental analysts: clear evidence of a market event, the significance of which is often inversely related to the level of glad surprise the event itself elicits? Thus, during the stock market bubble years of the late 1990s, television advertisements for brokerage firms would routinely feature "regular" guy (and gal) traders and investors babbling about how XYZ Trade Inc. kept them abreast of all the things a "serious trader/investor" needs: upgrades, downg...
Intermarket Review by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 22:12 (66-67): Intermarket Review by David Penn How do you spell "inflation"? O-I-L? How about long-term interest rates, such as those attached to the 10-year US Treasury note? If you are a supply-side economist of the Jude Wanniski school, then maybe you will refuse to shout "inflation" until you see the color of the eyes of the "POG," more familiarly known as the price of gold. Then again, if you believe that an inflating dollar has to have another currency against which to depreciate in value, how about the Swiss franc, that stalwart European currency of the inflati...
Working Money: The Dow Days Of Summer by David Penn
Product Review: AllPennyStocks.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 22:12 (122-124): Product Review: AllPennyStocks.com by David Penn ALLPENNYSTOCKS.COM You know you shouldn't. Deep down, you know better, don't you? But still, you just can't help yourself. Twenty cents a share for a company just about to make it into the big time. ? A buck fifty a share for this tiny, great little outfit that nobody knows about -- yet. And there you are, waiting to enter on the ground floor. You want to do it. You can't help yourself. But you also can't help but remember everything that everybody told you about penny stocks -- much of which is probably ...
Websites For Traders: CandlestickShop.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 22:12 (102-103): Websites For Traders: CandlestickShop.com by David Penn CANDLESTICKSHOP.COM It must be entertaining to technical analysts who have used candlestick charts for years to learn of the almost mystical regard that some technicians have for them. Part of this is probably the packaging. For all the colorful descriptions of technical price action -- from deadcat bounces to breakouts -- you really have to take off your hat to some of the emotive phraseology embedded in Japanese candlesticks. From the hanging man pattern -- which sounds like the title of some earl...
Waiting For Breakouts
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Good, old-fashioned breakouts from consolidations may be the technician's equivalent of a waist-high fastball. But traders who wait for the hanging change-up might find themselves with an even better pitch to hit....
The Dollar Also Rises
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...What do debt and the short squeeze have to do with the possibility of an advancing greenback? Over the next several months, the answer might be: everything....
Fedex's Hourly Head And Shoulders Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...What do you do when a pattern absolutely, positively has to be a reversal?...
If On An Intraday Correction A Divergence ...
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...How much of a surprise was the August 16th "surprise" rally?...
The Diamond In Lincoln National
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Does the diamond top in Lincoln National anticipate broader weakness through the insurance industry?...
For Feeder Cattle Futures Who Have Considered Cup With Handle Patterns When The Rally Wasn't Enuf
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Has the bull market in cattle futures run out of steam? A look at the hourly chart of October feeder cattle suggests not....
Catch 1-2-3
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Yahoo (YHOO) makes a 1-2-3 trend reversal, gapping down all the way....
Lonesome Oil
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Oil prices are rocketing to new highs nearly every day. So why aren't the oil stocks going along for the ride?...
Treasury Diamonds Are Forever
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...How much longer will long rates trend lower?...
Dr. Resistance And Mr. Support
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After breaking down from an intraday triangle, prices rallied back toward the breakdown point in a classic example of support turning into resistance....
Gone With The Triangle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...That's the answer. The question? Where did any hope of a week-ending rally in the $OEX go?...
The Head And The Shoulders
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The market sold into the Democratic national convention and rallied during and out of it. Does the hourly head and shoulders top in the $OEX mean that a similar market move will take place in advance of the GOP convention in August?...
Return Of The Son Of Denying The Divergence
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A double negative divergence signaled a market top in June. Will another double negative divergence signal another top in August?...
Gap Counter Gap
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A one-day island reversal in shares of Goldman Sachs points to lower prices going forward....
Sometimes A Gold Notion
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...What if the March highs represented the end of a cyclical bull market in gold?...
Websites For Traders: FuturesKnowledge.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Websites For Traders: FuturesKnowledge.com by David Penn FUTURESKNOWLEDGE.COM Are you interested in finding a futures broker? How about scoring some solid analysis of the markets? Quotes and charts? Are you curious about forex trading, electronic trading, or systems trading? Got a thing for options (or like to know where you could get one)? If you answered "yes" to any of these questions, then knowledge about futures may be what you are after. And if it is futures knowledge that you are looking for, then perhaps Futures Knowledge.com should be among your destinations. FuturesKnowledge.com i...
Working Money: The '94 Rules by David Penn
The '94 Rules
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Ten years ago, rising interest rates sent stocks and bonds reeling. What does the specter of higher interest rates in 2004 suggest about stocks going forward?...
Sugar, Sugar
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Has sugar finally joined the commodities bull market?...
Bearish Confirmations
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...What can investors and traders make of the first bearish confirmation in the Dow averages in a year?...
Silver's Slippery Symmetrical Triangle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...An early April symmetrical triangle in silver futures produced a vertigo-inducing collapse by mid-month....
Is Coffee Percolating Higher?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...If coffee futures hold support at 6930, then a third wave of much higher prices could be right around the corner....
The Alternative Wave Count Cometh
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...What if the market topped in the first quarter of 2004?...
The 10-Year Treasury's Hourly Head And Shoulders Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...How intraday technical analysis saw the collapse in Treasury notes....
Websites For Traders: CANSLIM.net by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 22:4 (99-100): Websites For Traders: CANSLIM.net by David Penn CANSLIM.NET When veteran traders and stockpickers are asked, "How do I get started in the stock market?" many point to one book: William O'Neil's classic, ""How To Make Money In Stocks."" This book, which was first published in 1988, is infused with both an optimism that is exceptional for its directness and simplicity ("Success in a free country is simple. Get a job, get an education, and learn to save and invest wisely. Anyone can do it. You can do it"), as well as a hard-as-nails attitude toward investi...
Intermarket Review by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 22:4 (56-57): Intermarket Review by David Penn TURKISH INVESTMENT FUND (TKF) The Turkish Investment Fund (TKF) is a closed-end fund under the advisement of Morgan Stanley Investment Advisors. Traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the fund is geared toward providing investors with exposure to equities of companies based in or out of Turkey. Founded in December 1989, the fund had total net assets in excess of $29 million as of this writing. Holdings in the Turkish Investment Fund include companies such as Turkiye Is Bankasi (banking), Akbank (banking), and Turkc...
Working Money: The Super Bowl Strategy by David Penn
Charting The Market: Stochastics by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 22:4 (120-121): Charting The Market: Stochastics by David Penn STOCHASTICS For many technicians, stochastics are the first real oscillator to be encountered when embarking on the study of technical analysis. Unlike some of the more common-sounding concepts in technical analysis, terms like support and resistance, breakout and breakdown, trading range, relative strength, and pullback, a term like stochastics lets an acolyte technician know he or she has truly entered a different field of knowledge with its own rules, customs, mores, and in-group jargon. What are stoch...
Product Review: ProSticks by David Penn
Product Review: FutureSource Workstation by David Penn
Product Review: Terra Nova Trade Evaluator by David Penn
Product Review: PhotonTrader by David Penn
Product Review: StockShareV2 by David Penn
Product Review: XOCharts by David Penn
Product Review: TBOTS by David Penn
Product Review: Updata Technical Analyst by David Penn
Product Review: MarketAspects 1.3 by David Penn
Product Review: Elwave 7.1 by David Penn
The Gold Triangle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Technical triangles, the "McTeer Put," and the battle for reflation....
The Value Line Arithmetic Index
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...What can the Value Line Arithmetic Index tell us about stocks?...
Sayonara Semiconductor Stocks
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...An intraday head and shoulders top highlights weakness at the top for semiconductor stocks....
Down For The S&P 500's Upstroke
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Present weakness in the market most likely presages future strength....
The Do Or Die Dollar
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Support for the U.S. Dollar Index at 93-92 will be sorely tested in the weeks to come....
Now And Yen
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A massive head and shoulders bottom in the Japanese yen suggests that the bull market in yen is on....
Biotech Balancing Act
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Biotechnology stocks have moved up since an anticipated breakdown a month ago....
Is The Soybean Complex Slipping?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Negative divergences and parabolic moves to the upside suggest caution may be prudent for bean bulls....
Are Hogs Headed Higher?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A mid-summer double top leads to a late summer double bottom as the rally in lean hog futures continues....
Toward A Temporary Yield Top?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A late summer consolidation in 10-year Treasury yields may point to a long, waited-for bounce in government long bonds....
Swing Low Swiss Franc
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A bounce in the September Swiss franc may set up further declines....
Crude Oil Finally Cracks
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A negative divergence sets up a sharply downward turn in crude oil futures....
Websites For Traders: Marketscreen.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Websites For Traders: Marketscreen.com by David Penn MARKETSCREEN.COM It is difficult to imagine a more comprehensive stock screener than the one provided by www.MarketScreen.com. Many screens are available online that provide a staggering array of fundamental criteria -- from price/earnings to institutional ownership to dividend yield -- with which stocks can be filtered and screened, and there is a somewhat smaller number of online stock screening websites that provide a similarly voluminous set of technical criteria, from indicator-based signals to Japanese candlesticks to price and volume ...
Charting The Market by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Charting The Market by David Penn TRIX Long, long ago, in a bull market era that now seems far, far away (that is, 1983), a technical analyst by the name of Jack K. Hutson was trying to tease out of his computer a solution to the "drudgery" of trading. As he wrote in Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES, the new magazine he had begun publishing mere months before: I always felt that by taking just a little time, and cranking out just one more wonderful oscillator or average, that my chances for a profitable trade would be improved. In most cases all I did was reassure myself that I ha...
Working Money: The Reflation Trade by David Penn
Rising All The Way Down
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Are bear market rallies worth the bother?...
Fading The Greenback
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...International currencies suggest that the dollar may be down, but it isn't quite out yet....
Buying The Lows, Selling The Highs
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...There are tools to help you handle the temptations of top and bottom picking....
Semiconductors: Sayonara, No! Konichiwa, Yes!
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...When an intraday breakdown failed to take place, semiconductor stocks roared back to the upside....
The S&P 500's Intraday Pennant
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...An eight-hour consolidation in the S&P 500 helped the market resume its bullish ways....
Crude Oil Finally Cracks (Again)
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Having broken down from above $30 highs in September, December crude breaks down again in late October....
The Euro's Cup With Handle Rally
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...An intraday breakout in the EUR/USD sets the stage for an important test of the October highs....
The Late Great Dollar Divergence
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...In spite of recent weakness, a month-long indicator divergence still points toward a higher dollar....
Intraday Tops And Bottoms In The USD/JPY
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A popular reversal set-up shows itself--twice!--within six days, once from the bottom then again from the top....
The Fading Swiss Franc
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Its "B" wave all but complete, the Swiss franc looks set to renew a correction of its three-year bull market....
Telecom's Triple Drop
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After bouncing from the lows in July 2002 and March 2003, will the third time be a charm for telecom?...
December Cocoa's Comeback
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After a two-year bull market and a one year correction, cocoa is poised to move higher....
December Gold's Post-Breakout Blues
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After breaking out from an ascending triangle in early September, December gold finds itself back where the breakout began....
Banks Break Out
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A three and a half month trading range in the regional banks HOLDRs leads to a move up as earning season begins....
Working Money: Building A Better Breakout by David Penn
Charting The Market by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Charting The Market by David Penn TRENDLINES First job? first car? first love? There is always something to be said for what comes first. Even if your first job was as stimulating as manual labor on a Virginia plantation, your first car an always-broken-down clunker, and your first love a raving lunatic, it's still hard to forget the first. When it comes to technical tools and indicators, trendlines were "the first" technical tool for a sizable number of budding technical analysts. In fact, I suspect that most technicians can remember the first time they ever pulled up a price chart of some ...
Websites For Traders: MoneyTec by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Websites For Traders: MoneyTec by David Penn MONEYTEC.COM The Internet revolution has brought many opportunities to the desktops and personal digital assistants of traders and investors of all types -- from novices looking for better ways to limit their exposure to equity downturns, to daytraders who survived both raging bull and agonizing bear markets, to market veterans who are finally forcing themselves to use any one of the many online, web-based charting services instead of plotting out all their price points by hand. But one of the more overlooked aspects of the Internet revolution is ...
The Rally Rolls On
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Transports, triple bottoms, and third waves: the three Ts of higher stock prices in the near term....
The Triangle In January Feeder Cattle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The resolution of this October/November triangle will tell a great deal about the bull market in cattle....
The Retail HOLDRs Diamond Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Is it time for bargain-hunting in the retail sector?...
Time-Out for Transports?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...This intraday head and shoulders pattern that completed in mid-November should just lead to a pause that refreshes in the markets....
March Cocoa's Intraday Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...While coffee continues to languish, cocoa makes a move to the upside....
An Intraday Cup With Handle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A test of the successful breakout from this intraday cup with handle bottom in the e-mini S&P 500 sets the stage for continued gains....
The Evolution Of The Euro's Trend Channel
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The dramatic fall and fall and rise of the EUR/USD as seen through the lens of a trend channel....
Sinking Sideways
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Five-month long consolidations in cocoa and coffee look similar. Do they reflect bottoms, or lower prices still to come?...
Bullish Consensus by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Bullish Consensus by David Penn This enduring sentiment indicator was designed specifically for the futures markets. "Paradox is one of the deepest and most important secrets of life, and ? irony is the punishment for not having understood that." --James Dines, How Investors Can Make Money Using Mass Psychology During times of confusion in the markets, studies of market sentiment tend to become popular. This is probably unfortunate. It is the absence of a clear, distinct trend that forces uncertain market players to look away from their indicators and trendlines, their oscillators, and their...
Charting The Markets by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Charting The Markets by David Penn MOMENTUM Momentum? The Big Mo? Is there anything in the physical world more exciting than momentum? If you're going slowly and you gain momentum, you're going faster. If you're already going fast and you gain momentum, watch out! Speed may be king, but momentum is what propels unknown political candidates into front-runner status, what makes a team ending the regular season on a 10-game winning streak a real terror when the playoffs start. If it is true, as Madison Avenue would have it, that things go better with Coke, then things go great with Mo....
WorkingMoney: Insiders by David Penn
Bear Market Rallies
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A look at upward second Elliott waves and the springtime terror of the bears....
The People's Rally
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...It's "Down With Gloom Day" and everybody's celebratin'......
Will Energy Plays Pay Off?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Herrick Payoff Index points to bearish divergences in crude oil futures. Is a reversal in the making?...
The Greenback's 2B Test of Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The US Dollar index approaches a major test of lows set back in October 1998....
Treasury Triangles and Consolidations
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A symmetrical triangle pointed to a key breakdown in a 10-year Treasury note yields....
Copper Comes Back
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...An island bottom and rising MACD point toward higher copper prices going forward....
Corn Turns the Corner
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A 1-2-3 trend reversal marks a bottom in corn futures....
Revisiting the Yen's Head and Shoulders Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...In the land of the rising yen, it appears as if the bottom is in....
Cup With Handle Bottoms
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Both the Gold Bugs Index and Philly Gold and Silver suggest that gold stocks are on their way up....
The Triangle Breakout in Beans
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Now that they've broken out, how far will they move up?...
The Nasdaq's 2B Test of Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Does failure to follow-through on the April 29th highs mean the Nasdaq is finally headed lower?...
Websites For Traders: FinancialSense.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Websites For Traders: FinancialSense.com by David Penn FINANCIALSENSE.COM Who is Jim Puplava? Among other things, Puplava is the man behind Financial Sense Online, a website that serves as a gateway to Puplava's investment advisory and money management firm, Puplava Financial Services. The site also features his talk show, Financial Sense Newshour, and a sizable set of essays, articles, and interviews by and about some of the most "outside the box" thinkers and writers on economics and finance today. Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International, Doug Noland of Prudent Bear, and Marc Faber ...
Charting The Market by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Charting The Market by David Penn Here's a sample MICEX chart showing some news events in 2002 and accompanying market shifts. Coincidence? You decide....
Working Money: Elliott Waves In C by David Penn
Precious Metals Pullback
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Let's look back on the first leg of the secular bull market in precious metals....
Social Mood And The Markets
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ..."When the mode of the music changes," wrote Plato, "the walls of the city shake."...
Revisiting Copper Tops
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A "third strike" looms against the rally in copper futures....
June Crude Breaks Down
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Signs of slowing momentum in mid-February lead to a trendline break in mid-March....
Four or More Plus One Reversal
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Can Sperandeo's Four Day Corollary work on an intraday basis?...
Cocoa's Descending Triangle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After failing to take out the October highs, cocoa looks poised to test the November lows....
The Dow Utilities' Head and Shoulders Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Like the S&P 500, the DJUA also developed a multi-year head and shoulders top....
Short-term 2B Tests of Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are making significant tests of near-term lows....
Vouching for Volume
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...High-volume trendline breakdowns aren't always all they're cracked up to be....
Lennar's Diamond Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Housing bubble? Maybe not, but the stocks are in trouble....
Intermarket Review by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Intermarket Review by David Penn - JAPANESE YEN - CANADIAN DOLLAR - BRITISH POUND - AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR...
Websites For Traders: The-Privateer.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Websites For Traders: The-Privateer.com by David Penn THE-PRIVATEER.COM If investing is a journey, then Bill Buckler -- editor and publisher of the newsletter The Privateer -- is more than happy to be your captain. As Buckler announces in his on-site bio, "From The Quarterdeck," there might be little in the way of his background or résumé that would make him appear a more capable steward of investment themes than those money managers who, in the midst of a raging bear market, have simply been losing clients' money hand over fist. Bill Buckler is no high-paid money manager, no investment guru, ...
Charting The Market by David Penn
Working Money: 1-2-3 Trend Reversals by David Penn
The Reflation Trade
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Which of the three trains running--gold, bonds, or stocks--will continue to go investors' way?...
The September Greenback's 1-2-3 Reversal?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With the world tilted toward expectations of a lower dollar, this trend reversal strategy will help tell a mere bounce from a real reversal in the greenback's fortunes....
An Intermediate Double Top in September Wheat
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After a short, sharp rally at the beginning of May, wheat futures are headed back down....
The Gold Bug and the Ascending Triangle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The triangle in the gold bugs index ($HUI) is the best thing going for gold bulls. But the index's bearish divergence with the MACD--along with a declining gold price--give plenty of pause for thought....
Have the Energies Had Enough?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Six-week trendline breaks to the downside and volume oscillators turning lower are among the factors that contribute to a bearish outlook on the energies....
Head and Shoulders Top in European Currencies
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Look out below for the euro ... and the Swiss franc, too. Both of these alternatives to the American dollar appear headed for correction....
July Platinum's 2B Test of Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Does a successful test of the May highs mean lower prices for platinum?...
Coffee Grinding Down
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After a rally in late spring, coffee futures are making new contract lows. What will it take for a turnaround?...
Is It "Now Time" For Natural Gas?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A dead-cat bounce in a volume indicator suggests that natural gas may be headed lower....
Has the Gold Bough Been Broken?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As gold stocks soar toward resistance, gold futures appear to have topped out for the time being....
A Reversal in Juice?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After a 10-month bear market, orange juice futures are rallying from late spring lows....
The Return of Copper Tops
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Bearish in February, bullish in May, is it time to get bearish again on copper futures?...
The S&P 500's MACD Triple Bottom Breakout
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Bears might not like it, but the bulls are taking the S&P 500 higher....
July Soybeans Head and Shoulders Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After breaking out from a seven-month consolidation, soybeans' higher days may be behind it....
The Nasdaq and the Four Day Corollary
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The only thing more amazing about the Nasdaq's rally since March is that it hasn't featured more than four consecutive up days....
Money Flow and the Aussie
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Down under and running for cover, the Australian dollar's bull market looks all but over....
Working Money: Social Mood And The Markets by David Penn
Charting The Market by David Penn
Insiders
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...When it comes to investing, it is often wise to go with the ones who know....
Dollars, Debt, Stocks, And "Things"
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The conventional wisdom on the markets continues to be turned on its head....
Building A Better Breakout
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...How Donchian channels can help separate great, don't-look-back breakouts from merely good ones....
A Double Top In October Hogs
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The payoff was swift for bears circling around the double top in lean hog futures....
The Summer Correction In Natural Gas
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A negative divergence in the MACD and a broken trendline conspire to send natural gas futures reeling....
Revisiting The Triple Bottom Breakout
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Would a steep pullback in the S&P 500 set the stage for a resumption of the bull market?...
The Reversal That Didn't Reverse
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...What the MACD appears to giveth, it also can taketh away....
The Nasdaq's "Don't Look Back" Breakout
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A breakout beyond and test of resistance at a 20-day high signals more upside ahead for the Nasdaq....
September Crude's 2B Test of Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...While the world waits anxiously for thousands of barrels of Iraqi oil to enter the market, this technical indicator suggests that cheaper oil may be coming--one way or the other....
A Top in Transports?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...How the Dow Transports handle a nearby resistance level might tell investors all they need to know about the resilience of this bear market rally....
December Cotton's June Flag
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A two-week pullback in cotton futures anticipates higher prices in the near-term....
Intermarket Review by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Intermarket Review by David Penn ? MSCI SINGAPORE INDEX FUND ? MSCI HONG KONG INDEX FUND ? MSCI MALAYSIA INDEX FUND ? MSCI JAPAN INDEX FUND...
Charting The Market by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Charting The Market by David Penn THE RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX Writing about his relative strength index (RSI) in 1978, J. Welles Wilder noted five different ways that the indicator could be helpful to investors and traders. These include identifying tops and bottoms; confirming chart patterns; looking for "failure swings"; gauging support and resistance; and spotting divergences between rising or falling indicator action versus price action....
Working Money: Intermarket Relationships by David Penn
Gold
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...From gold bugs and gold standards to massive derivative speculation, the yellow metal is back....
Buy And Hold Bonanzas
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Buy and hold investing still works, but you've got to pick the right partners....
A THIRD Take on March Sugar's Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A failed 2B test of top and a severe trendline break suggested sugar was headed lower. But somebody forgot to tell sugar....
Swiss Franc's Head and Shoulders Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The bull market in the Swiss franc looks due for a mild correction....
The Yen's Head and Shoulders Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Does an appreciating currency suggest more deflation for the land of the rising yen?...
Revisiting "Third Waves: Then and Now"
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Extensions and third Elliott waves....
Revisiting the "S&P 500's 60-minute Complex Head and Shoulders Top"
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...How a bearish complex top got even more complex--and more bearish....
The Euro's Cup with Handle Breakout
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The greenback's loss has been the euro's gain....
The January Reversal: 2B or Not 2B?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...New highs need follow-through in order to be trusted....
Revisiting the Cotton Club Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Double bottom becomes cup with handle, but cotton stays high....
Reversals, Price Channels and Candlesticks
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...When spotting a trend reversal, use all the help you can get....
Working Money: Bear-Baiting & The Dogs Of The Dow by David Penn
Intermarket Review by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Intermarket Review by David Penn THE AMEX GOLD BUGS INDEX ($HUI) The AMEX Gold BUGS (basket of unhedged gold stocks) index represents shares of gold mining and production companies that do not engage in hedging their gold beyond 11?12 years. The index is designed to give investors better exposure to movements in the price of gold compared to other, broader indexes such as the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index ($XAU). ...
Elliott Waves In C
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Declining C waves are the most destructive patterns in Elliott wave analysis. Here's looking back on some of the worst....
Down Goes The Dollar!
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Does a falling dollar mean that deflationary risks are overblown?...
Copper Tops
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A 1-2-3 trend reversal leads to a 2B test of top for copper futures....
Transports Test October Lows
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With all attention on the sagging blue chips, the Dow Transports are staging an important test of the October lows....
Ascending Triangle in Soybeans
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...While wheat and corn struggle to establish a bottom, soybeans consolidate for what might be another leg up....
A Bottom in Grains?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A diamond bottom in corn and a developing head and shoulders bottom in wheat suggest near-term higher prices for grains....
Fibonacci and Fifth Waves
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...When does an Elliott fifth wave end? Often, when a Fibonacci ratio says so....
Has Lumber Bottomed?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Bump-and-run reversal or set up for a head and shoulders bottom ... the lumber bear market appears to be ending....
Websites For Traders: StockFetcher.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Websites For Traders: StockFetcher.com by David Penn STOCKFETCHER.COM One of the fascinating things about the technology sector implosion has been the movement by many technology product manufacturers to load more and more features into and onto a given product. Thus, not only do we have personal computers that surf the web, play music, and edit digital video, but we also have cell phones that take photographs and refrigerators with flatscreen LCD monitors....
Intermarket Review by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Intermarket Review by David Penn THE NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE (NYSE) FINANCIAL INDEX ($NFA) The NYSE financial index consists of more than 900 banks, brokerage houses, savings and loan institutions, insurance companies, and other financial corporations. Top financial institutions such as Citigroup Inc., American International Group, Morgan Stanley Corp., Bank of America, and Wells Fargo are among the index's components. The index is designed to track the performance of the major and most widely traded financial stocks in the New York Stock Exchange....
The Bulls Of 1987
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Two bull markets entered in 1987. Only one got out alive. Was that a lesson for today's markets?...
Gold's End-of-Year Glitter
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As the head and shoulders top in $HUI disappears, higher prices for gold stocks emerge....
Semiconductors Lead Nasdaq Bounce
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The November double top caught the attention of bears. But bulls liked the positive stochastic divergence and rising MACD histogram....
FedEx Fallout
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A bearish divergence then, an island gap now ... FedEx looks lower....
Transport Trouble
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Dow Transports set a new high in December--barely. Now a bearish stochastic divergence, 2B test of top, and a mildly overbought market may force a test of support at the 50-day EMA....
An Intraday Nasdaq Head And Shoulders Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...This bullish chart pattern suggests new 52-week highs in the Nasdaq in the near term....
Cadence Design Systems' Bullish Flag
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The bullish flag in Cadence Design (CDN) is another symbol of the rebound in software stocks....
Dow 3,000
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Dow Transports need to take out their November highs or this bull market will be in trouble in the near term....
A Diamond In The Yen
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A diamond pattern that developed in yen futures suggests higher prices for the Japanese currency in the near term....
How the E-mini Nasdaq 100 Stole Thanksgiving
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...An intraday double bottom in mid-November set up a great opportunity to the long side in the run-up to the Thanksgiving holiday....
Defense Stocks On The Offensive
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As the Philly Defense stocks index rallies to new 52-week highs, a number of defense stocks--including the much-beleagured Boeing--look poised to bounce....
Websites For Traders: FuturesRef.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Websites For Traders: FuturesRef.com by David Penn FUTURESREF.COM Was there anything cooler in the financial world in the 1970s than being a futures trader? Rampant inflation fueled manias in commodities from soybeans in 1973 and sugar in 1974 to orange juice in 1977 and silver in 1979....
Intermarket Review by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Intermarket Review by David Penn BRAZIL FUND (BZF) The Brazil Fund is a closed-end fund traded on the New York Stock Exchange. The fund is advised by Deutsche Investment Management (Americas) Inc., and has been in existence since April 1988. With total net assets in excess of $220 million, the Brazil Fund includes holdings in such Brazilian companies as Companhia de Bebidas das Americas (breweries and distilleries), Banco Itau Holding Financeira SA (banks), and Petróleo Brasileiro SA (oil, gas, petrochemicals)....
Websites For Traders: Forex-City.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Websites For Traders: Forex-City.com by David Penn FOREX-CITY.COM Forex and foreign exchange trading have been the "in" thing among many traders over the past few years. Some of this is certainly due to initiatives on the part of forex trading brokerages to make forex trading easier and less expensive for average retail traders likely to be burned out by the expense (commissions, margin rates) and hassle (uptick rules on shorting) of daytrading stocks....
Charting The Market by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Charting The Market by David Penn MOVING AVERAGES If trendlines are the first thing that most traders and technical analysts learn to do with a chart, moving averages are perhaps a close second. Rereading swing trader Dave Landry's commentary about a moving average ?based trading system he developed back in the mid-1990s, I saw one concise explanation of why -- in a world of ever more complex approaches to trading the markets -- moving averages continue to matter: ...continuded...
Working Money: Kings of Commodities by David Penn
Working Money: Bear Market Bottoms by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Working Money: Bear Market Bottoms by David Penn Can history help us recognize the end of the bear market before it arrives? The rally in equities during October 2002 appeared like a land bird spotted by a sailor lost at sea. In some respects, given the depth of the decline in indexes such as the Standard & Poor's 500 index since March 2002 (and before that, the decline since March 2000), it is almost surprising that more commotion hasn't been made out of the S&P 500's 130-point, 17% rally, which began with the bottom of October 10, 2002. With the current bear market beginning to rival...
Kings Of Commodities
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The dollar's turnaround will challenge the bull markets in gold: both black and yellow....
End Of Bond Days
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The "salad days" are over for bonds, PIMCO bond guru Bill Gross says. If that's true, then what can investors and traders anticipate in the way of an entree?...
Bye, Bye Banks?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A head and shoulders top in the regional banks HOLDR suggests a correction is near....
Natural Gas: Another Look At The Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Was the summer correction in natural gas only the beginning of an even deeper descent?...
Will Fannie Mae Bounce?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A major test of the lows looms for mortgage finance titan Fannie Mae....
A Head And Shoulders Bottom In Natural Gas
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Countertrend bounce or new bull market, natural gas is poised to move higher....
Cocoa's Double Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After falling over eight hundred points from its January peak, cocoa looks ready to rally....
The Greenback Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A cup with handle bottom clashes against a 1-2-3 trendline break to the downside....
October Cotton's Island Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After a vertigo-inducing rally in early June, an island reversal threatens to send October cotton futures from whence they came....
Grains Gone Wild
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Rallies from July lows take the form of gaps in September beans and corn....
An Intraday Double Bottom In USD/JPY
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A positive divergence between the MACD indicator and the greenback/yen pair provides an intraday buying opportunity....
An Intraday Head And Shoulders Top In EUR/USD
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...An old rally, a MACD negative divergence, a 1-2-3 trend reversal ... after bouncing at the beginning of August, the euro starts to slip against the greenback....
Biotech Breakdowns Dead Ahead
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Falling below major moving averages suggests pullbacks and corrections in biotechs across the board....
Coffee's Double Bottom Comeback?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Do a positive MACD divergence and moving average support point to higher coffee prices?...
A Five-Wave Look At The Spring/Summer Rally of 2003
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...An Elliott wave interpretation of the current bull market suggests a correction before higher prices....
Intermarket Review by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Intermarket Review by David Penn GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITIES INDEX The Goldman Sachs Commodities Index (GSCI) is a world production?weighted index of commodity prices based on the average quantity of production for the last five years of available data. In addition to being a benchmark against which commodity price performance can be judged, the subgroups of the GSCI are equally reliable measures of the price performance of the various commodities that make up the GSCI. The provided weekly charts of these subgroups include both the 20- and 50-period moving averages....
Charting The Market by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Charting The Market by David Penn ON-BALANCE VOLUME Interviewed by BusinessWeek magazine late in the spring of 2002, legendary market forecaster and technical analyst Joseph Granville was asked, "Does technical analysis still work?" The journalist further wondered whether technical analysis is superior to Wall Street analysis, and if so, whether Granville's personal technical methods would work "forever." Granville's response was both classic Granville and classic market technician: Of course. Truth is never out of date. There's only two things that can change the value of a stock -- supply...
Working Money: Bear Market Rallies by David Penn
Intermarket Relationships
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...From commodities and bonds to stocks and the US dollar, can intermarket relationships tell us where we are headed?...
Breaking Trendlines
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The prewar rally could be the calm before a perfect stock market storm....
The Euro's Diamond Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...An important test of top awaits the euro....
VIX: The Agony of Ecstasy
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The VIX suggests that people are feeling better about stocks. Is that good news for the market?...
The S&P 500's 2B Test of Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...How could a technician have caught the mid-March rally?...
Diagonal Triangles
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Is an Elliott wave-style diagonal triangle in the S&P 500 anticipating a swift move to the downside?...
July Cotton's Diamond
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Is the two-month diamond consolidation at the top of the cotton rally a signal that a top is near?...
Gas Goes Down
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Technical signs of a breakdown in unleaded gas were abundant for those who watched closely....
The S&P 500's 50-Week Lid
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A long-term moving average threatens the index's spring rally....
Support and Commodities
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...An important test of support looms for the CRB Index now that its year-long bull market is over....
May Coffee's 2B Test
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Does a short-term 2B test of bottom anticipate an upswing in coffee futures?...
Is the Pig Party Over?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A failed 2B test of top leads to a head and shoulders breakdown in June hogs....
Websites For Traders: TurtleTrader.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Websites For Traders: TurtleTrader.com by David Penn TURTLETRADER.COM If there is a Holy Grail of trading (a colossal "if" in the minds of many), then it most likely consists less of trading systems and more of a set of processes, procedures, and precepts: Ride your winners and cut your losers short. When you are trading well, bet biggest, and when you are trading poorly, pull back or stop trading altogether. And last but not least, don't fight the trend. While there are modifications and stylistic differences among traders as to the best way to execute this process -- from scalpers who cut ...
Working Money: Gold by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Working Money: Gold by David Penn From gold bugs and gold standards to massive derivative speculation, the yellow metal is back. All that glitters is not gold, goes the saying. But as far as investors are concerned, gold seems to be the only asset class with any shine at all. Gold mutual funds -- as noted in Barron's "Mutual Funds" section for December 16, 2002 -- look poised to deliver returns to gold bugs that would make even the luckiest dotcom speculator salivate with envy. An exaggeration? Consider the Gabelli Gold Fund AAA, which is up 75.91% year to date, or perhaps the Rydex Precious ...
Product Review: QCharts 4.3 by David Penn
Product Review: The Options Investigator by David Penn
Product Review: RealTick 7.6/Hottrend by David Penn
Product Review: MarketAspects by David Penn
Product Review: Secrets To Becoming A Samurai Trader by David Penn
Product Review: MarketGauge by David Penn
Product Review: Strategy Runner by David Penn
Product Review: Ensign Windows by David Penn
Product Review: AIQ TradingExpert Pro by David Penn
PR: Bollinger On Bollinger Bands: The Seminar by David Penn
Product Review: fsXtra Platinum 5.1 by David Penn
Product Review: Stock Watch Pro by David Penn
Revisiting The 4% Solution
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...How has the 4% model indicator performed since 2000?...
Housing Construction Stocks
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Have home construction stocks overgrown their foundations?...
Wave Counts and the S&P's Next Leg Down
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Do the declines of the first half of September augur even steeper declines before month's end?...
Live Cattle's Cup with Handle Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Rebounding from a seven-month downtrend, livestock futures finally start moving up....
A Bullish Flag in Commodities
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The rally in commodities looks to continue after a brief consolidation in mid-September....
December Corn's 2B Test of Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As the CRB Index heads toward resistance, the grains struggle to keep their bull markets alive....
Forex Triangle Tops
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...What do the triangles at the tops of the yen and euro suggest for the US?...
Commodities: Soaring Toward Resistance?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The commodities bull market of 2002 has been a thing of beauty. But is this bull getting a little long in the tooth?...
The S&P 500's Make or Break Diamond
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The break from an intraday diamond formation should tell traders and investors all they need to know about the S&P 500's near-term direction....
The Triangle in Treasuries
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Is there finally a reason to fear the bull market in the 10-year Treasury note?...
Websites For Traders: InvestAvenue.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Websites For Traders: InvestAvenue.com by David Penn Full disclosure: I browse Invest Avenue.com -- a financial website with insights from a variety of fundamentally and technically oriented money managers and analysts -- every day. As in every single day. So it should come as no surprise when I suggest that it is one of the best financial websites for those looking for clues to the behavior of markets around the world. If, as far as you are concerned, markets are markets, wherever they are, and you are willing to pursue the best opportunities wherever they may be, then InvestAvenue.com should ...
Websites For Traders: FXtrek.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Websites For Traders: FXtrek.com by David Penn FXtrek.com bills itself as a "one stop for foreign exchange traders," and for those who consider themselves just a step or two away from real-life forex trading, it's a stop worth making. Little more than a year old (FXtrek.com was launched in April 2001), the website -- with its FXtrek.com University, mini- and regular demo accounts, live picks, neural net forecast, and IntelliCharts -- provides the means for a seamless journey for the would-be forex trader from neophyte to master dealer. "Master dealer"?! Why not? FXtrek.com makes no bones about...
Working Money: Driving Miss Dollar by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Working Money: Driving Miss Dollar by David Penn What does the decline in the dollar say about stocks? Consider the two "dollars" in Figure 1. The first "dollar" represents a retail chain that sells a variety of products at a price of $1.00 or less. This chain -- which runs stores named Dollar Express, Dollar Bills, Only One Dollar, and Only $One -- is ranked particularly high in Investor's Business Daily's stock tables, garnering particularly good marks for industry group relative strength and sales, profit margins, and return on equity. According to IBD, people are accumulating the stock as ...
Bonds For All Occasions II
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A look at the junk, emerging market, mortgage-based, and adjustable-rate bond markets....
Defense Stocks
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With Afghanistan now and Iraq soon to come, can you go wrong investing in defense stocks?...
Bear-Baiting & The Dogs Of The Dow
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Investing in high-yield, low-priced Dow stocks has been a winning game for years -- with the emphasis on "has been."...
Back to the CRB's Bullish Flag
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The bullish flag in the commodities index is back. Will higher commodity prices return, as well?...
The British Pound's Ascending Triangles
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Gaining eleven cents over the summer, the British pound could be headed higher....
The S&P 500's Ascending Triangle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Is this the way the rally ends? Not with a bang, but a triangle?...
A Head and Shoulders Top in Crude
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The summer ascending triangle breakout runs into a head and shoulders top....
Third Waves: Then and Now
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...How real is this countertrend rally? We've been here before ......
Short-term Trouble for Gold Bugs
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A retracement in the Gold Bugs Index suggests patience for owners of gold stocks....
Elliott Wave: Extensions and Retracements
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A minute fifth bottom sets the stage for a bullish, a-b-c correction in October....
Another Triangle in Treasuries
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A breakout from a symmetrical triangle takes the 10-year Treasury into an ascending triangle....
Triangles and the British Pound
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Penny-wise and pound-foolish? Not if these triangles have anything to say about it....
March Sugar's Triple Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The June rally in sugar resumes in September....
S&P 500: Diamond Up or Down?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Starting October with a rally, the S&P 500's next move may be on the other end of a diamond....
The Titans Of Technical Analysis by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Titans Of Technical Analysis by David Penn A not-so-random walk through the history of charting the markets. Many years ago, a poet friend who was editing a collection of contemporary verse noted to me that "about half the working poets in America are going to be really upset about this anthology. Of course, the other half of them are in the book. ?" Such sentiments came to mind when I embarked upon the task of highlighting the few among the many whose contributions to the field of technical analysis have made them what STOCKS & COMMODITIES has designated the "Titans Of Technical Analys...
Bear Market Bottoms
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Can history help us recognize the end of the bear market before it arrives?...
1-2-3 Reversals and Commodities
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The CRB Index has been in a bull market for exactly one year. So what comes next for the subgroups?...
Livestock's Last Upswing
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As the Goldman Sachs Livestock subgroup goes parabolic, it looks like the bull markets in cattle and pork bellies are on their last legs....
The Dow Industrial's Head and Shoulders Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...This bearish reversal pattern is just another sign that the October rally is over....
The S&P 500's 60-minute Complex Head and Shoulders Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Since its October 10th bottom, the S&P 500 has been half uptrend and half consolidation. But now, the S&P 500 is all top....
Intermarket Review by David Penn
Charting The Market by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Charting The Market by David Penn Here's a new section showing some recent news events and accompanying market shifts. Coincidence? You decide....
Websites For Traders: 3DStockCharts.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Websites For Traders: 3DStockCharts.com by David Penn 3DSTOCKCHARTS.COM At a time when the electronic communications networksÝ (or ECNs) industry seems to be in the midst of rapid consolidation, the arrival of 3DStockCharts.com makes perfect sense. 3DStockCharts.com provides both two- and three-dimensional charts and other market data in graphic form for the integrated order books of two recently consolidated ECNs: Island (which was acquired by Instinet) and ARCA (or Archipelago, which merged with the REDIBook ECN in 2001). If, as some have suggested, the consolidation of the ECN industry wa...
Working Money: Connors' Undeniables And Candlestick Clarity by David Penn
Technology's Growing Pains
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Why waiting for the next Cisco probably won't work....
Waiting For The Fed
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...How are monetary-based stock market timing models holding up in the Age of the Bear Market?...
Diamonds in the Rough for the Drug Sector
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The diamond at the bottom of the decline in the S&P Pharmaceuticals Index could mean reversal. But further declines are more likely....
Gold's Diamond Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Nearly four years in the making, is the diamond bottom in gold a sign of higher prices to come?...
Divergences
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...When the DJUA failed to break out, many component stocks fell fast....
Currencies and Equities
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...When a nation's currency leads, that nation's equities have few alternatives but to follow....
Commodity Channel Index
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...When the Fed begins to tighten, Industrials and Basic Materials are often hit hardest....
Working Money: Trends And The 4% Solution by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Working Money: Trends And The 4% Solution by David Penn Can you improve your odds of buying bottoms and selling tops? Use both trend-following and momentum-shift approaches to learn when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em. From a technical perspective, there are two general schools of thought when it comes to buying and selling stock. The first is that a position should be entered only when the stock has begun a trend (that is, a series of higher highs and higher lows -- an uptrend -- or a series of lower highs and lower lows -- a downtrend). This, the trend-following school, believes that the ea...
Working Money: Confirming Averages by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Working Money: Confirming Averages by David Penn DOW THEORY What happens when the Dow industrials go where the transports fear to tread? One of the original tenets of Dow theory, and one of the most misunderstood, is the notion that the averages must confirm each other. Generally speaking, this refers to the rising and falling price action of two of the three main Dow Jones averages, the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). These averages have existed since their original inception by Charles Dow, though the actual components of the averages ha...
Gibson's Paradox
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Can an old gold-standard truism tell us anything about stocks and bonds today?...
Fuzzy Math Redux
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Is this what bear markets sound like?...
Mass Index
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Let profits reign using this range-based trend reversal indicator....
Intraday Momentum Index
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Let "up" days and "down" days dictate market opportunities....
The Global Recovery, Asian-Style
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Revisiting Asian Tigers as the recovery takes hold in the U.S....
Russia Rising
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After the debt crisis of 1998, Russia and other Eastern European countries spent three years in the wilderness. Will 2002 mark the year of Russia's return?...
Goodbye, Gold?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Does June gold's retreat from its January highs mean the end of the yellow metal's bull market?...
A Head and Shoulders Top in Hogs
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After a bull market run from under 61 in October to over 68 in March, a head and shoulders top looks ready to take June hogs back down....
A Head and Shoulders Bottom in Beans
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With the CRB Index going parabolic, May soybeans look to break out from a five-month bottom....
A Double Bottom in Utilities
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Time for another thirty points in the Dow Jones Utilities Average?...
Light Crude Tests Rally Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Since hitting a bottom in November, June crude has gained more than 20%. Does a second failed test of the rally high mean the party's over for the bulls?...
TrendVUE.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...TrendVUE.com by David Penn TRENDVUE.COM "Get yourself a mentor." Of all the advice that professional traders give aspiring traders, that suggestion must be the most daunting piece of wisdom to translate into action. After all, not unlike an aspiring artist from the small country town who finally saves up enough to move to the big city, apprentice traders often find it difficult to cultivate relationships with traders successful and talented enough to serve as trading mentors....
TRIX Is For Traders by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...TRIX Is For Traders by David Penn This momentum indicator keeps you in trends for as long as you like. A drawback of moving average? based indicators has always been the lag: Moving averages often provide buy and sell signals long after much of a big move has already occurred. Although this is a relative complaint -- is it better to be early and often wrong, or late and often correct? -- it is significant enough that some traders seek to get more out of moving averages. Weighting and exponentially smoothing moving averages are among the methods used to get moving averages to yield buy/sell sig...
Bonds For All Occasions (I)
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Is there a fixed-income investment for every economic climate?...
Driving Miss Dollar
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...What does the decline in the dollar say about stocks?...
The Euro: Triangles, Flags and More Triangles
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...From a February bottom of 0.8560 to a recent high of 0.9560, the euro has climbed chart pattern after chart pattern on its way up....
Double-topping Dollar?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Is current greenback bullishness just another countertrend rally in a declining trend? Watch the yen....
Goldman Sachs: Diamonds Up and Diamonds Down
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A January diamond sent shares of Goldman Sachs up in early March. Another diamond threatens to send those same shares down in June....
It's Bottoms Up in the Cotton Club
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ..."Summertime and the living is easy - fish are jumping and the cotton is high." Maybe not "high" yet, but if current trends hold, cotton traders may have reason to look up....
Channels Inside Channels
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Does the development of a higher channel inside a trend channel suggest a break to the upside in commodities?...
Websites For Traders: ChartWatchCentral.com by David Penn
Working Money: Gibson's Paradox by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Gibson's Paradox by David Penn Can an old gold-standard truism tell us anything about stocks and bonds today? One of the more helpful tenets of intermarket technical analysis has been the rediscovery of the leading relationship between stocks and bonds. In most market conditions, stock prices tend to follow bond prices. While there was a significant lag from time to time, this pattern held up remarkably well for most of the 20th century -- so much so that it has become almost a truism among those technical analysts who include intermarket study in their observations. As John Murphy wrote in h...
Injecting Hospital Stocks Into Your Portfolio
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The smallest industry in health care may feature the sector's best buys in stocks....
The Bullish Bears Of Summer
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With stocks down and foreign currencies looking toppish, is there any hope left for a summer rally in equities?...
Golden Crosses, Dead Crosses
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Japanese add a flourish to the old-fashioned moving average crossover....
Petroleum's Head and Shoulders Complex
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Natural gas broke down from a head and shoulders top in July. Will other energy futures follow suit?...
Gold Bugs, Corrections and Comebacks
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Is the long-term bullish case for gold built on the back of the short-term bearish case?...
A Head and Shoulders Kiwi
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After a May breakout and rally, a top has developed in the New Zealand dollar in June and July....
Oracle's Head and Shoulders Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Is Larry Ellison's software outfit headed for higher ground?...
Commodities and Trendline Channels
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With the dollar declining, the CRB Index has broken out on the upside of its spring trend channel....
Triangles and the Run of the Rand
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A symmetrical triangle heralds the end of a greenback rally against the South African currency....
The Triangles of September Wheat
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Upside triangle breakouts send September wheat on a summer rally....
First Philippine's Head and Shoulders Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Down as much as 90% in the wake of the emerging markets fallout, countries like Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines look ready to rebound....
The S&P 500's Five-year Head and Shoulders Hangover
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Believe it or not, the equity bubble of the 1990s may have only begun to burst....
Working Money: That '70s Show by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Working Money: That '70s Show by David Penn These must be confounding times for those who have spent the past five years alerting the investing public to dangers of deflation. Deflation -- the process through which a currency becomes overvalued relative to goods and services available, resulting in a decline in pricing power -- was the last phase of the disinflation wave that began in the early 1980s as the chronic inflation of the 1970s was finally eliminated from the US economy. Most evident in the bearish commodities markets, deflation and its discontents (increased burdens for debtors, for ...
Websites For Traders: PaperTradeFutures.com by David Penn
Bonds And Stocks: Together Again?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After two and a half years of divergence, bond prices look to lead stock prices once again....
Asian Tigers Unite!
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...While Japan's stock market continues to slide, neighbors South Korea and Taiwan rally their way into 2002....
Will the Transports Lead the Industrials Up?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As the Industrials successfully test a range bottom, the Transports move toward a test of an intermediate top....
Intermarket Gold-Digging
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As the gold pullback continues, the S&P 500 precious metals index rallies....
More on the Dollar and Commodities
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...How strong is the secondary correction in the commodity bear market?...
A Bull Market in Gold?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The spring of 2002 should feature a battle between a year-old bull and a six-year old bear....
Fluor's Descending Triangle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Reduced spending by the Calpines and Enrons is bad news for power plant construction and service companies like Fluor....
Is the Bond Bull Market Over?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...One intermarket analysis of the relationship between gold, commodities and interest rates suggests that bonds may be loaded for bear....
Apple Computers' Double Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The latest offering from Steve Jobs & Company has critics and fans buzzing. But the stock market seems less than impressed....
Will Business Services Bounce Back?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...From corporate bankruptcy and reorganization to private corrections, business services companies may be the next industry to boom....
Zweig's Four Percent Solution
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Marty Zweig's 4% buy rule netted QQQ traders nearly 30% in two months. How has the sell signal fared since then?...
The Greenback and the CRB
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...What are dollars and commodities saying about inflation and economic recovery in 2002?...
Conexant Systems' Head and Shoulders Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...While the Semiconductor index starts to round over, shares of Conexant Systems start to head south....
The Dow: Breakout or Bull Trap?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The rally in the fourth quarter of 2001 may be luring bulls into a 2002 trap....
Working Money: Buy American by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Buy American? by David Penn What You Don't Know About Investing Overseas According to Kornitzer Capital Management's Tom Laming, some of the best international investments come from US companies. Confused? Read on. ""Over there ... over there ..."" Investors have long been encouraged to put at least part of their hard-earned dollars to work in the equities markets of other countries. Given the more predictable returns readily available from the US stock markets, convincing investors to invest in companies they may never have patronized, operating in countries they may have never visited, ca...
Point & Figure Charting by David Penn
Utilities: Used And Abused
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With growth companies going nowhere and recession holding the broader economy back, utility stocks with their predictable revenues and big dividends should be the place to be. So why aren't they?...
Trends And The 4% Solution
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Can you improve your odds of buying bottoms and selling tops? Use both trend-following and momentum-shift approaches to learn when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em....
Forming A Dow Line
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Whether you are buying or selling, believe it or not, it's good to wait in line....
Slouching Toward Resistance
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Remember "The Diamond in the Dow"? Well, now there's good news and bad news ......
Supporting Gold and the Greenback
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After making major bullish moves January and February respectively, both the dollar and gold find support....
The Top in the Japanese Government Bond
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The recent pullback in the JGB affords another opportunity for bears to get on board for another leg down....
The Nasdaq Bottom This Spring?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Technical reasons abound for another countertrend rally....
The "Other" Asia Bottoms
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As emerging markets step back into the light, Indian closed-end funds look to be climbing back onto the bright side....
Starbucks' Island Reversal
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Up 59% from the September lows, Starbucks looks filled to the brim....
The Diamond in the Dow
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Dow 30 is breaking out from a 16-day diamond. But is the break up or down?...
Rising Gold Price, Crouching Dollar?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Can you be bullish on gold and the dollar at the same time?...
Donchian Breakouts by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Donchian Breakouts by David Penn Buy strength and sell weakness with this simple yet effective breakout trading strategy. There may be as many different forms of the Donchian breakout as there are moving average crossover or pattern recognition strategies. This is not without good reason. As the authors of The Ultimate Trading Guide note, "Traders are always excited about leading-edge technology, but inevitably fall back on the classical approaches." Donchian breakout?oriented systems, in which trades are initiated when current prices exceed the high or low price of a given period, are chie...
1-2-3 Trend Reversals
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Catching a trend reversal can be as easy as 1-2-3....
Market Sentiment
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Take a sentimental journey through the world of contrarian investing....
Hi Ho, Silver! Reversal!
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Gold rally got you feeling left out? Try silver on for size....
Troublesome Tops for Bonds
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Both corporates and Treasuries look primed for corrections....
Two Takes on March Sugar's Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A 1-2-3 Reversal and a 2B test of top both suggest that the rally in sugar is over....
Cocoa Reversals
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Cocoa's year-long bull market hit a reversal in October. Has it hit another in November?...
Dow Reversal?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Broken trendlines and failed new high attempts suggest that the Dow Utilities, Industrials and Transports remain under pressure....
Triangle Trouble for Wheat Futures
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A descending triangle in December wheat may signal the break for which the bears have awaited ......
Websites For Traders: BearMarketCentral.com by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Websites For Traders: BearMarketCentral.com by David Penn BEARMARKETCENTRAL.COM For all the carnage wrought upon the financial markets after three years of equity losses, stock market bears remain a provincial lot. Sure, every now and then a cautious or negative remark from a well-known bear will appear in the mainstream press. But such opportunities for bears to make their case to the public at large remain relatively rare -- and often take place only in the wake of a terribly bad week in the market ("Here to join us is noted bear market guru Mr. Grizzly, who seems to be annoyingly satisfied...
Working Money: Revisiting The 4% Solution by David Penn
Market Bubbles
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...By now, few can deny the existence of a bubble bursting in the US equities market. But few agree on what comes next....
Connors' Undeniables And Candlestick Clarity
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Adding candlesticks and exchange-traded funds to Connors' Undeniables six-week reversal strategy makes trades both more rewarding and easier to spot....
The S&P 500's Other Head and Shoulders Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...An intraday look at the S&P 500 anticipates a near-term correction in the index's July-August advance....
Diamonds in the Intraday S&P 500
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Diamond continuation patterns act as distribution areas in declining trends....
Crude Oil's Ascending Triangle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Up from a November 2001 low of 19, crude oil has gained over 57%. Does an upside triangle breakout mean there's even higher ground ahead?...
Diamonds and the CRB
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A July diamond anticipates sizable moves in the commodities index. Will grains continue to gain?...
Elliott Wave and August Advances
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...There may still be room for a rally--if only before the next big ride down....
Waiting For The Fed by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Waiting For The Fed by David Penn How are monetary-based stock market timing models holding up in the Age of the Bear Market? One of the most powerful tools for analyzing the financial markets is an understanding of the Austrian School of economics. Whether the Austrian in question is Ludwig von Mises, Murray Rothbard, or any number of others, as author and hedge fund manager Mark Boucher wrote: "Once you understand [the essentials of Austrian economics], you will find it hard to believe that anyone could invest without [them] ? it is one of the easiest and simplest methodologies for improv...
Volatility
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Variation from the mean is the name of the game....
That '70s Show
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Do a little dance, make a little love. . . inflation is back in vogue....
Chart Pattern Failures
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...In this fable of two double bottoms, the moral is: wait for the breakout....
Relative Momentum Index
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Cocoa's up and sugar's down ... but how long will these trends remain in place?...
Herrick Payoff Index
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Precious metals are up year-to-date, but will silver, platinum or gold pay off in the end?...
Corrections and Commodities
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The recent retreat in the CRB Index has some commodities bulls worried. Should they be?...
Ease of Movement
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Buy when it is easier to buy, and sell when it is easier to sell....
Trends in Utilities
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...From new highs to countertrend reversals, there is more than one way to trade the utilities stocks....
Working Money: Forming A Dow Line by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Working Money: Forming A Dow Line by David Penn Whether you are buying or selling, believe it or not, it's good to wait in line. One of the most common aspects of chart reading, the notion of buying or selling breakouts from congestion, has its roots in Dow theory -- specifically, in the part of Dow theory that describes line formation. In this context, a "line" is an area in which prices neither advance nor decline by a significant amount over a given period. This period may last anywhere from a few weeks to several months, as the aggressiveness (or lack thereof) of buyers is met with equal...
Post-Breakout Patterns by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Post-Breakout Patterns by David Penn Look for these patterns to determine if breakouts continue. I n technical analysis, one of the benefits of focusing on chart patterns is that practice trains the eye to spot emerging chart patterns. This may enable a trader to take a position before an actual breakout occurs, thus increasing the profitability of a correct call. When chart patterns occur as part of an observable trend, the breakout (or breakdown, in the bearish case) can become a place to add to a position, or to place a protective stop. One of the biggest benefits to traders who study ch...
Product Review: ForexNews Charts & News by David Penn
Product Review: TCNet by David Penn
Product Review: The Futures Academy by David Penn
Quick-Scans: eASCTrend by David Penn
OptionStar SS by David Penn
Product Review: Prophet.Net by David Penn
Product Review: Option Evaluator by David Penn
Product Review: Track 'n Trade Pro by David Penn
Product Review: ErlangerQuote by David Penn
Product Review: OmniTrader 2002 by David Penn
Product Review: MarketWise by David Penn
Quick Scans: OptionBook 2.0 by David Penn
Visual Trader
Gaming Grows Up
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Some of the best news in technology may be coming from companies dedicated to just playing around....
Confirming Bear Markets
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...In a down market, the only question as important as "How low will we go?" is "Will we know when we're there?"...
Mutual Funds For The Not So Dumb - Eric Tyson
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...At first glance, Eric Tyson appears to know as much about finance as he does about, well, dummies. After all, in addition to being an award-winning personal finance journalist and guest on programs such as PBS's Night Business Report, CNBC, and NBC's Today show, Tyson is the author of Personal Finance For Dummies, Investing For Dummies, Home Buying For Dummies, Taxes For Dummies, and most recently, Mutual Funds For Dummies. A former management consultant to Fortune 500 financial service firms, Tyson is a successful securities investor with a degree in economics from Yale University a...
A Spring And Summer Not To Remember
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...No one can deny that the first year of the millennium has turned out to be less than spectacular for the markets. But is it typical? First, Staff Writer David Penn looks at the first half and its lack of memorable activity, and speculates what kind of a second half could save the markets from a historic second downturn year in a row. Then he examines whether the lack of a summer rally is really all that notable....
SBC's Head and Shoulders Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...SBC Communications has been struggling to put in a bottom since falling from nearly 60 per share in November 2000 to under 40 by April 2001....
The Airlines' Complex Head and Shoulders Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The latest declines for the airlines industry are only a continuation of a miserable year, as the S&P Airlines Index makes plain....
Bull and Bear Market Crashes
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Do the market implosion of 1987 and the subsequent rally hold any lessons for investors in the current equity downturn?...
War and Capital
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...How do the capital markets react when the unthinkable strikes?...
Is Crude Ready to Move?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Could an upside breakout from an intermediate head and shoulders bottom put October crude above 30?...
Going After Opportunity
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Jay Sekelsky Of Mosaic Funds...
Buy American? What You Don't Know About Investing Overseas
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...According to Kornitzer Capital Management's Tom Laming, some of the best international investments come from US companies. Confused? Read on....
Energy Stocks Power Up
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With the DJU testing post-WTC attack lows, a number of energy stocks are working their way upward....
The Canadian Dollar's Complex Head and Shoulders Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Even on an intermediate basis, chart patterns often hold form....
January Lumber's Diamond Continuation
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Tops and bottoms notwithstanding, a diamond in a trend often suggests more of the same....
The December Dollar's Diamond Bottom: Pullback or Failure?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...What started as a diamond bottom reversal has begun to retrace as quickly as it broke out....
Bear Market Rallies and their Discontents
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ..."It's just an oversold rally ... a bear market rally is all ..."...
Bad News for Bonds?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With the 10-year Treasury headed toward historic resistance, is the bond party over?...
Working Money: Can Beta Help You Battle Volatility? by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Working Money: Can Beta Help You Battle Volatility? by David Penn Of all the enemies of capital appreciation, stock price volatility is one of the most immediate. Can beta help you know when your stock or portfolio volatility is out of control? Traditionally, stock investors have looked at two different but related forms of risk: systematic (or market) and unsystematic (or company-specific). Systematic risk is the risk of investing in the stock market in the first place, as opposed to putting your money in a return guaranteed investment such as a money market fund or certificate of deposit. ...
Working Money: Interview: William J. O'Neil by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Working Money: Interview: William J. O'Neil by David Penn The name rings a bell, but you're not sure why. You may only be vaguely familiar with the name, but you've certainly heard of, if not actually read, the product for which he is perhaps best known. William O'Neil, the founder of Investor's Business Daily (originally Investor's Daily until 1988) and chairman of William O'Neil & Co., Inc., a leading institutional investment research and brokerage firm, is one of the most clear-eyed and perceptive observers of the stock market today. His CAN SLIM approach to finding winning stocks enabled ...
The Hot War Bear
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Crash of 1929 and the Great Depression initiated the first secular bear market of the 20th century. Do those events hold any lessons for investors in the 21st?...
2001: A Stock Odyssey
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Looking back on a year no one, in or out of the stock market, will ever forget. Plus: what bonds can tell you about stocks....
An Autumn Of Infamy
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A catastrophic terrorist attack on the United States sets the stage for a not entirely unexpected stock market collapse....
The Cold War Bear
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The bear market of 1962-82 kept the Dow Jones Industrial Average pinned in the triple digits for a generation of stock investors....
Pork Bellies' Flag
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Like a number of agricultural commodities, pork bellies are rallying from lows not seen since the beginning of the year....
Gold's Glitter Gone
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A head and shoulders top threatens to send gold toward a test of multi-year lows....
Cattle's Diamond Continuation
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A big volume breakdown in live cattle futures turns a consolidation into a bearish continuation....
The Euro's Head and Shoulders Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The most recent rally in the common currency has stalled short of the August and September highs....
Working Money: Interview: Laura Granger by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Working Money: Interview: Laura Granger by David Penn How The Small Survive Laura Granger Of Oppenheimer Emerging Growth Fund When the going gets tough, do the small get growing? That's how Laura Granger, portfolio manager of OppenheimerFunds' new Emerging Growth Fund, sees it. At the helm of the fund since October 2000, Granger has parlayed her success in turning around underperforming mutual funds (she helped bring the Fortis Capital Appreciation Fund from the bleachers to the luxury boxes during the late 1990s) into some winning stockpicks for her emerging growth fund, including companie...
Can You Profit From The Energy Crisis?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...From telecommunications to electric power, deregulation in the utilities industry is opening up a wealth of opportunities - and challenges - for retail investors....
Looking For Intrinsic Value - Clyde McGregor of Oakmark Funds
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As a portfolio manager for Harris Associates, LP, a Chicago-based investment management firm that serves as advisor to the Oakmark Family of funds, Clyde McGregor searches for stocks trading below intrinsic value for the funds he oversees.McGregor was an analyst and portfolio manager with The Northern Trust Co. before joining Harris Associates as an analyst in 1981. He began managing portfolios in 1986. Currently, McGregor manages separate accounts for high-net-worth individuals, charitable foundations, and profit-sharing plans, as well as the Oakmark Equity and Income fund and the Oakmark Sma...
Is The Bottom Near? - Mike Byrum Of Rydex Funds
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Is the market bottom near? That's one of the questions we asked Mike Byrum, chairman of the Rydex Investment Strategy Committee, which oversees investment activity for all Rydex Funds. He is also the portfolio manager for the Rydex OTC Fund. Byrum was part of the original Rydex investment team when the company was founded in July 1993, and since then he has played an instrumental role in product development and investment strategy. He was named vice president of portfolio in 1998 and was the first to manage the US Government Money Market, Precious Metals, US Government Bond, Ursa, OTC, Ju...
From Baby Bells To Telcos
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...In a competitive market, only the strong survive. Soon we'll be able to separate the pretenders from the contenders in telecommunications....
Onward, Online Banking
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The threat of more and more bank mergers and the rise of click-and-mortar financial institutions have online banks focusing on what they do best: speedy, convenient savings, loan service, and some of the best yield rates available anywhere....
Biotech To The Future!
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With gene-based medicines, tissue regeneration, and cutting-edge treatments for cancer and HIV, biotechnology promises a revolution in medicine. Are there opportunities for investors as well?...
Microsoft's Ugly Head and Shoulders Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...You don't have to call it a head and shoulders bottom. But this bottoming movement in Microsoft may boost the Software King to 80 or more....
Going Up: The Triangle Of Research Frontiers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After reaching a high of 40 at the beginning of 2000, Research Frontiers trended to a low of 11.25 by March 2001. Since then, the stock has almost tripled and there may be more upside to come....
Volume Rules: CACI International's Spring Climb
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As CACI International advances from 28 to 43 in less than two months, CACI longs celebrate the benevolent dictatorship of volume....
Joltin' Jones Apparel's Ascending Triangle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After breaking out of a three-month consolidation range, Jones Apparel gained 12% before parking in the mid 40s. Fortunately for JNY longs, the stocks parked in an ascending triangle....
Microsoft's Meaningful Correction
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Shares of the tech bellwether have consolidated after an April rally and now a correction looms. Is that just what the Microsoft bulls have been waiting for?...
Fifth Third Bancorp's Ascending Triangle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...An ascending triangle interrupts a year's worth of advances. Will further bullishness follow?...
Nasdaq's Technical Knockout
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Declining prices meet rising volume in a winner-take-all prizefight in May....
Return of the Diamond
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Remember the two-year diamond top hovering over the Dow Jones Industrial Average that peaked in November 1999? The bears do....
QQQs 24-Hour Head and Shoulders Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Whether you're looking at a weekly chart or a five-minute chart, a head and shoulders top spells trouble for the bulls....
Squandering Aimlessly With David Brancaccio
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The host of public radio's "Marketplace" wrote a book on what you would do if you came into money. What would you learn?...
Cracking Open Your Nest Egg
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...You've earned it. You've saved it. You've invested it. Now that you're retired, what do you do with it?...
Small Caps: Growing Value And Valuing Growth
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With the Nasdaq reeling and the economy teetering on the edge of a recession, why would anyone be interested in small-cap stocks and mutual funds? Growth, for one thing. Value, for another....
Greg McBride Of Bankrate.com
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Bankrate.com financial analyst Greg McBride provides analysis and commentary on banking and consumer finance trends. A member of the research department of Bankrate.com, he has hands-on access to nationwide research on 100 products from 130 markets, covering all 50 states as well as the District of Columbia. He is heavily involved in the semi-annual Bankrate.com Checking Account Pricing Study and closely monitors trends in banking and personal finance.During his tenure at Bankrate.com, McBride has been a frequent contributor to articles in major publications such as The Wall Street Journal, Th...
Tom Laming Of Buffalo Funds
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Tom Laming is senior vice president and portfolio manager with Kornitzer Capital Management, Inc., a research-driven firm that manages $1 billion in assets, including the Buffalo and AFBA Five Star family of mutual funds. Laming, who joined the firm in 1993, was previously a spacecraft engineer with TRW, Inc., and Martin Marietta, as well as a technology analyst with Waddell & Reed.Laming has been lead manager of the Buffalo Equity and the Buffalo USA Global funds since their inception in 1995 and lead manager of the AFBA Five Star Equity and the AFBA Five Star usa Global Funds since 1997....
Are You Ready For Reits?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Could putting your money in real estate investment trusts meet your long-term investment needs?...
Charles Rinaldi Of Strong Capital Management
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Charles Rinaldi joined Strong Capital Management, Inc., in November 1997 as the head of the firm's small-cap value equity product. Previously, he was senior vice president and portfolio manager at Mutual of America Capital Management Corp. from November 1989. Prior to that, he was a portfolio manager at Glickenhaus & Co., Lehman Management Co., Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder, and Gintel & Co., and was a security analyst for 10 years at Merrill Lynch Capital Markets. Rinaldi received his master's degree in business administration with high distinction in 1970 from Babson Colleg...
How Soon Is Now?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Up to your ears in credit debt? Try timing your debt down to size....
Merck: Trends in Trends
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...What do you do when a stock is caught between an intermediate rally failure and a sustaining long-term bull trend?...
HCA's Diamond Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Nothing lasts forever ... not even the year-long advance of healthcare stocks....
Russell Corporation's Double Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Following the business cycle and focusing on top sectors helped uncover Russell Corporation's rebound from lows not seen since 1987....
Veritas' Double Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Getting nailed by long tech positions in a Nasdaq nearing 2000? The double top in Veritas Software may help put a hedge between you and the hammer....
Digene's Cup With Handle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A correction from Digene's April rally looks to have helped complete a bullish cup with handle in DIGE....
Base-Building with Lowes
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Home improvement store Lowes built the base and provided the breakout. Will a brief correction pave the way to new highs?...
VIX for Victory
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Neither oscillator nor indicator, the CBOE's Market Volatility Index or VIX depicts the mood of the marketplace....
Lennar's Head and Shoulders Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...High volume on the left shoulder of this topping formation adds to a bearish picture for this downwardly sloping H&S top....
Heads, Shoulders and QQQs
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Everyone's been talking about the head and shoulders pattern at the top of the April rally. But if everyone's waiting for the same breakout, will it still take place?...
Triangles in Uptrends
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The ascending triangle in TSG is part consolidation, part top end of a two-month trend....
IGT: Some Support is Bigger Than Others
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Will a support area hold? It depends on how much it matters to the buyers....
Earnings and Cash Flow: Watching What Matters
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Price-to-earnings and price-to-cash flow are among the most common ways to measure a company's health. What are these ratios and how can you use them to invest in the best companies?...
He Knows Investors' Business, Daily: William J. O'Neil
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The name rings a bell, but you're not sure why. You may only be vaguely familiar with the name, but you've certainly heard of, if not actually read, the product for which he is perhaps best known. William O'Neil, the founder of Investor's Business Daily (originally Investor's Daily until 1988) and chairman of William O'Neil + Co., Inc., a leading institutional investment research and brokerage firm, is one of the most clear-eyed and perceptive observers of the stock market today. His CAN SLIM approach to finding winning stocks (see sidebar) enabled O'Neil to ...
Can Beta Help You Battle Volatility?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Of all the enemies of capital appreciation, stock price volatility is one of the most immediate. Can beta help you know when your stock or portfolio volatility is out of control?...
A Bond and its Head and Shoulders Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Is the 30-year bond the most bullish buy around?...
Transports' Baby, Industrials Maybe
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Does old-fashioned Dow Theory anticipate a test of the May highs for the Dow Industrials?...
Regions Financial's Ascending Triangle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...RGBK looks to finish off a bullish rounding bottom with an even more bullish ascending triangle....
Downey Financial's Cup and Handle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Another small cap financial company looks to ride the bull....
Electronics for Imaging's Head and Shoulders Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ..."E" may stand for effort. But shares of Electronics for Imaging, Inc. (EFII) have corrected sharply after three attempts to close above 30....
The Summer Rally This Fall
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Nothing could be finer than a head and shoulders bottom in the SPDRs ......
Rising Toward Resistance
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...In spite of the Airlines Index's three-day rally to end the first half of the year, the sector is not yet cleared for take-off....
The Itsy Bitsy SPDRs and the Year-long Decline
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With the April rally gone (but not forgotten), will the June correction mark the beginning of the end of the year-long decline?...
Cassandra Toroian Of Financialmuse.com
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Cassandra Toroian is president and chief executive officer of Financialmuse.com, an online bank, brokerage, and educational resource designed for women. She developed the idea for Financialmuse.com after recognizing that women need to learn more about finances and investing, and to be guided toward actually doing something with that education once they get it. Before Toroian started Financialmuse.com, she was a sell-side analyst at Ryan Beck & Co. and Emerald Asset Management, specializing in small- and mid-cap banks. There, she was frequently sought as an expert on bank stocks by publicat...
John Roberts Of Barclays Global Investors
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Barclays Global Investors' iShares are among the newest exchange traded funds (ETFs) in the investing marketplace. ETFS, which are index mutual funds, can be bought and sold just like common stock and are traded on the American Stock Exchange along with Standard & Poor's depositary receipts (SPDRs), diamonds, and QQQs, among other exchange traded funds. iShares -- the "i" in which stands for "index" -- are offered through Barclays Global Investors (BGI), a leading index fund provider and the company that introduced World Equity Benchmark Sh...
Easing Into Exchange Traded Funds
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stock "baskets" and exchange traded funds are the new investment vehicles on the block. Can they help you meet your investment goals?...
The Web World In Your Hands
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Bigger than a Palm but smaller than a laptop, web pads and tablets combine portability with multifunctionality to offer computer users the best of both worlds....
Reduce Your Risk Of Buying High
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Dollar cost averaging is one way to make sure you're not getting into the market at too high a price....
IBM's Island Reversals
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As Big Blue rebounds from lows not seen since 1999, the bears are the ones being voted off this island....
Qwest's Descending Wedge
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Finishing off 2000 on an intermediate downtrend, Qwest's 2001 rally looks like it might have legs....
American Express' Rounding Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The rounding top in American Express has taken almost all of 2000 to develop. Will the upside breakout be worth the wait?...
Money Flow and the Comeback of Light Crude
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After a descent in late November, February light crude has begun climbing . . . again....
April Heating Oil's Head and Shoulders Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...April heating oil has formed a characteristic pattern as it beats a hasty retreat from its October 2000 peak....
Wal-Mart and the Great Retail Recovery
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Maybe "great" is a little much. But Wal-Mart is rallying alongside its retail brethern and taking advantage of the new interest rate environment....
Games Investors Play
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Investing in stocks and mutual funds is serious business. But two companies have turned the rough-and-tumble world of stock trading and money management into two exciting (and educational) new board games, Mutual Mania and Take Stock....
Goldman Sachs' HUGE Head and Shoulders Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The developing head and shoulders top in Goldman Sachs might not complete itself until the spring of 2001. But a downside breakout could send share prices plummeting to levels not seen since 1999....
Business Objects' Bump 'n' Run Reversal
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Up 80% after falling to 52-week lows, Business Objects' American Depositary Receipts may have more room to run....
Silver's Overbought Pennant
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A series of bullish sessions took COMEX silver on a 30 cent per ounce ride in January. Was an overbought relative strength index reason to worry?...
Value vs. Growth 2001
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Value season? Growth season? In 2001, it was hard to tell the difference. Plus: Will gold glitter once again?...
Confirming Averages
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...What happens when the Dow industrials go where the transports fear to tread?...
The Rally That Was
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Intermediate top patterns suggest declines are nearer than further advances....
Amazon's Ascending Triangle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A double bottom plus an ascending triangle may equal a 170% rally from the September 17th lows....
Eastman Kodak's Rising Wedge
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Shares of Eastman Kodak fell from a September flag to year-to-date lows. Now, a rising wedge threatens to send them back....
Compaq's Double Bottom Breakout
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After a brutal, year long, 80% decline and an all-but-aborted merger with Hewlett-Packard, shares of Compaq look to rebound on their own....
Top Dollar?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As the greenback retreats from highs not seen since the mid-eighties, should stock investors be concerned?...
Working Money: Confirming Bear Markets by David Penn
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Working Money: Confirming Bear Markets by David Penn In a down market,the only question as important as "How low will we go?" is "Will we know when we're there?" While many technical analysts have relegated Dow theory to that same attic in which the old tickertape machines are stashed, the underlying premise of this approach toward the stock markets, now more than 75 years old, remains both valid and potent. In fact, Dow theory can be an effective intellectual haven from the "24/7, 365" barrage of information, financial and market news reports, and analysis. Although it is true that intraday...
Attention, Students! Lighten Your Loan Load!
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Still paying off those student loans? Rates for refinancing student debt through loan consolidation are at historic lows. Here's how you can do it, too....
Avoiding The Alternative Minimum Tax
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...How did a plan to make the rich pay their fair share of taxes turn into a nightmare for average investors?...
How The Small Survive - Laura Granger Of Oppenheimer Emerging Growth Fund
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...When the going gets tough, do the small get growing? That's how Laura Granger, portfolio manager of OppenheimerFunds' new Emerging Growth Fund, sees it. At the helm of the fund since October 2000, Granger has parlayed her success in turning around underperforming mutual funds (she helped bring the Fortis Capital Appreciation Fund from the bleachers to the luxury boxes during the late 1990s) into some winning stockpicks for her emerging growth fund, including companies such as THQ and Career Education Corp. A "bottom-up" stock selector who uses quantitative, technical, and q...
Bonds and Stock Market Bottoms
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Will a test of the spring highs for the 10-year Treasury also help establish a bottom in the S&P?...
InfoSys Searches for a Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After plunging from 115 to less than 55 in three months at the beginning of the year, shares of InfoSys are still trying to find a bottom. The developing descending triangle may help....
Procter and Gamble's Double Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After spending much of 2000 on the canvas, Procter and Gamble has spent much of 2001 fighting back....
The Dow's Descending Triangle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Repeated summer tests of support at 102 may signal a breakdown dead ahead in the Dow....
Power to the Paper
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With the S&P Paper/Forest Products sector index coming off of a three-year low, more than a few paper products companies are having excellent years....
Federated's Double Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Gapping down past a confirmation level, shares of Federated Department Stores may become the victims of an early spring/early summer double top....
Twenty-first Century Bear
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Believe it or not, but the first bear market of the 21st century is clawing along according to plan....
The Taking of Time Warner TLC
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A descending triangle follows an intermediate head and shoulders top as the bears drag Time Warner Telecom down....
Hewlett-Packard's Descending Triangle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...May bulls become August bears as HWP looks to break out on the downside from this continuation formation....
Univision's Intermediate Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Cabeza y hombros? Call it what you will, but an intermediate head and shoulders top could anticipate a test of year-to-date lows for Univision Communications....
Tom Morabito of Principal Capital
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Tom Morabito joined Invista Capital Management, an affiliate of Principal Capital, in early 2000 as the lead small-cap value portfolio manager. Previously, he managed the Structured Small Cap Fund for Invesco Management & Research. Morabito, who received his master's in business administration (MBA) in finance from Northeastern University and his bachelor's degree in economics from State University of New York (SUNY), has more than 12 years of analytic and portfolio management expertise. He is a Chartered Financial Analyst and a member of the Association for Investment Management...
Putting The Top Down On Convertibles
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As bonds or stocks, convertible securities can provide investors with the security of fixed income or the growth of equities. Can they work for you?...
The IRA After Your IRA: The Roth Conversion
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...If you've ever wished the benefits of individual retirement accounts could continue after you've retired, then the Roth IRA may be for you!...
Robert von Pentz of Quant Funds
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Robert von Pentz, portfolio manager of the Quant Mid Cap Fund, is a member of Columbia Partners and is responsible for all equity investment activities there. Before he joined Columbia Partners, von Pentz served as chairman of the board and chief investment officer of Riggs Investment Management Corporation (RIMCO). He has also held the positions of vice president and director of equity research for Maryland National Bank. At the Quant Mid Cap Fund, he specializes in adding stocks to his fund that aren't too big and aren't too small and he works to make sure that the stocks aren&apos...
Rallies and Their Discontents
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Easter Week rally has reclaimed 41% of the spring decline. But the trend is still down....
The 10-Year Treasury's Head and Shoulders Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...There may be more to trade than the downside breakout when it comes to head and shoulders tops....
Make it a Blockbuster 2001 ... So Far
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Shares of Blockbuster have almost doubled since the beginning of the year. Will the trend stay friendly?...
Futuresweb.com by David Penn
Product Review: Interactive Brokers by David Penn
Product Review: FastTrack For The Web by David Penn
Product Review: MetaStock for Windows 7.03 by David Penn
Product Review: NeuroShell Trader by David Penn
Product Review: Bollinger On Volume Indicators by David Penn
Natural Gas Bulls and Bears
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Sometimes the only thing worse than contrary indicators are contrary adages....
Consolidations and Corrections
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Breaking out of a six week consolidation pattern, the December 2000 Treasury bond rose three points to a 52-week high just over 101. But a September correction has taken the long bond beneath its short-term moving averages, all but erasing a month's worth of gains....
Shibboleths and Sympathy Stocks
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Comparing the performance of Cisco Systems and Juniper Networks for much of 2000 suggests that number two is not always second place....
Crude's Rude Bull Mood
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...When did YOU think crude was going to hit a top? If the December crude has anything to say about it, the answer just might be: not anytime soon....
Trading Retracement
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Use Fibonacci numbers to help figure out when the market has given back too much. Or not enough....
Target Takes a Time Out
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After spending most of 1999 in a trading range, Target finally seems to have made up its mind. Next stop: down....
Is It "Now Time" For Nokia?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Moving averages, envelopes and more moving averages provide questions, answers and more questions....
Parabolic Stop and Reverse: The Other Way of Stopping
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A creation of the futures markets, the parabolic stop and reverse helps traders get out (or in) while the getting is good....
Bull Spreads
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Here's an introduction to an options strategy geared toward making the most of a minor bull market....
Band Of The Handheld PCs
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...You can take notes! You can play games! You can access the Internet! You can get your E-mail -- and you can even be fashionable as you do it all. The newest offerings represent the bargains, best buys, and things to come in the growing market for handheld personal computers....
Managing Your Investments
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...You're ready to invest. But are you ready to manage your investments? Here's a primer on some of the issues to consider when you're deciding who will manage your money....
Wither Wheat?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A pair of four-month long trading ranges have characterized the December wheat contract for most of 2000. Is a breakout likely here at the bottom?...
Plotting Platinum
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Prices in the precious metal tested historic highs at the beginning of September. Will a retreat follow?...
Going After the Gap
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Moving averages, money flow and relative strength suggest that Procter and Gamble may be picking itself up from the canvas after being knocked down in March....
Cuckoo for Cocoa?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A rally in December cocoa brought prices to the top side of a two-month trading range. But can the bulls bring cocoa out of the basement?...
Will the Franc Fly Further?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After dropping from 62 cents per dollar to just under 56 cents, the Swiss franc has rallied 5%. Mere correction? Or shades of greater things to come in European currencies?...
Samuel Eisenstadt Of Value Line
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...For more than 50 years, Samuel Eisenstadt has been one of the major reasons for the phenomenal success of Value Line, Inc., developers of the Value Line Ranking System. Eisenstadt is research chairman, senior vice president, and a director of the company, and his primary areas of responsibility include the application of various quantitative methods to securities valuation and forecasting. A frequent lecturer on Value Line techniques to business school audiences and financial analyst societies, Eisenstadt has successfully debated prominent efficient market proponents and was a pioneer in chall...
Download The Noise! Download The Funk!
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Napster or no, the MP3 revolution is still giving computer-savvy music lovers reason to rejoice. And with any one of these four portable MP3 players, you won't have to leave your tunes behind when you hit the road, Jack....
The 411 On 911 Funds
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Protect your standard of living and pave the way for your investment plan. How? Set up an emergency fund using staggered certificates of deposit....
Technical Analysis For The Masses
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...From charts and breakouts to trends and moving averages, technical analysis offers average investors a window looking onto Wall Street....
Money Flow: Will Cardinal Health Catch Cold?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Cardinal Health has been among the most consistent performers this year. But how many more new highs does Cardinal Health have left?...
Theory, Damned Theory and Dow Theory
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The September divergence between the Dow's industrial and transportation averages anticipated the October downturns....
December Cotton's Flag
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...December cotton peaked in late August at about 67 cents, and then formed a flag between 66 and 64 in November. The initial breakout was bearish. Will the bulls respond?...
Stop and Reverse: Lumber's Long Slide
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After oscillating through a five-month consolidation between 325 and 360, lumber broke through the bottom of its range, losing 38% on its way to a low of 200. In spite of the occassional one-day rally, lumber is still falling....
The Euro's Broadening Wedge, Descending
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The euro's persistent downtrend has been made interesting by the European Central Bank's efforts at intervention. But are we going up or down?...
Talbots: Bollinger Band Busting
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Some of Talbots' most dramatic price movement in the second half of 2000 has come as part of bullish gaps. But could the current price climb be one gap too many?...
December Coffee: A Case of False Breakout
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After spending the past two months trading in a range between 78 and 85, December coffee experienced a brief upside breakout that led to a dramatic reversal and new 52-week lows....
Low-Flying Aflac and Relative Strength
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Shares of Aflac Incorporated have managed to advance over 50% since July without suffering dramatic overbought reversals....
Chubb: Volume, Price and Money Flow
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Has the summer buying interest in Chubb Corporation returned as a search for sturdy autumn shelter?...
Sears: Anatomy Of A Double Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...At a low during a major bear trend, Dow standby Sears and Roebuck [S] rallied from an intermediate trend double bottom to reach highs of nearly $44 in late April 2000. But a selling climax and weak rally have caught Sears between either a major upside reversal or a resumption of the stock's three-year decline as the market moves toward the fall....
Starbucks: Peaks And Troughs In Trends
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Last time, we took a look at the growing horizontal formation for Starbucks [SBUX] through June 2000 and into the first half of July. The present review of the stock's primary and intermediate trends suggests that Starbucks may test recent highs of 45 1/4 in August....
Starbucks: Figure Charting For Price Support
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Starbucks (NYSE: SBUX) looks well-positioned to test record highs in the neighborhood of 45 1/4 given its intermediate price momentum since May. A solid 10-day horizontal formation in the 39/40 area represents the early stages of a consolidation area that could be the springboard for a further climb....
Put Options As A Hedge Against The Bear
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Many traders buy put options to hedge their positions against declining prices. Unlike short sellers, buyers of put options can limit losses more effectively, insofar as the put option buyer risks only the premium, the price of the option contract....
Planes, Trains and Right-angled Ascending Broadening Formations
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A bearish triangle threatens reversals for the Dow Jones Transportation Average....
Caterpillar: Earth Moving and Money Flow
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Long on the outside looking in, shares of Caterpillar are rallying from 52-week lows....
Intel Downside: Chipzilla Meets the Descending Triangle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After gapping down five points in September, shares of Intel moved into a two-month trading range. Now a descending triangle threatens to send the king of the chipmakers on another ride down....
The Nikkei Nosedive
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Dropping beneath a four-month trendline and its 50-day moving average, the Nikkei 225 Index just keeps falling, and falling, and falling . . ....
Revenge of the Euro: A Head and Shoulders Bottom
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Will the "since-inception" euro bear market end with a H&S bottom?...
E2K and Ascending Triangles
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Is the unease surrounding the 2000 presidential election a good thing for the Dow Jones Utilities Average?...
Nasdaq Retracement: Three Not-so-easy Steps
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Looking for a Bush rally? A year-end rally? It's going to take a major retracement to make the dreams of Nasdaq bulls come true....
The Dollar and the Deep Blue Sea
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Relative strength and moving averages suggest that the mighty U.S. dollar may be on the verge of sinking....
The Dow's Diamond Top
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Nearly 20 months in the making, a diamond top towers over the Dow Jones Industrial Average....
Whirlpool and the Relative Strength Index
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Three successively higher peaks don't mean a thing when the relative strength index has a failure swing . . . Here is a tale of two trends....
Bollinger Bands For Support And Resistance
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Prices that move beyond Bollinger bands often do so at their own peril as this look at Hormel suggests....
Mad About MU's MACD
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...All the world's a trend and we are merely traders ... a look at the ascent of Micron Technologies through the eyes of the MACD....
TGEN's Bullish Breakaway Gap
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...There are gaps and there are breakouts. But a breakaway gap can be something to be bullish about....
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