Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES
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Article Archive For Mike Carr, CMT
DownloadTurning Market Observations Into Trading Strategies
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Traders are looking for ways to forecast the future from the recent past. Some successful traders develop trading rules based on what they see in the markets....
Index Divergences Pointing To Potential Market Drop
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Broad market indexes are weaker than the headline indexes, a condition that has preceded market declines in the past....
Recession Warning From Technical Analysis
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Technicians usually analyze price moves to trade stocks and other securities. However, they can also apply their skills to economic analysis....
Simple Strategy With 80% Winners
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Traders often look for complex strategies but simple could be profitable, and this simple idea points to further gains in stocks....
Election Cycle Bearish For Stocks And Bonds In The Short Term
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...There is a well-documented cycle in markets related to Presidential elections. This pattern suggests stock and bond market weakness in the short term....
Overbought Stock Market Doesn't Mean Sell
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Traders often assume overbought markets are ready to decline, but as the S&P 500 has shown in 2012, markets can stay overbought for extended periods....
S&P 500 Could Set New Highs By Summer
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks climb a wall of worry, and the bears could be providing enough worries to drive stocks to all-time highs....
Spotting Turns In Long-Term Trends
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Relative strength and the concepts behind this strategy offer insights into how to spot potentially big winners....
Combine MACD And Relative Strength To Time Trades
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Relative strength is a powerful trading tool, but its signals can be difficult to interpret. Applying indicators to relative strength can help....
George Soros: Closet Technician?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The investing legend is in the news discussing the euro. Traders can study his past success for valuable insights....
Seasonality Is Strong In Some Markets
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Seasonal tendencies can help deliver profits in some markets, help preserve profits in others, and even illustrate the "Sell in May" rule for stocks....
Simple Strategy Says To Buy The Dollar
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...While the direction of a trend can be dictated by difficult-to-understand economic concepts, there is a simple trend-following strategy that works and doesn't require any complex knowledge of economics....
Stock Market Forecasts Giants Super Bowl Win
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...While many look to the Super Bowl as a market indicator, we can also use the market to predict the winner of the game....
Stocks At Resistance
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Value Line Geometric Index show that stocks could deliver large gains in the months ahead....
Adams Golf Starts The Year With Strong Gains
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...This company gained about 20% in the first 10 trading days of 2012 and could be a buy even after that gain....
Crude Likely To Stay In Trading Range
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Crude oil is likely to extend its three-year trading range, which forecasts a short-term drop in the price....
Potential Winners For 2012
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Based on characteristics of past stock market winners, we can find stocks that appear to be set up for gains in the year ahead....
Long-Term Perspective On The S&P 500
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Traders often focus on short-term charts but could benefit from looking at weekly and even monthly charts to identify the long-term trend....
Adding Stochastics To Indicators
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The stochastics indicator is usually applied to closing price data but it can be calculated using indicators such as the relative strength index, making those indicators more valuable in many cases....
Platinum Could Be The Strongest Metal
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Platinum is undervalued on a fundamental basis and is a buy on a technical basis....
Value Line Index Points To Broad Market Gains
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Value Line Index offers a useful way to monitor market breadth and confirm the major trends....
RSI Can Be Improved
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Many indicators were developed years ago, long before computers allowed for backtesting. Recently, a new form of the relative strength index was introduced, and testing shows it has improved on the older version....
Finding The Next Corn Trade
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Corn has been the trade of the summer, and now there are related markets that look ready to follow....
Long-Term Cycles Offer Short-Term Warnings For Stocks
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Cycles point to a correction and then strong gains in stock prices through the end of the year....
Could You Have Spotted Vringo Before Its Jump?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Vringo caught the attention of traders when Mark Cuban announced he bought 7.4% of the company. The chart showed traders could have been in before the news....
Large Caps For Short-Term Trading
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Volatile tech stocks are usually considered as favorites among short-term traders. Large caps could also be considered as trading candidates....
Crude Oil Set To Fall
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With fears of Iran receding to the back of newspapers, the risk premium in oil could drop and the trend seems to be changing directions....
Gas Prices Finally Set Up For A Fall
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After a gain of almost 30% in three months, gas futures finally look like they are a short....
The Dollar Points To Cheaper Gas
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Over the long term, the US dollar has shown a tendency to peak several months ahead of peaks in the price of unleaded gas futures....
Rising Tides Lift All Boats (And Sectors)
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After a strong run, the stock market looks toppy to some. However, by many measures this seems like the start of a new bull market....
Large Specs Selling To Commercials
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Several futures markets show a similar pattern of speculator selling being met by commercial buying....
Dollar Overbought, Euro Oversold
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The dollar index is heavily weighted to the euro, and both saw rapid moves after the Federal Reserve announced Operation Twist....
Volatility Shifts Among Markets
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Recently introduced indexes allow traders to easily spot the changes in sentiment visible in volatility....
Learning From Netflix
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Former high-flier Netflix fell sharply. Looking at the chart in hindsight, troubling signs were evident, and there are lessons we can apply in the future....
Small Caps Are Riskier Than Large Caps
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The current decline in stocks has hit smaller stocks more than larger ones....
Gasoline Futures Still Showing Pain Ahead For Consumers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Momentum is signaling higher pump prices as technical analysis points to slow, if any, economic growth....
Swiss Franc Fall Signaled By COT Data
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The weekly Commitment of Traders report provided by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission can sometimes be useful to help spot trading opportunities....
10-Year Rates Look Oversold
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Interest rates have fallen to historic lows and are now showing bubble-like extremes on the downside....
Was That A Bear Market?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Almost every stock decline of 5% leads to the question about whether a new bear market is under way. The steep drop in August prompts that question once again....
Netflix And Bottom Fishing
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Netflix has collapsed, but does that mean it is a buy?...
Realistic Expectations For AAPL
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Many traders think they can earn high rates of return trading stocks. That is actually a difficult task, but expectations of many buy & hold investors are also unrealistic....
Volatility Still Bullish
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Traders look for volatility to rise as markets fall, but profiting from that insight can be a challenge. Even if you don't trade volatility, you should still follow this reliable market indicator....
S&P 500 Momentum Is Bullish
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Rate of change in the S&P 500 shows strength in two time frames....
Oil Turns Bullish
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Higher oil prices would also be a signal that the economic recovery is still intact....
Value Line Index Bullish
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Martin Zweig wrote about the importance of the Value Line Index in the 1980s. It remains a useful indicator....
Netflix Demonstrates Value Of Technical Analysis
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The stock plummeted after the company changed its business model, but technicians could have avoided the worst of the decline....
Volatility With Prices And VIX
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stock market volatility is high, as we can see with a chart of the S&P 500 or with the volatility index....
Nikkei And NASDAQ: Two Bear Markets
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The stock market in Japan peaked in 1989 and is still down 80%. Could that happen to the NASDAQ?...
Treasuries Showing Signs Of Exhaustion
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With 10-year yields under 1.9%, Treasuries seem to offer little if any upside....
Stocks For The Long Term? Looking At Value Line
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Value Line Index shows that stocks have gone nowhere for 16 years, but traders have enjoyed sizable moves in both directions....
Does Buffett Use Technical Analysis?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Warren Buffett recently announced a large purchase of IBM. The chart shows he bought the stock on dips....
Berkshire Hathaway As One Of History's Biggest Winners
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Warren Buffett has built great wealth for himself and his investors with a buy & hold philosophy, and traders would be hard-pressed to keep up....
Six Months To Double
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...In the past six months, two stocks have provided triple-digit gains. Pizza Inn and Stamps.com have some traits in common. Let's take a look....
Hansen Natural Another 10-Bagger
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...HANS offers an example of one of the all-time great stocks with a gain of more than 17,000% in less than 10 years, an annual rate of return of more than 75%....
S&P 500 Holds Support
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Simple technical tools can help traders spot the trend....
Can You Spot A Ten-Bagger In Advance?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Analyst Peter Lynch noted the really big money comes from finding the biggest potential winners. Are there real-time tools that could help buy winners before they run higher?...
Tech And Small Cap Point Toward Lower Stock Market
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Bull markets are usually led higher by stocks in the NASDAQ and small-cap stocks. But not right now....
Did Gap Really Fall Because Of Cotton Prices?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The announcement from Gap may reveal more about the economy than the company....
Crude Oil Looks Bearish
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Rate of change is bearish for crude oil on monthly and daily charts....
S&P 500 Momentum Is Bearish
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Multiple time frame analysis points to lower stock prices....
Big Stock Drops. What Happens Next?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Testing inspired by silver's big plunge last week showed that futures are just as likely to drop further as they are to rebound after a crash. Testing in the stock market finds buying big drops works best in bear markets....
After The Big Drop, Is Silver A Buy?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Silver fell more than 20% last week, and bottom pickers must be wondering if it's due for a bounce. Testing says probably not....
After The Bubble, Cotton Offers A Lesson
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...While bulls and bears continue to debate the fate of silver, we can look at cotton to see what it looks like after the bubble bursts....
Projecting Price Targets
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Some chart patterns are commonly used to develop price targets. That same principle can help traders even when there isn't a clearly discernible pattern....
Lumber As A Trader's Dream
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Traders need volatility to make money, and lumber has been offering large price moves in short time frames....
Natural Gas Finally Moving Higher?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Locked in a downtrend since 2005, natural gas has bounced more than 15% higher in recent weeks....
Simple Coffee Trading System Beats The S&P 500
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Returns are never enough to determine whether a system idea is actually tradable....
Ten-Year Rates May Show Effect Of PIMCO's Selling
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...When one of the world's largest holders of an asset sells, there are bound to be signs in the market....
Commodity Prices Lead Stocks?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Many analysts believe that higher commodity prices affect stock prices, and sometimes they do....
As Markets Spike, So Does Volatility
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks and oil markets saw large price moves in the week of February 25, 2011, and volatility indexes tracking these markets also experienced large swings....
Gas Prices at the Pump Should Fall under $3.10
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Futures prices are directly related to the price consumers pay at the pump....
DJIA At Critical Support Level
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Dow Jones Industrial Average is near 12,000, a price level that has proven to be of unusual importance in the past....
Williams %R Offers Timely S&P 500 Trading Buys
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...This neglected indicator offers a profitable short-term trading strategy on the S&P 500....
Coal Slumping
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Coal has been a leader in this bull market but now it is showing signs of topping, along with the rest of the market....
Gas Hits Resistance
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The chart of gasoline shows an example of how downside gaps can offer resistance....
Down Five Weeks In A Row -- What's Next?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stock market indexes have fallen five weeks in a row. Backtesting can show if that is bullish or bearish....
Divergences Don't Always Work
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Traders know that nothing works 100% of the time, but market context can help avoid bad signals....
June Is A Bad Month For Stocks
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Traders fear September and October, months known for crashes, but June should also be feared....
Greek Bailout Smells Like QE
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Will stocks and the euro act the same as when the Fed undertook QE?...
Tech Stocks Leading Market
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Healthy bull markets in the past have been led higher by growth stocks in general and technology stocks in particular....
Volatility In The News, But Not The Market
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Large daily swings in the major stock market indexes seem to be grabbing headlines, but indicators show volatility is unusually low....
Dollar Poised To Move Up
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Markets climb a wall of worry, and few markets are more worrisome than the US dollar....
Do Fibs Work?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Fibonacci ratios have a mythical quality among many traders. Ten-year interest rates are a current example of Fibonacci retracements....
Mid-Caps Point To More Upside
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Healthy bull markets are usually led higher by mid-cap stocks....
Market Symmetry In Interest Rates?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As the bear market unfolded in 2008, interest rates on the 10-year Treasury note fell by about 50% in a little more than six months. A 40% decline in interest rates in 2010 looks similar, despite the different economic factors and vastly different economic environments....
Corn Jumped, And Could Go Higher
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The USDA crop report was bullish for corn and other grains, and corn futures rose almost 9.6% in a week....
Lumber's Historic Bear Market
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Lumber, which is widely followed as an economic indicator, reached its all-time lows that fulfilled major price pattern objectives in 2010....
Profits From Higher Gas Prices
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...According to some analysts, prices at the pump will certainly hit $4 a gallon in the coming year and may even top $5. The futures market is one way to benefit from such a rise....
Unleaded Gas Quietly Surging
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Oil has hit resistance levels near $90 a barrel, while unleaded gas futures have recently pushed through resistance but also faces challenges to a sustained bull run....
Bonds Bouncing Between Extremes
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Bond prices are in the news, a few weeks ago as a bubble and now as a crash. The rate of change indicator helps evaluate these claims....
Cotton Prints An Outside Reversal Day
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Price patterns tend to offer an incomplete picture of any market....
Speculators Notice Cotton
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Exchange margin requirements for cotton increased by a third, to $7,000 a contract. Raising margins is usually done to cool speculation....
Oil Has A VIX
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Equity traders have long used the volatility index to monitor the volatility of the market. Oil and gold have similar measures....
Looking At Oil For The Long Run
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Monthly charts can offer traders a different perspective....
Japanese Stock Market At Tradable Low
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Nikkei 225 index has been in a bear market since 1989, but there have been a number of trading opportunities....
Multiple Time Frame Analysis Makes A Bullish Case For S&P 500
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Traders should always consider multiple time frames in developing their market opinion....
Bullish Sentiment For NASDAQ 100
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Small speculators and commercials have very different opinions about the NASDAQ 100, and the divergence is bullish for stocks....
Similarities Between Then And Now? This Isn't 2008
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Many traders are looking for similarities between the current market and the precrash market of 2008. History says that the crash is probably over....
Market Leaders Making New Highs
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks like Hansen Natural and Sturm, Ruger & Co. have led the market to the upside and still show strength....
Charting Interest Rates
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Yields on the 10-year Treasury reached a new low and completed a double-bottom pattern on the chart. Projections from the pattern offer both good news and bad news....
Stocks Are Oversold
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Oversold doesn't always mean buy, but the daily chart gives traders some room for optimism....
Lumber Leading Housing Index Lower
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A longstanding correlation between lumber and home builder stocks points to lower prices for the builders....
Is This a Bear Market?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The recent decline in stock prices was deep, leading to the inevitable question of whether or not we're in a bear market. The answer depends upon the index and the time frame....
Stocks Half As Volatile Now As In Great Crashes
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The recent market turmoil feels like it is unprecedented in terms of volatility for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, but it's not even close to what traders experienced in 1987 or 1929....
Silver Continues Post-Bubble Behavior
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After reaching a bubble top near $50 an ounce in April, silver hasn't given the bulls anything to cheer about....
Gold Isn't In A Bubble, But It Is Overbought
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...While gold trading hasn't reached a bubbly high, it could be time for a pullback....
Summer Doldrums Hit Stocks
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The S&P 500 is in a narrow range, much as it was in the summer of 2007. But this time is different....
Learning From The Past With Silver
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Technical analysis is based on the idea that history tends to repeat itself and shows up as similar patterns in charts. Other commodities have acted like silver, and their charts may help navigate this current bubble....
Bubble Watch: Silver
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Recent action in silver makes the 1980 bubble top seem like rational exuberance....
Divergences In Stocks Starting To Appear
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Rate of change and sentiment are trending opposite to the price action of the S&P 500....
Gas Prices Nearing Record
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...At a recent level near $3.25 a gallon, the price of unleaded gas futures is within a small move of its all-time high....
Risk And Rewards
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...It's a common belief that taking a risk in the markets is rewarded with higher returns. Like many market beliefs, however, this one may not stand up to scrutiny....
Technicals Can Lead The News
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Relative strength warned investors that the outlook for Cisco might not have been as rosy as investors hoped....
S&P 500 Is Overbought
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After soaring about 18% in less than three months, the S&P 500 reached a relative price extreme. A pullback is expected....
Know Your ETF
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...While investors can use technical analysis to help spot breakouts and evaluate risk, they should still understand what they are investing in, as the Market Vectors Vietnam ETF demonstrates....
Are Bonds A Bubble?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Many news stories are saying that bonds are in a bubble, seemingly simply because many investors are buying them. Here's a subjective definition to answer the question....
Rate Of Change
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...This indicator is rarely used but can provide valuable insights....
Analyzing Cash
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...An exchange traded fund can be used to spot trends in cash and offer insight into investor sentiment....
Studying Indicators
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Sometimes indicators just don't work. Typically, it takes a little more than looking at a chart with the default settings of an indicator to be a successful trader....
Sugar's In The News
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With sugar near 28-year highs, many individual investors have their first opportunity to invest in the commodity directly....
Time To Buy Gold?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Traders seem obsessed with timing buys in gold. But there might be better investment opportunities in the metals that get overlooked....
Stock Indexes Showing Declining Momentum
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Russell 2000 is leading the way lower in momentum. This is a warning that price may follow....
Looking At Futures With Volume-Weighted MACD Histogram
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Combining volume with momentum is a tool used to spot trend changes in stocks that can be applied to futures markets as well....
Today's Technicals Write Tomorrow's Headlines
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Technical analysis often identifies trades weeks before significant news events....
A Problem With Sentiment
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...While we like to believe the crowd is always wrong, they are only wrong at extremes in the market, and these can usually only be identified in hindsight....
Don't Fight the Trend
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Every trader knows they shouldn't fight the trend but most seem to prefer trying to call tops and bottoms rather than profiting from the easy to spot trend....
Are Retail Stocks Signaling Tougher Times Ahead?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With the broad market still about 30% below its all-time highs, retailers are actually a little stronger and are only 25% off theirs....
Don't Always Take Investment Advice From The Radio
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The commercial advertisement says to buy natural gas now because it always goes up in the winter...but data shows that's only true for part of the winter....
Time To Buy Grains?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Corn is up almost 30% in the last two months and soybeans show gains of almost 15% in the past five weeks....
Simple Trendlines Say "Pay Attention"
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stock indexes are testing trendlines, and the result of that test is likely to be significant....
Consumer Confidence, Recessions, And Stocks
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Economic indicators can provide valuable clues about the future direction of the stock market....
Eight Straight Weeks
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...There is little historical precedent for the past two months of steady gains....
Using the Bullish Percent Index
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Trading success often comes from looking at indicators that others fail to consider. The bullish percent index (BPI) may have value because so few traders understand its importance....
Dow 6000?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Technical patterns indicate the next 1,000 points on the Dow Jones Industrial Average is more likely to be down than up....
Oil At A Short-Term Top?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The price of oil has risen dramatically this year, with analysts attributing much of the rise to geopolitical concerns. While unrest in Iran and terror attacks in Niger are likely to continue, traders seem to be less concerned about their impact on the supply of oil, and prices have backed off recent highs....
S&P 500 Near A Golden Cross
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Long-term moving averages are setting up a reliable buy signal on the S&P 500....
RSI Points Toward New Bull
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Monthly charts are rarely analyzed in today's daytrading environment, but monthly signals are rare and reliable....
Broad Market Bullish
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Using the Value Line index allows us to see how the broad market is doing, and right now, that is potentially bullish....
Overbought Doesn't Mean Sell
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stock markets appear to be overbought after the recent gains, but history tells us that could simply be pointing to more gains....
A Rectangle In The Broad Market
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Value Line Index is understudied but one of the broadest measures of the stock market. Right now, it seems to be breaking out of a rectangle....
Spotting Trends with RSI
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...In addition to providing buy and sell signals, RSI can highlight longer-term trends in the market....
Commitment Of Traders Report Turns Bullish
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Commercial traders have turned bullish on the S&P 500....
The Two Sigma Dow
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Standard deviations are a common tool used in financial analysis as a measurement of risk. It is the mathematical principle behind Bollinger bands, a widely used technical indicator....
Spotting Tomorrow's Leaders
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As the market trades near key support, relative strength can show us where to look for potential winners if the market turns higher....
Volatility Dominant Theme In Stocks
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The market may be setting up for a period of consolidation....
Can You Really Trade Economic News?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Government reports can move markets, but should they?...
Oversold Markets
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ..."Oversold" does not mean "Buy now."...
Dollar Heading Higher?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Momentum has shifted in the dollar and points to the next big move being up....
The Dollar And The Risk
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As usual, we want to look at things with different tools. The dollar will be the subject of our analysis today as we look at the volatility of its volatility....
Analyzing Crude Oil
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...We'll combine RSI, the rate of change indicator, and Bollinger bands in a different way to see if crude oil is likely to move up or down....
The Trend Is Your Friend
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Like most Wall Street wisdom, these words are commonly spoken but rarely defined....
Does China Lead The Way?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Many analysts claim that Chinese stocks lead the world markets at major turning points. The chart says that's true -- at least one time....
Sentiment Measures Require Context
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 50% of individual investors are now bullish. Is that a cause for concern?...
Healthy Markets Led By Growth Stocks
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Relative strength can help spot sustained bullish and bearish moves in stocks....
After A 3.5% One-Day Decline...
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Dow Jones Industrial Average is generally lower a week later....
After Six Up Weeks In A Row ...
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The broad market has been up six weeks in a row. We look at what happens after a run like that and discover it's bearish and bullish....
Finding Buys In A Bear Market
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As markets continue to plummet and volatility increases, stocks in tight trading ranges can offer safety and potential upside....
Is The 200-Day Moving Average A Reliable Trend Indicator?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With major averages facing resistance at their 200-day moving averages, we test the reliability of this indicator....
Technicals, Fundamentals, And A Discount To Value Make BCF A Buy
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Closed-end funds are an often-overlooked trading vehicle, despite the wealth of available fundamental data that can be used to lower risk....
EPAX Trading Range Provides Limited Risk
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks within narrow ranges represent great trading candidates, since the downside risk can be clearly defined....
Fibonacci Levels Show S&P 500 At A Turning Point
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The market is caught between Fibonacci support and resistance levels, with bulls and bears battling for control....
Demand May Overwhelm Supply of Deluxe
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Multiple indicators point to higher prices for Deluxe....
A Conservative Bet On Oil By Buying Russia
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...While OPEC economies are almost entirely dependent upon oil, Russia offers a way to profit from high oil prices with a margin of safety offered by a more diversified economy....
Fibonacci Levels Can Identify Support And Resistance
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Many floor traders look at these price points to take action, and screen traders can also benefit from this indicator....
Terex: An Inverted Head & Shoulders
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...This classic pattern reliably offers defined risk and profitable opportunities....
Small-Cap Growth Setting Up A Long Trade
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Small-cap growth stocks often lead the way higher after bear market declines....
Bottom Fishing With Technical Indicators
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Calling a bottom is always a risky bet. But a lot of technical indicators point to higher prices ahead for Steelcase....
Time To Short Avon
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...This stock shows signs of topping and presents a short opportunity to hedge long exposure in today's volatile markets....
Be Ready For The End Of The Recession
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With economists now predicting that the recession should be brief and shallow, traders may want to consider relative strength strategies to be ready to profit from the recovery....
Seasonal Trade: Diageo
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Market seasonals point to a promising trade in this beverage company....
Profiting From Gold
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...If gold continues higher, smaller mining companies offer superior potential....
Supply And Demand Always Drive Price
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Being added to the Standard & Poor's 500 while a large short interest exists creates demand and can drive prices higher....
AVTR: A REIT With Potential
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...If the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets, REITs are worth looking for a splash or two....
Are We Finally at a Bottom? SPY Buy Setup
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The DeMark sequential is set up to provide a potential buy signal in the SPY....
The Bullish Case For JP Morgan
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After stepping in to buy Bear Stearns, JP Morgan stands to profit if the worst is over....
Profiting From Volatile Markets With OOPS
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...This famous Larry Williams trade setup can be especially profitable when markets are making wide intraday swings....
XME: Long Or Short? Let The Market Decide
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After a nearly 50% rise in only five weeks, XME is either consolidating gains or breaking down....
Global Crossing: Support And Potential Demand Add Up To Buy
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Trading near support and just below the squeeze trigger price, Global Crossing may be ready to move significantly higher....
Buying 52-Week Lows
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With the S&P 500 hitting a new 52-week low, bears have the upper hand in market action....
Forex Trading With ETFs
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A limited number of ETFs offer new opportunities to stock traders....
Does RSI Work?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Well known but rarely tested, technical tools like the relative strength index can be profitable if used properly....
Technical Indicators Add Up To A Long For Korn/Ferry
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As layoffs mount, staffing companies can profit by helping to locate replacements for senior managers and offering consulting services to help with the changing corporate culture. That's what Korn/Ferry can do....
A Long Trade In A Declining Market
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Even as the market averages move into bear market territory, long trades can be found using technical trading strategies....
Dow Industrials Looking Bearish
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After breaking key support at 12,000, the next thousand-point move in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is more likely to be down than up....
Underfollowed Stocks Can Benefit Technicians
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Some stocks like Presidential Life have no analyst coverage, which means little trading activity. These stocks can present profitable opportunities to alert technicians....
Is TJX Ready To Move Higher?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After building an extended base, TJX looks ready to move higher....
The Chart Tells The Story
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Sometimes we can learn all we need to by looking at the chart, even without knowing the name of the company....
Coal: The Forgotten Commodity
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A relatively new ETF provides investors with a way to bet on the price of coal, a valuable commodity but historically tough to trade....
TradeStation, A Potential Long Trade
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...This well-known trading platform and brokerage firm is trading at a price equal to less than the cash on its books, and is a technical buy....
Using Sector Strength To Identify Buys
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Relative strength offers traders a way to identify top-performing sectors, and exchange traded funds offer a way for investors to trade these ideas....
Shanda Interactive: A Short Setup
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With the market looking vulnerable, an online gaming company based in China is worth looking at as a short candidate....
Potential Short Squeeze In Jefferies
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...This investment bank may see at least a short-term rise if short-sellers are forced to buy in at current levels....
Seasonal Trading Strategy: Buy STZ
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...This stock has gone up more than 70% of the time in June, and it is a potential winner in the month ahead....
Interest Rates Heading Higher?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With the Fed signaling that short-term rate cuts may have ended, the market is signaling that long-term rates are ready to rise....
Surprising Research On Mid-Caps
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...It is well known that small-cap stocks outperform large-caps over the long term. A recent analysis showed that mid-caps are actually the biggest long-term winners, and technicals support taking a position now....
Technicals Can Help Traders Avoid Disaster
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...IndyMac, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac have cost investors billions, but technicians should have been out of the stock or short these high-profile losers....
Intermarket Analysis With Canadian Stocks And Gold
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Canadian benchmark index is showing signs of weakness, and potential weakness for gold....
Bottom-Fishing For Potential Winners
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The market is oversold and could become more oversold, but dividends can provide income in case the decline continues....
The Worst June Since 1930
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...While news reports tell us how bad things are, the fact is provided without context. We need to look at what came before and after June 1930 to decide if we can draw any conclusion from this sound bite....
Betting On Financials
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...If the market continues higher, and the financials move with it, Washington Federal would be a smart way to play the rebound....
Short-Term Interest Rates And The Moon
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...An interesting lunar cycle has correctly forecast rate drops 10 out of 12 times in the past year....
Have Long-Term Rates Bottomed?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With the Federal Reserve pushing down short-term rates, the bond market seems to be worried about inflation and is resisting the Fed's efforts on the long end of the yield curve....
February Not The Best Time To Buy
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Over the past 20 years, February has been a down month. While seasonals are just one indicator, they add to the bearish case in a down market....
Ross Stores -- A Near Recession-Proof Stock
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Whether the market goes up or down, Ross Stores offers potential gains with limited risk....
Oversold Markets Can Stay Oversold
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With momentum indicators oversold, isn't the market due for a bounce?...
Early Sign Of Lower Oil Prices?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A company supporting offshore drilling is breaking down, possibly signaling that lower oil prices lie ahead....
Forest Labs: Boring But Good Technicals
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Forest Labs combines solid fundamentals in a defensive industry with technical reasons to buy....
Analyst Upgrades Aren't Always Buy Signals
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...When an analyst upgrades a stock, he or she is usually recognizing a company's improving fundamental conditions. Technicians can take short-term profits from recommendations by digging deeper....
Apple -- A Market Leader At A Critical Level
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Over the past year, shares of Apple doubled. With its stock price sitting right at a trendline, this market leader should be watched for clues on the short-term direction of the market....
Safe Bets In The Face Of Uncertainty
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Economists at leading brokers are forecasting a recession, while a poll of economists by Bloomberg forecasts a slowdown. Either way, consumer staples offer potentially rewarding investment opportunities....
A Sure Thing In Forex?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Seasonal trading strategies have long been used to identify trades in stocks and commodities. They work in foreign exchange markets also....
Profiting In Commercial Real Estate
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...If the time to buy is really when there is blood in the streets, it's time to start looking through the real estate sector....
The Market Knew Sharper Image Was In Trouble
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Long before a bankruptcy filing, the stock of Sharper Image showed signs of trouble for the retailer....
Coal: Volatility And Strength
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With coal companies continuing to surge higher, now might be a good time to explore using covered call strategies....
Monthly Charts Can Highlight Trading Opportunities
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After more than seven years, Learning Tree is showing signs of life....
Sometimes Bad News Means Buy
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Chattem announced the voluntary recall of a product that gave consumers third degree burns -- and the stock remains strong....
Jo-Ann Stores: Another Recession-Safe Retailer
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Some companies can fare well even in a slowing economy. JoAnn Stores is an example....
Bon-Ton: A Beaten-Down Retailer That May Have Bottomed
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Midpriced retailers are likely to do well in the coming months, as their customers get rebate checks under Congress' recently passed stimulus package....
Analysts Sometimes Get It Right — Short BT
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Analyst downgrades are often a signal that a stock's decline is over, but in the case of BT, this might just be the beginning of a steeper decline....
Teleflex — A Good Stock For An Uncertain Market
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...If Congress and the Federal Reserve can stimulate the economy, then it's time to buy industrials in anticipation of the recovery....
The January Barometer May Not Work This Year
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A market adage claims, "As goes January, so goes the year." Are we likely to see more declines over the next 11 months?...
The Super Bowl Indicator
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Should stock market investors care about who wins the National Football League's championship game?...
Anglogold Leading Gold Higher
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As the price of gold seems to have found a bottom, some gold mining stocks have shown strength and are worth buying....
Amazon Bottoming?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Amazon is showing signs of strength as the market shows signs of a bottom....
Trading Relative Strength Instead Of Price
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...It is possible to profit from relative strength charts, basing buy and sell decisions only on this indicator instead of looking at price....
A Safe 10% Dividend?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Markets overreact at times and create buying opportunities for the astute trader....
Buying Breakouts
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Buying stocks that hit new highs is a technique commonly employed by traders to catch the next big winner. Relative strength can be used to avoid buying overbought stocks likely to consolidate or decline in the short term....
Dollar Bottom?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...While analysts have been calling for a bottom in the US dollar for some time, this time might be different....
Limiting Risk In China
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Chinese stock market is among the most volatile in the world. Yet an Internet stock may offer a conservative way to gain exposure to this market....
If the Bear Has Really Ended...
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Early market leadership indicates small-cap value is the best area for new investments if stocks are headed higher....
Applying Relative Strength To ETFs
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Using a nontraditional approach to relative strength, we find that QQQQ is a buy....
Big Bases
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...If the market continues higher, stocks that have formed large consolidation patterns should be among the biggest winners....
Using The News To Find Trades
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Earnings releases and the biggest movers lists can highlight stocks ready to move....
Dow Theory Buy Signal
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Market action is bullish, according to this time-tested strategy....
Revisiting Gold
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With the International Monetary Fund deciding to sell more than 13 million ounces of gold, is now the time to take a short position?...
Could Transports Climb A Wall Of Worry?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With the news dominated by airlines entering bankruptcy and oil stubbornly clinging to record levels, this may be a good time for contrarians to look at transportation stocks....
Using Relative Strength To Avoid Losers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...While Frontier Airlines surprised investors with a bankruptcy announcement, relative strength investors would have steered clear of this disaster in the making before then....
Oriental Financial Group Has Multiple Bullish Signs
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A small bank shines bright amid the ruins of financial stocks....
With Motorola, Sloppy Topping Presents Trading Opportunity
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...In a down market, short trades offer profits to offset the losing long trades....
Constellation Energy Group And A Low Risk In A Volatile Market
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With the market having lost nearly 10% in recent weeks, safety should be a consideration for all investors....
Armstrong World Industries: It's The Pattern, Not The Name, That Matters
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Different analysts can see different patterns in charts, but all analysts should agree on whether the patterns are bullish or bearish....
Turkey Trade
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...In years past, buying this week and selling next week could have paid for a few holiday gifts....
LIN TV - Profits From Election Season?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...In an oversold market, bargain hunters can start looking for stocks with good long-term prospects. Lin TV has strong potential in the coming weeks and over the next year....
Buying When Everyone Else Is Selling
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Tax loss selling can lead to good buying opportunities, especially if the stock is faring poorly while the company thrives....
The Hot Market in 2007 -- China
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...China delivered incredible returns in 2007, but what about next year?...
Medis Technologies — Good Story, Good Technology, Good Technicals
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A company with strong green credentials and supportive fundamentals is a technical buy....
Buy Retailers For A Seasonal Bounce
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Thanksgiving and Christmas seasonal trades are well known. But this same idea can be applied to sectors, and we find a surprising seasonal strategy for January....
Buying The Loonie As A Stock Trade
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Using ETFs, stock traders can take advantage of currency trends....
Stockpickers Can Profit In Commodities Too
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The proliferation of exchange traded funds gives traders a chance to profit from moves in commodities without the risk of leveraged futures contracts....
Fundamental Risk In Emerging Markets
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...With technical signs of a top developing, EEM should be added to a list of potential short candidates....
Buying The Santa Claus Rally
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...After earning a very small profit on a seasonal Thanksgiving trade, we look at how to profit from Wall Street's legendary holiday bullishness....
Electronic Data Systems And Breaking The Downtrend
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Strong technicals in a fundamentally promising industry make EDS attractive....
Walter Industries, With Buying Based On The Long-Term View
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...As this stock moves out of a long-term base, shareholders may enjoy long-term profits from this diversified company....
Market Breadth Screaming "Buy Now!"
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Breadth thrusts have long been used by market professionals to spot low-risk buying opportunities....
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