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Is Cellcom Israel A Buy?

11/12/12 08:45:19 AM
by Koos van der Merwe

In today's uncertain market, one settling down after a Presidential election, when we receive a buy signal, it is better to analyze the share.

Security:   CEL
Position:   Buy

I have found over the years that the strategy I use to determine what shares to buy has given an approximate 5.7% return every month. With the recent negativity in the market since the Presidential election, when we receive a buy signal for a stock, we reexamine and question the strategy used to identify the stock. With the fiscal cliff on the horizon, with the Republican House of Representatives throwing stones in the path of a President determined to revive the economy without any bad blood, a bull market could have a slow start. Buying a stock is risky, but we should never forget that the best time to buy is when everybody else is selling.

FIGURE 1: CELLCOM, DAILY. Here's a vote line buy signal.
Graphic provided by: OmniTrader.
Figure 1 shows a buy signal in the vote line given by Cellcom Israel. The buy signal was triggered by the relative strength index (RSI) 12-period strategy, shown below the vote line. With the four-period RSI showing a buy signal, and the 14-period RSI not yet showing a buy signal, further research is necessary to determine the accuracy of the buy signal. Do note the cup & handle formation that appears to be forming. The advisor rating (not shown) was 56 for the vote line, a reasonably strong rating.

FIGURE 2: CELLCOM, DAILY. Here's an Elliott wave count.
Graphic provided by: AdvancedGET.
In Figure 2, the cup & handle formation that appears to be developing is very obvious. We can see how the share price rose to fill a gap. From that level of $9.88, it has retreated in what the chart believes is a Elliott wave 4. The probability index (PTI) suggesting that the price could rise in a wave 5 to $11.41 is 50, a sound figure. The RSI 14-period indicator is negative and not suggesting a buy, but volume as shown on the chart has been falling as the price corrected in wave 4, suggesting strength.

I would be a buyer of Cellcom Israel at the current price. More conservative investors, however, could wait for a break above the upper JM internal band before buying.

Koos van der Merwe

Has been a technical analyst since 1969, and has worked as a futures and options trader with First Financial Futures in Johannesburg, South Africa.

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