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Springtime in the US means an end to winter, a beginning to spring, and a return to the cycle of life of life renewed. Here in the Northeast it also means a time of road damage repair, with winter potholes patched and filled. Springtime 2011 for stock index markets may see some patching up in similar fashion before summer driving season arrives. |
FIGURE 1: June 2011 S&P 500 FUTURES |
Graphic provided by: NinjaTrader. |
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The June 2011 ES contract shows where price ended its parabolic ascent on waning volume in late February and recently completed a lower-high failure that formed a very crisp textbook wedge formation (Figure 1). Price has since broke down from that classic pattern and then staged an outside session aka a bullish engulfing candle to end the week. |
A retest of the 1310-1315 apex area of that formation, which fails and turns lower, would be bearish confirmed. A break below most recent lows (as of Friday, March 11, 2011) would be equally bearish. A break back above the 1320s and especially the 1330s would resume the rally following this pullback sequence. |
Should price continue lower as presumed until upside breakout proves otherwise, there is a multitude of open gaps below from the "Swiss cheese" rally fed by the POMO-driven liquidity push. Some, most, or all of those gaps will be filled eventually. Sooner or later, price will retrace and backfill lower levels from here. |
We'll track this chart and target those gaps as potential profit exits for short trades taken on confirmed sell signal entries to come. |
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