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Breakfast At Tiffany's

02/22/11 08:37:37 AM
by Koos van der Merwe

Okay, so it's not breakfast, but it is a cup & handle formation, with coffee? Bagels still to come.

Security:   TIF
Position:   Accumulate

Audrey Hepburn in the movie "Breakfast At Tiffany's" made an already famous jewelry store even more famous when the movie came out back in 1961. But Tiffany and Co. (TIF) was only listed in 1990, and the store is still one of the most expensive there is, so why, when the economy is not that good, has the share price suddenly started to rise dramatically? Are people buying more expensive jewelry all of a sudden? Whatever the answer, a look at the chart tells us a great deal of where we can expect the market to go.

Graphic provided by: AdvancedGET.
Figure 1 shows an Elliott wave count that suggests the share price is moving in a wave 2 of a wave V. This is confirmed by the relative strength index (RSI), which is at overbought levels. A look at previous RSI signals does show a divergent sell as a more likely sell signal. However, the chart does show a cup & handle formation developing with a target of $73.83 (65.52 - 57.21 = 8.31 + 65.52 = 73.83). Of course, this will only happen should the price break above the handle at $65.52.

The chart is telling us that wave V should top out at $73.83, which is $9.13 away from the present level. This is 14% higher from its present level. Does this mean we could see the market move 14% higher before the expected market correction? It looks like it. Until then, enjoy your breakfast at Tiffany's.

Koos van der Merwe

Has been a technical analyst since 1969, and has worked as a futures and options trader with First Financial Futures in Johannesburg, South Africa.

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