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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS


Time For 10K Hats?

09/01/09 08:20:12 AM
by Austin Passamonte

Near-term outlook for DJIA.

Security:   INDU
Position:   N/A

Those of us who were around back in the dinosaur days of 1999 recall that silly period in time where CNBC pundits donned party hats and horns as the DJIA marched relentlessly toward 10,000. See Figure 1.

FIGURE 1: DJIA, WEEKLY
Graphic provided by: TradeStation.
 
It's been a decade since then. Over that period, they tacked on another 4,000+ index points to all-time highs in late 2007, then shaved off more than half that total value by early 2009. Quite the volatile ride, indeed. The most recent +3,500 index point rise from March lows has been no less impressive than any prior period in time. You just can't keep the big index down for long. Two major trendline breaks (purple) and successful northward navigation of last autumn's upper congestion leaves nothing but blue skies from here to 10,000 or beyond. See Figure 2.

FIGURE 2: DJIA, DAILY
Graphic provided by: TradeStation.
 
But before they fly any higher, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stocks need to collectively thwart some projected resistance levels right here. Do that, and 10,000 or even 10,500 come into play for the medium future ahead.

Backward to 9400 is a one-day pullback to retest prior resistance, now-presumed support. Back to 9200 does nothing more than solidify a rather airy ascent from the last time down there a few sessions ago.

Full-bull ahead from 9200 or higher, especially if they take out 9600+ with emphasis on volume. Sideways magnetism may be the seasonal outlook, and that may come to fruition with all major stock indexes near or right at key layers of resistance. Resolutions are coming soon, with breakouts above or reversals below being the inevitable choice of outcome.



Austin Passamonte

Austin is a private trader who trades emini stock index futures intraday. He currently trades various futures markets from home in addition to managing a trader's educational forum

Title: Individual Trader
Company: CoiledMarkets.com
Address: PO Box 633
Naples, NY 14512
Website: coiledmarkets.com/blog
E-mail address: austinp44@yahoo.com

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