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by Austin Passamonte
Measuring the long-term view of crude oil futures market.
Position: N/A
Austin Passamonte
Austin is a private trader who trades emini stock index futures intraday. He currently trades various futures markets from home in addition to managing a trader's educational forum
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Crude Cruise
08/14/09 10:53:06 AMby Austin Passamonte
Measuring the long-term view of crude oil futures market.
Position: N/A
| In retrospect, the 2008 peaks of $140-plus per barrel crude oil (CL) prices from the levels which they rapidly rose was blatantly unsustainable. It was not a matter of if they would correct, but only from where and when. The subsequent plummet to sub-$40 prices in early 2009 was equally unsustainable. Somewhere in the middle of that $100-span barrel price range lies fair value. But where? |
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| FIGURE 1: CRUDE OIL FUTURES, WEEKLY |
| Graphic provided by: TradeStation. |
| |
| Since the peak lows earlier this year, price action has stairstepped upward to the $70 zone. We see where the $75 area that was hit was a three-week pause late last year, and served as the recent double-top test this summer. Barely above that is the +162% projection off the initial 1-2-3 lows ascent. |
| CL may hang around and bang around the $70+ to $80 price zone for a while. Crude oil futures need to drain off sell-stops clustered on the lower side of congestion and begin tapping into the buy-stops clustered above. Yes, those stops are clustered there, and the marketplace itself exists to find and test them for validity. |
| It is no real coincidence that the upper levels of 233% and then 377% Fibonacci projection measures happen to overlay prior congestion zones. The CL $90 zone and the $115 zone (give or take a $1pbl) are the magnetic attractions. We could and probably will see crude oil prices testing those levels in the not-too-distant future. From the high $70s to high $80s and then $115 or so are the stepping-stones above. Retracement to the $60 levels should find firm footing below. |
Austin is a private trader who trades emini stock index futures intraday. He currently trades various futures markets from home in addition to managing a trader's educational forum
| Title: | Individual Trader |
| Company: | CoiledMarkets.com |
| Address: | PO Box 633 |
| Naples, NY 14512 | |
| Website: | coiledmarkets.com/blog |
| E-mail address: | austinp44@yahoo.com |
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Date: 08/16/09Rank: 5Comment:
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