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LIN. REGTREND


The Oil Pipeline

03/25/09 08:34:17 AM
by James Kupfer

Shares in USO have formed a trend channel, but may be due for a small pullback.

Security:   USO
Position:   Sell

USO, the Oil Fund exchange traded fund, appears to have finally put in an intermediate-term bottom. Over recent weeks, shares of USO have formed a trend channel as shown in Figure 1. As can be seen, on six occasions USO has hit either the upper or lower boundary points. This confirms that the channel shown is indeed valid.

FIGURE 1: USO ETF, DAILY. USO is in an established uptrend within the linear regression channel.
Graphic provided by: Wealth-lab.
 
While USO is in a definite uptrend, note that stochastics are overbought and appear ready to turn down. The turn in stochastics helped identify the previous three tops, and there is no reason to think they won't again.

Depending on the trade time horizon, we could either enter a short here hoping for a brief move down, or close any long positions and then reestablish them once USO gets back to the bottom of the channel.



James Kupfer

Mr. Kupfer is a market professional and amateur stock market commentator. Disclosure: It is likely that Mr. Kupfer has or will enter a position in any security he writes about.


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Date: 03/26/09Rank: 5Comment: 
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