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Figure 1 shows Oracle (ORCL) and the price relative (blue line). The price relative is formed by dividing the price of the stock by the price of the index. In this example, I am using the NASDAQ 100. The price relative firmed the last two weeks of February and then turned up at the end of February with a surge over the last five days. Why this surge? Because Oracle held firm over the last five days and the NASDAQ 100 declined sharply. The combination makes the ORCL/NDX ratio rise and shows relative strength from Oracle. Relative strength is often one of the first signs of absolute strength. |
FIGURE 1: ORACLE, DAILY. The price relative is formed by dividing the price of the stock by the price of the index. |
Graphic provided by: Telechart 2007. |
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Turning to the price chart for Oracle (Figure 2), we can see a well-defined falling price channel over the last two to three months. This channel marks out a clear downtrend since mid-December, and it would take a move above 17.37 to break resistance. Such a move would reverse the downtrend and call for higher prices in the coming weeks and months. |
FIGURE 2: ORACLE, DAILY. Here we can see a well-defined falling price channel for the last two to three months. |
Graphic provided by: Telechart 2007. |
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There are signs of buying pressure within the channel. I already pointed out relative strength over the last five days, and the stock formed a bullish engulfing on higher volume last week (green box). As its name implies, this is a bullish candlestick reversal pattern that requires confirmation and a move above 17.37 would provide confirmation. Considering recent NASDAQ weakness, I am quite impressed with the high-volume advance four days ago. High volume shows a lot of buying interest and traders should be on guard for a follow-through breakout. |
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