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Contrarian investors who took advantage of the extreme negative investor sentiment would have benefited from today's explosive upside move. However, I am not convinced that today's price action signals a trend reversal. Although the price breakout was accompanied by extreme high volume, a positive indication, the open interest presents another story. Volume is plotted on the sub-chart below the price chart and open interest is plotted on the sub-chart below volume. |
Open interest, which is defined as the total of all unclosed purchases at the end of a session, did not change significantly from the previous day. In the futures markets, a healthy trend is accompanied by increasing open interest. It is only when this open interest starts declining can you expect a reversal. No evidence of a significant decline in open interest should prompt you to adopt the "wait and see" approach. |
A healthy trend is accompanied by increasing open interest. A decline in the open interest usually indicates a trend reversal. |
Graphic provided by: Tradesignals.com. |
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