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Buy South Africa

06/23/06 07:58:01 AM
by Koos van der Merwe

Every investor knows South Africa. With its gold and diamonds, as the old song goes, the country is a girl's best friend. Has it now become your best friend?

Security:   EZA
Position:   Buy

South Africa is probably one of the most beautiful countries in the world. Johannesburg, also known as the "City of Gold," boasts towering skyscrapers that have as a backdrop yellow mine dumps of the gold mines that built the city. Were it not for the extensive crime in the country, where residents live in houses fortified by electrified barbed wire, the city would double if not treble in size as immigrants look to the land of enormous opportunity.

FIGURE 1: EZA, DAILY. South Africa, the land of gold, diamonds, and opportunity, looks like an intriguing prospect.
Graphic provided by: AdvancedGET.
And this is what Figure 1 is telling us. Buy South Africa, either for its gold or its diamonds or for the fact that in four years' time, the country will be hosting the World Cup in soccer.

The chart is that of the South African i-Share, and shows how an Elliott cycle has been completed with the C-wave within the fourth wave of lesser degree. The only question mark, in what looks like a perfect wave formation, is the time. The five-wave upward count took three years, from March 2003 to May 2006, which suggests at least one year for the correction (38.2 Fibonacci ratio), which would take it to November 2007. However, the relative strength index (RSI) is showing a buy signal, and a look back at the chart shows that every time a buy has been given, the i-Share responded by rising significantly.

We can therefore now expect a rise into wave I, followed by a wave II correction. Investors with a higher risk profile may want to consider buying now. Those with a lower risk profile could wait for the wave 2 correction, which could be as much as a 72% retracement of wave 1.

Koos van der Merwe

Has been a technical analyst since 1969, and has worked as a futures and options trader with First Financial Futures in Johannesburg, South Africa.

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Vancouver, BC
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Date: 06/25/06Rank: 3Comment: 
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