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On the daily chart (Figure 1), the index surged from mid-July to mid-September and then declined from late September to late October. The decline retraced around 62% of the prior advance, which is normal for a correction. However, the index broke an important support level at 1130 in late October. The index must recover and undo this support break to have any chance of reversing the current downtrend. |
FIGURE 1: SHANGHAI COMPOSITE, DAILY. The index surged from mid-July to mid-September and then declined from late September to late October. |
Graphic provided by: MetaStock. |
Graphic provided by: MS QuoteCenter. |
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Since breaking support, the index has traded flat the past few weeks and a rising flag has formed. This is a bearish continuation pattern that would be confirmed with a move below the mid-November low (1075). This would call for a continuation of the September-October decline and target further weakness toward the July lows around 1000. Should the November lows hold, look for a break above broken support at 1130 to revive the bulls. |
Bollinger Band width moved to its narrowest in many months. This signals a contraction in volatility, and such contractions usually precede a move. Bollinger Bands do not offer a directional bias, but we can watch the upper and lower bands for clues. A break above the upper band would show strength and a break below the lower band would show weakness. Given the support break and the September-October decline, the odds favor a continuation and further weakness. Happy Thanksgiving! |
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