Canadian Dollar At Parity?

04/22/05 08:43:06 AM

by Koos van der Merwe

A popular newsletter writer in his report has suggested that he believes the Canadian dollar will go to parity with the US dollar. I don't see it, but then...

Security: C$
Position: Accumulate

Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the Canadian dollar, with my suggested wave count. The count is unusual in that wave 3 is shorter than wave 1, which means that wave 5 must be shorter than wave 3. The make or break (MOB) target indicator confirms this, with the wave 5 target of C$0.864 to the US dollar.

Figure 1: Canadian dollar, weekly chart.

The MOB study of Advanced GET is an excellent tool that can help us find the target price area for the end of an Elliott wave 5, or for any pattern that has an impulse-correction-impulse pattern.

This chart is my primary count and looks feasible, even with the unusual wave count. However, as every Elliottician knows, there is always an alternate chart in our back pocket. Figure 2 shows what I believe is totally unfeasible.

My calculations for future targets in Figure 2 are as follows.

Wave 0 - 0.719
Wave 1 - 0.85 = 0.131 - (0.85 - 0.719)
Wave 2 - 0.801 = 0.049 - (0.85 - 0.801)
Wave 3 - Wave 1 x 1.618 = 0.131 x 1.618 = 0.2119 + 0.801 = 1.0129
Wave 4 - Wave 2 = 0.049 = 1.0129 - 0.049 = 0.9639
Wave 5 - Wave 1 = 0.131 + 0.9639 = 1.0949

Figure 2: Canadian dollar, alternative weekly chart

Graphic provided by: AdvancedGET.

Wave 5 would be the top of wave III, which would then project wave V as high as 1.2119 to the US dollar. This looks very unfeasible, and I far prefer using the more conservative target count of Figure 1.

Although many pundits are calling for a Canadian dollar at parity with the US dollar, I cannot see it. My first Elliott chart (Figure 1), with its unusual wave count, looks far more acceptable than the count in Figure 2.

Koos van der Merwe

Has been a technical analyst since 1969, and has worked as a futures and options trader with First Financial Futures in Johannesburg, South Africa.