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Nasdaq And Elliott

03/31/05 07:50:23 AM
by Koos van der Merwe

The year 2005 should be a positive year, or so says the statistics since 1885. Not so, says a Nasdaq wave count.

Security:   OTC
Position:   Sell

Figure 1 is my primary wave count for the Nasdaq bear trend. Do note the following:

a. I am suggesting that the Nasdaq is currently in a wave C down. My reason is because the bull run started in October 1974 and topped out in March 2000, a period of 26 years. With bear markets expected to be 38.2% (a Fibonacci number) of the rise--9.8 years, we should expect the final C wave to bottom in 2010. The suggestion in the chart of 500-odd is not confirmed.
b. The two moving averages (MAs) look as if they may cross in the near future, suggesting a major sell. The MAs are light green, 40 period, dark green, 80 period.
c. The relative strength index (RSI)--and here I have chosen a 21-period RSI--is showing a divergence sell signal.

The viability of the count will be confirmed should the Nasdaq break below the current support trendline, and strengthened should it break below the 1769 pivot point support. Of course, the entire count will change should the Nasdaq break above the triple-top resistance level at 2210. Let us hope that the latter become primary.

Figure 1: Nasdaq wave weekly chart. Here's the Nasdaq weekly chart showing the primary Elliott wave count.
Graphic provided by: AdvancedGET.

Koos van der Merwe

Has been a technical analyst since 1969, and has worked as a futures and options trader with First Financial Futures in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Address: 3256 West 24th Ave
Vancouver, BC
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