ELLIOTT WAVE

Another Negative For The US Dollar

03/07/05 07:52:37 AM

by Koos van der Merwe

On February 15, I argued that the US dollar has further to fall. Here is another chart and another argument that suggests just how low.

Security: UDX
Position: Sell

Figure 1 is a simple Elliott wave chart of the US Dollar Index (UDX). What is disturbing is that the count is almost classic and suggests that Wave 5 will be in the 71.14 area, a further fall of 17.06% (85.78-71.14 = 14.64/85.78 = 0.1706 * 100 = 17.06%). This ties in with my article "Forecasting The US Dollar" of February 15, where I used the movement of the Canadian dollar to predict a further 16%-odd fall in the US dollar.

The chart is very roughly suggesting a low for the US dollar sometime in June/July or August, with a rise into an ABC correction taking it to the 90.19 level. This will be true should the US dollar fall to the 71.14 level as suggested in the chart, a level chosen because of the support line I,III,V.

Figure 1: A weekly chart of the US Dollar Index. The chart is roughly suggesting a low for the US dollar sometime in June/July or August, with a rise into an ABC correction taking it to the 90.19 level.

Graphic provided by: AdvancedGET.

Of course, the US dollar could surprise us all and bottom out before this level, but the fact that I used a completely different technique to forecast a further 16% fall in the US dollar makes this one acceptable.

What happens after the high at "C" when the ABC correction occurs? By all accounts there should be another 5 wave down, but this impulse wave could hopefully be a flat, forming a double bottom at 71.14. Anything else will be too painful to consider.

Koos van der Merwe

Has been a technical analyst since 1969, and has worked as a futures and options trader with First Financial Futures in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Address:	3256 West 24th Ave
	Vancouver, BC
Phone # for sales:	6042634214
E-mail address:	petroosp@gmail.com

Click here for more information about our publications!

Comments

Date:�03/07/05Rank:�3Comment:�

Date:�03/08/05Rank:�4Comment:�

Date:�03/15/05Rank:�4Comment:�

PRINT THIS ARTICLE

Comments or Questions?	Article Usefulness
	5 (most useful) 4 3 2 1 (least useful)

ELLIOTT WAVE

Another Negative For The US Dollar

Comments

SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FREE EMAIL NEWSLETTER!

SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FREE
EMAIL NEWSLETTER!