|Figure 1: Turkey ISE National 100.|
|Graphic provided by: MetaStock.|
|In Turkey, the HSBC building and British Embassy were targeted on November 20th when terrorists blew them up with explosive laden trucks. As a direct result of the terrorist attack, the Istanbul ISE National 100 declined over 1000 points (-7.3%) in one day (green arrow). However, the index bounced back when trading resumed on December 1st with an even larger gain and the uptrend was never in jeopardy. The index is currently up over 25% since the bombing, remains in a strong uptrend, and recently recorded a new high above 20000.|
Figure 2: Pakistan's Karachi 100 index.
Pakistan has been a key U.S. ally in the Afghan war and the ongoing hunt for Al Qaeda operatives, both in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The war in Afghanistan began in early October 2001 and coincided with a significant bottom in the Karachi 100 (1071 or green arrow). With the war in Afghanistan, Pakistan became home to a number of Al Qaeda and Taliban "refugees." However, somebody forgot to tell the stock market. Over the last two and a half years, the index is up over 3900 points for a spectacular gain in excess of 350%. More importantly, the uptrend was never seriously challenged and remains intact.
|These two countries were the most affected by recent U.S. military campaigns: Pakistan by the campaign in Afghanistan and Turkey by the campaign in Iraq. Despite the upheavals, terrorist threats and terrorist strikes, the stock markets in both countries have been and remain in strong uptrends. Overbought, maybe, but uptrends nonetheless. While the media may be blaming current weakness in U.S. stocks on the terrorist threat or security issues, technicians would be better off keeping an eye on the chart. It's the chart stupid!|
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