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HEAD & SHOULDERS


The Jean Coutu Group

09/18/03 01:24:44 PM
by Koos van der Merwe

The Jean Coutu Group (CA: PJCA) is the second largest drugstore chain in Canada and the eighth-largest in North America, with 311 pharmacy stores in Quebec, Ontario, New Brunswick, and 332 Brooks pharmacies in the U.S. northeast. The company may be making significant acquisitions in the northeastern U.S. by Christmas. Rumor or fact?

Security:   CA:PJCA
Position:   Buy

Jean Coutu's share price has moved from a low (not shown on the chart) in April 2000 of $6.80, to a high of $20.00 on June 4, 2002. From that high it dropped steadily, breaking its support line to reach a low of $13.24 on March 12, 2003. It then rose to form a double top formation at $16.59 in what could be a cup and handle pattern.


Figure 1: Long-term chart of the Jean Coutu Group.
Graphic provided by: AdvancedGET.
 
However, the share price fell to $14.20 on August 28, and has now risen to form an inverted head and shoulder pattern. Looking at the second chart, both the cup and handle and inverted head and shoulders formations can be seen.


Figure 2: Short-term chart of the Jean Coutu Group.

Now comes the interesting part. The inverted head and shoulders formation gives a target of $16.84, which is above the $16.59 of the handle for the cup and handle formation. This suggests that in reaching the target of $16.84, the share price will form a new target of $19.94. ($16.59 - $13.24 = $3.35 + $16.59 = $19.94.)

Both charts show positive indicators, with the long-term chart using RSI, and the short-term using MACD. Definitely a stock to place on your watch list for a buy on any retracement.




Koos van der Merwe

Has been a technical analyst since 1969, and has worked as a futures and options trader with First Financial Futures in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Address: 3256 West 24th Ave
Vancouver, BC
Phone # for sales: 6042634214
E-mail address: petroosp@gmail.com

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