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Article Archive For Keyword: Ehlers
Download1989 cycles by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...1989 cycles by John F. Ehlers Cycle activity in 1989 was substantially higher than in 1988, and some role reversals in cycle personalities appear to have occurred relative to the previous year. To measure and examine 1989 cycle activity, I used 12 perpe
1991 Cycles by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...1991 Cycles by John F. Ehlers If you've always suspected that contracts have definite personalities, you would have your suspicions confirmed this way. Here's an overview of various cycles that appeared in some futures markets during 1991, the way only
A complete computer trading program (part 1) by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...A complete computer trading program (part 1) by John F. Ehlers This is the first of four articles that give a description and computer listing, enabling you to perform technical analysis with your computer. In the second article I will cover the basics
A complete computer trading program Part 4 by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...A complete computer trading program Part 4 by John F. Ehlers This is the conclusion of four articles that give a description and listing of an AppletŇ ][ BASIC computer program, enabling you to perform technical analysis on your computer with 48K of mem
A complete computer trading program part 2 by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...A complete computer trading program part 2 by John F. Ehlers This program works with the standard CompuTrac or CSI (Commodity Systems, Inc.) disk data reading format (Table 1). The fundamental idea of this program is to take a 40-character string record
A complete computer trading program part 3 by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...A complete computer trading program part 3 by John F. Ehlers This is the third of four articles that give a description and BASIC computer program listing enabling you to perform technical analysis on your Apple ][ computer. In the first two installmen
Computing Cyclic Entries by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Computing Cyclic Entries by John F. Ehlers Knowing how to compute entry points for your trades exactly at price crests and valleys when the market is in the cyclic mode can be advantageous. In fact, the procedure can be adjusted to anticipate price extr
Corona Charts by John F. Ehlers
Creating Indicators With Physics by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Creating Indicators With Physics by John F. Ehlers Do we limit words or do words limit us? As Stocks & Commodities contributor John Ehlers opines, we can't really describe market activity with terms now used in the technical trading field. He suggests a
Cycle Analysis And Intraday Trading by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Cycle Analysis And Intraday Trading by John F. Ehlers Veteran S TOCKS & COMMODITIES contributor John Ehlers explains how to make use of cycles analysis in intraday trading, heretofore a rarity. Take a look. Intraday traders have long had most of the tec
Cyclic personalities by John Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Cyclic personalities by John Ehlers Are there basic differences in the cyclic behavior of various commodities? Although theory predicts short-term cycles will come and go, there is no theory predicting different cyclic ""personalities"" for different co
Determining Equity Growth Performance by John F. Ehlers and Mike Barna
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Determining Equity Growth Performance by John F. Ehlers and Mike Barna What are the merits of using technical analysis trading systems? Evaluate them here. Technical analysts have the option of trading with either discretionary or systematic techniques
Do Cycles Exist in the Market? by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...This longtime S&C contributor explains the basis of the existence of cycles in market data. The markets are not always efficient; this is why trading decisions based on technical analysis work. Chart patterns that are discernible, technical events such
Early Trend Identification by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Early Trend Identification by John F. Ehlers Impressive profits can be accumulated just by staying with a position during a trend. We would all be millionaires if only we could identify the trend early in its onset. While the trends are obvious in retro
Ehlers Loops, Part 1
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Introducing a new way to discretionarily predict bullish and bearish moves in the market
Empirical Mode Decomposition by John F. Ehlers and Ric Way
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Empirical Mode Decomposition by John F. Ehlers and Ric Way Is the market trending or is it in a cycle mode? Identify the mode of the market and trade accordingly. Even the most casual chart reader will be able to spot the times when the market is cycli
Fourier Transform For Traders by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Stocks & Commodities V. 25:1 (24-34): Fourier Transform For Traders by John F. Ehlers When market conditions are variable, adapting to them becomes a challenge. Here's how you can use a dominant cycle to tune the relevant indicators so you don't have to
Fractal Adaptive Moving Averages by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Stocks & Commodities V. 23:10 (81-82): Fractal Adaptive Moving Averages by John F. Ehlers We all want to eliminate bad whipsaw trades. Here's a weapon you can add to your arsenal of technical indicators for just that purpose. The objective of using fil
Hilbert Indicators Tell You When To Trade by John Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Hilbert Indicators Tell You When To Trade by John Ehlers On Lag, Signal Processing, And The Hilbert Transform Here's one way to control moving average lag, using a little math and a little-known algorithm called the Hilbert transform to come up with in
How to use Maximum Entropy by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...How to use Maximum Entropy by John F. Ehlers MESA is an acronym for Maximum Entropy Spectrum Analysis, a forecasting method that filters the ""noise"" from time series data and can uncover useful cycles. The advantages of the maximum entropy method over
Interview: A Conversation With John Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...After four decades of providing products, services, and education to traders through his company, MESA Software, John F. Ehlers has announced his retirement. Ehlers, a Contributing Editor to STOCKS & COMMODITIES since nearly the magazine's launch, is a p
Interview: Market Data Insights With John Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...John F. Ehlers is a market technician with a specialty in the study of market data and cycles, as well as using that data more effectively to develop trading strategies. In the early 1980s, around the same time this magazine was launched, he was pioneeri
John Ehlers And The Fisher Transform
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...I bought the first MESA program sold by John Ehlers sometime in 1985-86 when I was looking for something other than Gann fans and Fourier analysis to determine cycles. That's when I first learned about John Ehlers.
John F. Ehlers Of MESA
Leading indicators with momentum by John Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Leading indicators with momentum by John Ehlers Newcomers to technical trading are often confused by terminology. Oscillators don't oscillate and stochastics have nothing to do with random variables. Neither does momentum describe the force required to
MESA Adaptive Moving Averages by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...MESA Adaptive Moving Averages by John F. Ehlers What if you combined the power of maximum entropy spectral analysis with the Hilbert transform's ability to discern phase change? The MESA adaptive moving average (MAMA) adapts to price movement in a new
Measuring Cycle Periods by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Measuring Cycle Periods by John F. Ehlers Measuring cycle periods allows you to adjust your indicators so they adapt to current market conditions. Here's how. IF you want to make your indicators and strategies adaptive to current market conditions, you
Modeling The Market = Building Trading Strategies by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Stocks & Commodities V. 24:8 (20-26): Modeling The Market = Building Trading Strategies by John F. Ehlers The correct model can form the foundation for comprehensive trading strategies. Modeling the market is important because you can build comprehensi
Moving Average Computations, Made Easier by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Moving Average Computations, Made Easier by John F. Ehlers Presenting programming tricks to simplify coding indicators and strategies. A simple moving average of length N is computed by adding N values and dividing the sum by N. The process is repeated
Moving averages Part 1 by John Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Moving averages Part 1 by John Ehlers Averages have long been recognized as the best estimator of a random variable. Traders use moving averages as trading signals or as components of trading systems, but the moving average characteristics are seldom de
Moving averages Part 2 Ehlers Leading Indicator (ELI) by John Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Moving averages Part 2 Ehlers Leading Indicator (ELI) by John Ehlers Most technical indicators use a moving average of some kind, and this usually dooms the indicator to lag price. Some indicators use momentum, or rate of change, to generate a leading f
Moving averages Part 2 Ehlers Leading Indicator (ELI) by John Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Moving averages Part 2 Ehlers Leading Indicator (ELI) by John Ehlers Most technical indicators use a moving average of some kind, and this usually dooms the indicator to lag price. Some indicators use momentum, or rate of change, to generate a leading f
Moving averages and smoothing filters by John Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Moving averages and smoothing filters by John Ehlers Moving averages are perhaps the single most widely used technical trading tool. While averages are important tools, let's face it--we don't need computers to calculate them. Traders were using moving a
Nonlinear Ehlers Filters by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...What If Linear Filters Won't Work For Your Tradable? Nonlinear Ehlers Filters Linear filters like moving averages are great for slow, "stationary" data. Unfortunately, prices aren't slow or stationary. By John Ehlers The most common filters that trade
Nonlinear Ehlers Filters by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...What If Linear Filters Won't Work For Your Tradable? Nonlinear Ehlers Filters Linear filters like moving averages are great for slow, "stationary" data. Unfortunately, prices aren't slow or stationary. By John Ehlers The most common filters that trade
Optimizing RSI with cycles by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Optimizing RSI with cycles by John F. Ehlers A look at Wilder's Relative Strength Index oscillator and an optimization using cycles. Also included is a BASIC computer program which follows the author's optimization processes. As an engineer I have ofte
Optimizing directional movement with cycles by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Optimizing directional movement with cycles by John F. Ehlers Directional Movement, an approach which weighs the daily difference between highs and the difference between lows, can be optimized by applying cycle concepts. Ehlers explains the process and
Optimum Detrending by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Optimum Detrending by John F. Ehlers Look at any price chart, and you'll find that markets move up and down even while in a trend . Removing the trend can help identify short-term turning points. Frequent STOCKS & COMMODITIES contributor John Ehlers pre
Optimum Predictive Filters by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...V13:06: (247-251):Optimum Predictive Filters by John F. Ehlers The optimum predictive filter is the difference between a technical indicator, such as the relative strength indicator or stochastics, and its exponential moving average. Here, we describe i
Pairs Rotation With Ehlers Loops, Part 2
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Last time in part 1, a new charting style named Ehlers Loops was introduced that could help you to gain predictive insights by the nature of the display. This time, we'll look at Ehlers Loops in action with a pairs trading example
Phasor Displays by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Phasor Displays by John F. Ehlers A high-tech display pinpoints anomalies and trading opportunities in price behavior. Remember that famous glass of water? The one that optimists see as half full and pessimists see as half empty? An engineer, however,
Profit mapping by John Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Profit mapping by John Ehlers Optimization has been attacked by many technicians -- and rightfully so -- because peaking profit is virtually the same as curve fitting to back data. Used in this fashion, optimization can produce startling track records and
Relative Vigor Index by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Relative Vigor Index by John F. Ehlers Here's an old concept brought to light using modern filters to make it a practical, useful indicator. Since the inception of STOCKS & COMMODITIES (happy 20th anniversary year!), there have been several development
Setting stops: A new approach by John Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Setting stops -- a new approach by John Ehlers The cliche in golf is ""drive for show, but putt for dough."" The analogy in technical trading is that the ability to pick entry points is highly focused, but scant attention is paid to how to exit a trade.
Sidebar: FRAMA EasyLanguage code by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Stocks & Commodities V. 23:10 (81-82): Sidebar: FRAMA EasyLanguage code by John F. Ehlers FRAMA EASYLANGUAGE CODE Inputs: Price((H+L)/2); N(16); {N must be an even number} Vars: count(0); N1(0), N2(0), N3(0), HH(0), LL(0), Dimen(0), alpha(0), Filt(0);
Sidebar: Swiss Army Knife EasyLangague Code by John F. Ehlers
Stay In Phase by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Stay In Phase by John F. Ehlers This cycles software specialist discusses an indicator based on cyclical analysis. A cycle is one market characteristic that can be scientifically measured. Although they can be measured, they are still maddening because
Swiss Army Knife Indicator by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Stocks & Commodities V. 24:1 (28-31, 50-53): Swiss Army Knife Indicator by John F. Ehlers You've probably never heard of this indicator, but it has all the common functions such as smoothing and momentum generation. Find out why it's going to be your ne
The Bandpass Indicator by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...The Bandpass Indicator by John F. Ehlers Here's an indicator that can be adjusted to be a leading indicator of market reversals based on the cycles in the price data, presented by a longtime S&C contributor. The bandpass indicator is an oscillator-typ
The Center Of Gravity Oscillator by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...The Center Of Gravity Oscillator by John F. Ehlers Here's an indicator that identifies every major turning point without much lag. This new oscillator is unique in that it is smoothed and has essentially zero lag. The smoothing enables clear identifica
The Instantaneous Trendline by John F. Ehlers, Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...The Instantaneous Trendline by John F. Ehlers, Ph.D. Is it possible to have an instantaneous trendline? To say that a trendline is "instantaneous" may be presumptuous, but because you can compute a continuous trendline with modern technology and thus a
The Inverse Fisher Transform by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...The Inverse Fisher Transform by John F. Ehlers How often have you been indecisive about entering or exiting a trade? Here's one way to get a clear indication. The purpose of technical indicators is to help time your decisions to buy or sell. Ideally, t
The MACD Indicator Revisited by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...The MACD Indicator Revisited by John F. Ehlers The moving average convergence-divergence (or MACD, as it is familiarly known), one of the more popular technical indicators, was invented by technician Gerald Appel to trade the 26-week and 13-week cycles
The RSI Smoothed by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...The RSI Smoothed by John F. Ehlers Here's how you can enhance the performance of the RSI. Smoothing an indicator usually means a tradeoff between the amount of smoothing you desire and the amount of lag you can stand. In this article I will show you ho
Trading In Your IRA by John Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Stocks & Commodities V. 25:3 (22-24): Trading In Your IRA by John Ehlers This concept lets you trade your IRA with performance that can beat the index dramatically. Trading in your individual retirement account (IRA) usually means selecting which mutua
Trading threshold by John Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Trading threshold by John Ehlers In radar, signal-to-noise ratio is used to measure the quality of target detection. In trading, this simple concept can be used to hit our profit targets better. We can improve our trading profitability if trading decisi
Understanding cycles by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Understanding cycles by John F. Ehlers Introduction The first thing we must recognize is that cycle analysis doesn't always work for profitable investment strategy. This is no great surprise, because cycles must be present in the data history for any a
Using A Constant False Alarm Rate In Trading by John Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Using A Constant False Alarm Rate In Trading by John Ehlers Modern information theory has existed for the last half century or so. This theory has been responsible for man significant scientific advances, including recovery of photograph taken in deep s
Using The Fisher Transform by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Using The Fisher Transform by John F. Ehlers Looking for better trading results? This indicator shows you how to identify price reversals in a timely manner. he common assumption is that prices have a Gaussian, or normal, probability density function (
V.15:11 (505-509) Cycle Measurements by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...The author of Mesa and Trading Cycles and developer of the MESA software series presents why you should dynamically adjust your indicators due to the change in market cycles. There's no doubt about it: Market cycles can be difficult to identify. But if
What's The Difference by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Stocks & Commodities V. 23:3 (28-29): What's The Difference by John F. Ehlers What's the difference between the median and the average? It's what drives this new adaptive smoothing filter. Remember back in school when your teacher asked you what the di
When To Trade With Cycles by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Stocks & Commodities V. 25:4 (32-34): When To Trade With Cycles by John F. Ehlers When should you trade the cycle mode in a market and when should you trade the trend mode? Find out with this indicator. In theory, trading with cycles is easy -- just buy
Zero-Lag Data Smoothers by John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Zero-Lag Data Smoothers by John Ehlers Here's a technique that can reduce lag to nearly zero. A causal filter can never predict the future. As a matter of fact, the laws of nature demand that all filters must have lag. However, if we assume steady-stat
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