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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS


Slippery Slopes Of Crude

10/03/11 10:31:13 AM
by Austin Passamonte

Here's the midterm price outlook for crude oil futures.

Security:   Crude oil futures
Position:   N/A

From the start of 2011 through the present, crude oil futures have been as roiled, wild, and volatile as any commodity market could be. Considering oil gets treated as a consumer product and a quasi-currency alike, it's been a year's worth of global unrest in the political and financial arenas.

FIGURE 1: CRUDE OIL, WEEKLY
Graphic provided by: NinjaTrader.
 
Figure 1 shows the most recent 1-2-3 lower swing from early 2011 highs projects price magnets at 77+, 72+ and 70 price zones for crude oil futures.

The 85 level served as lower zone congestion from mid-2010 through September 2011. Now that it has clearly given way, any further tests of that zone are presumed to be resistance until proven otherwise.

FIGURE 2: CRUDE OIL, MONTHLY
Graphic provided by: NinjaTrader.
 
Figure 2, a monthly chart view of crude oil futures, shows price action magnetized near a long-term pivotal zone dating back through late 2008 to early 2009. If this level fails to contain selling, 72-73 from the early 2009 era will be revisited.

The fate of crude oil rests in dual hands: supply/demand from end-use as a commodity and dollar-value gyrations as a quasi-world currency of sorts. With world economies rocked and US dollar values ascending, downward is the trend of friends in crude oil futures for now.



Austin Passamonte

Austin is a private trader who trades emini stock index futures intraday. He currently trades various futures markets from home in addition to managing a trader's educational forum

Title: Individual Trader
Company: CoiledMarkets.com
Address: PO Box 633
Naples, NY 14512
Website: coiledmarkets.com/blog
E-mail address: austinp44@yahoo.com

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