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Values Trend

08/06/10 08:33:27 AM
by Austin Passamonte

Here's the near-term outlook for currency pricing values.

Security:   USD, EC, CL
Position:   N/A

World currency markets have covered significant ground on their charts through the first half of 2010. It appears likely the markets will roam even more through the second half ahead.

FIGURE 1: US DOLLAR, INDEX, DAILY
Graphic provided by: TradeStation.
 
The US Dollar Index peaked in June 2010 and has declined pretty much straight down from there (Figure 1). An ascending trendline from the April swing lows to the June peak high was broken in 1-2-3 fashion on a test of support turned resistance. The round trip from 88+ highs to 80+ present levels is just about complete, with meshed supports barely below at 79.50 to 80.

FIGURE 2: EURO FUTURES, DAILY
Graphic provided by: TradeStation.
 
The euro/US dollar (EURUSD) futures finally broke the long-term trendline (blue) lower, stretching from December 2009 through July 2010 (Figure 2). A few words from Fed chair Ben Bernanke about leaving interest rates alone for a while was the spark that propelled price above that overhead mark. New trendlines of support (olive) show the present and then pullback support levels below.

FIGURE 3: CRUDE OIL FUTURES, DAILY
Graphic provided by: TradeStation.
 
Crude oil futures rode a -$25 per barrel (adjusted contracts) down from 2010 present highs to lows (Figure 3). A higher-low lift from the bottom formed a technical wedge (olive), which broke out and headed for longer-term resistance line (blue) near the 84 level above.

The US dollar index is about to test significant support. Euro futures are climbing a steep trendline ascent that likely will pull back to fill some air pockets below. Crude oil is about to hit significant overhead resistance above. The daily chart picture for all three "currency" markets above reflects potential for near-term pause or stall of current price direction across the board.



Austin Passamonte

Austin is a private trader who trades emini stock index futures intraday. He currently trades various futures markets from home in addition to managing a trader's educational forum

Title: Individual Trader
Company: CoiledMarkets.com
Address: PO Box 633
Naples, NY 14512
Website: coiledmarkets.com/blog
E-mail address: austinp44@yahoo.com

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Date: 08/10/10Rank: 5Comment: 
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