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• A Regression-Based Oscillator by Patrick E. Lafferty

  ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A Regression-Based Oscillator by Patrick E. Lafferty Editor's note: Mr. Lafferty originally submitted this article as an entry to the June Traders' Challenge contest. We decided to run it as a separate article because the idea that Mr. Lafferty presented in his entry intrigued me and we thought that STOCKS & COMMODITIES readers would similarly be interested in his techniques. Although my primary interest in trading is in stock index options, after reading the June STOCKS & COMMODITIES interview with John Murphy, I realized that my stock index analyses could benefit from better understanding ...

AUTHOR: Patrick E. LaffertyDATE: SEP1991

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• Guidelines With Support And Resistance by Richard L. Evans

  ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Guidelines With Support And Resistance by Richard L. Evans Given the explosive growth of the financial markets, with all the derivative products and the increased complexity of trading strategies, all aided by the evolution of computers, some exotic forms of technical analysis have emerged. A perusal of some of the recent features of STOCKS & COMMODITIES is enough to overwhelm many an average investor. However, one of the oldest forms of technical analysis, support and resistance, can still put the individual investor on the same playing field with the institutional investor when it involves ...

AUTHOR: Richard L. EvansDATE: SEP1991

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• Letters To S&C by Technical Analysis, Inc.

  ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Letters To S&C by Technical Analysis, Inc. LEAST SQUARE, MOST COOL Editor, ""A regression-based oscillator"" by Patrick E. Lafferty (STOCKS & COMMODITIES, September) was very good, and I would like to see many more articles by him. His trading method was logically developed and appears to be very promising. As the basis of his approach depends upon a least-square trend, I was dumbfounded in applying this method because I did not understand the least-square equation: P = 390.52 - t(0.77202) + t2 (0.0055339) where P is the price of June gold in dollars per ounce and t is the time in days. ...

AUTHOR: Technical Analysis, Inc.DATE: SEP1991

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• Nonlinearity, Chaos Theory and the DJIA by Victor E. Krynicki, Ph.D.

  ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Nonlinearity, Chaos Theory and the DJIA by Victor E. Krynicki, Ph.D. Here's a fresh look on using nonlinear systems and chaos theory to understand the markets. Concepts deriving from nonlinear systems and chaos theory have begun to be applied to understand stock market behavior. In a STOCKS & COMMODITIES article, Hans Hannula presented an attempt to apply the concept of the strange attractor to major price swings, pointing out that stock market behavior evinces both linear and nonlinear domains. Within a linear domain of the stock market, a proportional relationship controls price moves, si...

AUTHOR: Victor E. Krynicki, Ph.D.DATE: SEP1991

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• Pattern Recognition And Candlesticks by Gary S. Wagner and Bradley L. Matheny

  ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Pattern Recognition And Candlesticks by Gary S. Wagner and Bradley L. Matheny Here's a look at the new order of artificial intelligence linked with the old order of candlestick charting By now, who hasn't heard of the Japanese form of charting called candlesticks? Until Steve Nison introduced candlestick charting to the West a few years ago, charting services or software programs that offered graphically displayed data in candlestick format were few and far between. Finding a guidebook or manual on interpretations of candlesticks and their patterns was almost unattainable unless one could re...

AUTHOR: Gary S. Wagner and Bradley L. MathenyDATE: SEP1991

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• Price/Earnings Ratios by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

  ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Price/Earnings Ratios by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T. Here's a look at an old fundamental analysis favorite and what it can do for the technical analyst. For many years I have monitored the performance of a group of 30 to 50 stocks that have been exhibiting rapid and consistent growth in earnings per share. They are true growth stocks, with growth rates averaging an increase in earnings per share of more than 20% per year. To qualify for the list, the stock must be listed on the New York Stock Exchange and must have increased its earnings per share in each of the past five years. When earnings ...

AUTHOR: Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.DATE: SEP1991

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• Quantifying The Tried And True by John Sweeney

  ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Quantifying The Tried And True by John Sweeney Some people think that my use of numbers indicates a lack of respect for traditional charting techniques. Quite the opposite is true. I've found over the years that what I've come up with generally confirms many of the tried-and-true trading axioms and charting techniques, only I've been able to put numbers to many of them which before were unquantified advice. A good example is the work on maximum adverse excursion (MAE) (STOCKS & COMMODITIES, October 1985, and S&C, January 1991), which advised you to focus on minimizing losses in order to be a...

AUTHOR: John SweeneyDATE: SEP1991

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• Starting A Technical Analysis Group by Barbara Star, Ph.D.

  ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Starting A Technical Analysis Group by Barbara Star, Ph.D. While the perfect trading system may be elusive, sharing information with others is very attainable. One way to do so is to become part of a technical analysis group. Technical analysts constantly search for the knowledge that could propel them to the realm of the truly great (or, at least, the consistently good) trader. Part of the search includes the desire to compare notes and experiences with other traders. While the perfect trading system may remain elusive, sharing information with others is a very attainable goal. One of the b...

AUTHOR: Barbara Star, Ph.D.DATE: SEP1991

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• Steve Shobin Of Merrill Lynch by Thom Hartle

  ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Steve Shobin Of Merrill Lynch by Thom Hartle I'd first like to start off with some information about your background and how you first became interested in technical analysis. I graduated from the University of Pittsburgh in 1966 as an English literature major; became a cab driver and a social worker and thought that there had to be a better way of making a living. So I joined Merrill Lynch in 1967. I had always had an avocational interest in the stock market but never thought of using technical analysis. Then a gentleman named Mr. Berer from Pittsburgh introduced me to Chart Craft's three-p...

AUTHOR: Thom HartleDATE: SEP1991SUBJECT: Interview

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• Time Series Forecasting: ARMAX by Thomas H. Lincoln

  ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Time Series Forecasting: ARMAX by Thomas H. Lincoln As an avid reader of stock market books and newspapers, I have observed the overwhelming number of graphic illustrations of economic and market indicators. Oftentimes some indicators are contradicted by others and leave the future direction of the market probable, but not always quantitatively definite. Determined to make a useful forecast from the many graphs and indicators, I have combined a multiple regression model of several economic indicators and related market indicators with the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models of Box-Jen...

AUTHOR: Thomas H. LincolnDATE: SEP1991