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• Are The Averages in Gear? by Richard L. Evans

  ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Are The Averages in Gear? by Richard L. Evans What is Dow theory really indicating when the industrial and transportation averages are out of sync? Here's a Dow theory specialist to clarify. One of Dow theory's main tenets and the basis of much modern-day technical analysis is the principle of confirmation. The confirmation theory originally took shape when Charles Dow first noticed that important market movements were preceded by joint confirmation of his two indices, the industrials and (at that time) the rails. Given that both indices represented at the time nearly all the important stock...

AUTHOR: Richard L. EvansDATE: NOV1994

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• Developing An Expert System To Forecast The Stock Market by Mike Flanagan, Ph.D.

  ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Developing An Expert System To Forecast The Stock Market by Mike Flanagan, Ph.D. Nowadays, computers are often used to develop rule-based trading strategies. Frequently, these rules will be based on work provided by experts; such rule-based models are generally called expert systems. Here, Mike Flanagan takes you through the process of developing an expert system for generating medium- (three- to six-month) and long-term (six- to 12-month) forecasts of the US stock market. An expert system is a computer program that uses deductive logic to simulate the decision-making process of humans. The...

AUTHOR: Mike Flanagan, Ph.D.DATE: NOV1994

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• Extremes Analysis Of Interest Rates And Stock by Mark C. Snead

  ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Extremes Analysis Of Interest Rates And Stock by Mark C. Snead This former investment broker explains the relationship between declining interest rates and the lagged effect on the stock market. Interest rate changes exert a powerful influence on stock price movements. The relationship is a decidedly negative one, with historical stock returns much higher on average with falling interest rates than with rising interest rates. The aspect of this relationship that perhaps most deserves careful analysis is the lagged impact of rate changes on stock prices. After an interest rate change, stock ...

AUTHOR: Mark C. Snead, Ph.D.DATE: NOV1994

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• Louis Navellier Of The MPT Review

  ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Louis Navellier Of The MPT Review Modern portfolio theory (MPT) uses statistical analysis, screening and ranking of stocks to decide what and where to invest. Louis Navellier, money manager and publisher of The MPT Review, specializes in using this method for selecting stocks that will outperform the market. Stocks & Commodities asked Navellier for details on how he goes about selecting stocks and designing portfolios. Q: So tell us about your early days and how you developed your approach to analyzing stocks and managing money. A: Sure. I've always been interested in the markets, even bef...

AUTHOR: Technical Analysis, Inc.DATE: NOV1994

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• SIDEBAR: Calculating The Relative Strength-MACD Crossover

  ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...SIDEBAR: Calculating The Relative Strength-MACD Crossover The relative strength ratio-MACD crossover indicator in this example uses the daily closing price of Boeing (BA) compared with the daily closing price of the S&P 500 index. The first day's period is January 1, 1994....

AUTHOR: Technical Analysis, Inc.DATE: NOV1994

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• SIDEBAR: Calculating the Coppock Curve in SuperCharts

  ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...SIDEBAR: Calculating the Coppock Curve in SuperCharts The Coppock curve in Figure 1 of the article ""The Coppock Curve"" by Elliot Middleton, labeled ""CoppockAnnual"" takes the essence of Coppock's original formulation and puts it in modern mathematics. Technicians have found that instead of using 11 and 14 month lags, a single annual lagged percentage change of the index works almost as well....

AUTHOR: Technical Analysis, Inc.DATE: NOV1994

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• The Bollinger Band And Trend by John Forman

  ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Bollinger Band And Trend by John Forman Here are ways to use Bollinger Bands to judge the trending tendency of markets, using the distance between the upper and lower bands. Never be afraid to look at an old technical indicator in a new way. In my daily study of the markets, ranging from fixed income and foreign exchange to energy futures, I experiment with old favorites in an effort to find the best combination for my work. Recently, I made an observation that gave me yet another tool, one that allows me to pick out trends, or the lack thereof, easier than I could previously. Bollinge...

AUTHOR: John FormanDATE: NOV1994

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• The Coppock Curve by Elliott Middleton

  ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Coppock Curve by Elliott Middleton The Coppock formula was introduced in Barron's in 1962, devised by a San Antonio, TX-based technician named Edwin Sedgwick Coppock. Since then, the Coppock oscillator has been adopted and adapted by technicians around the world. Here's how to use the Coppock curve to recognize major bottoms in the stock market. We are creatures of habit. We judge the world relative to what we have experienced. If we're shopping for a mortgage and rates have been in the teens (as they were in the early 1980s) and then drop to 10%, we are elated. If, however, they've bee...

AUTHOR: Elliott MiddletonDATE: NOV1994

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• The Eight-Year Presidential Election Pattern by Adam White

  ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Eight-Year Presidential Election Pattern by Adam White That seasonal patterns exist cannot be denied. But there may be patterns within those patterns, depending on how you look at them. The four-year Presidential cycle is a prime example or are we only looking at half the pattern there? Here's a new look at the Presidential cycle. People plan, project and predict the future using past trends in most everything they do, from whether to grab an umbrella in the morning all the way to timing a turn through oncoming traffic. But how far can the practice of relying on past trends be taken whe...

AUTHOR: Adam WhiteDATE: NOV1994

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• The Relative Strength Ratio-MACD Crossover by Gilbert Raff

  ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Relative Strength Ratio-Macd Crossover by Gilbert Raff Here's an indicator to identify positive and negative trading signals for stocks and mutual funds. The heart of the indicator involves applying an oscillator to the relative strength line. Trading signals result from identifying strong relative strength, which is a positive indication, while weak relative strength is considered a negative sign. Here's how to lower the volatility of returns by applying the popular moving average convergence/divergence (MACD). Most stocks and mutual funds are more volatile than the Standard & Poor's 5...

AUTHOR: Gilbert RaffDATE: NOV1994

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Traders' Tips

AUTHOR: Technical Analysis, Inc.DATE: NOV1994

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• Using Visual Imagery in Trading by Ari Kiev, M.D.

  ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Using Visual Imagery in Trading by Ari Kiev, M.D. This psychiatrist, who conducts seminars on the psychology of trading, discusses the use of visual imagery to maximize trading results. Experience is governed by thoughts, especially those that occur with strong visual images. If you relax and close your eyes, thoughts and images will arise continually and naturally in your mind. Listen to the sounds from the machines and people in your environment. Now listen to the sounds beyond the room. Now listen to the sound of your breathing. Try to picture the source of the sounds. As you do this, not...

AUTHOR: Ari Kiev, M.D.DATE: NOV1994