NOV 1984 STOCKS & COMMODITIES Magazine

Article Archive For NOV1984

CORNERSTONE OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: The Dow Theory by Timothy A. Maguire

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...CORNERSTONE OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: The Dow Theory by Timothy A. Maguire ""The necessity of the times, more than ever, calls for our utmost circumspection, deliberation, fortitude, and perseverance."" (Samuel Adams, 1771) Historical Perspective Charles Henry Dow, founder and first editor of the Wall Street Journal, laid the foundations for technical analysis of stock trends over eighty years ago. During his thirteen year tenure as editor, from 1889 to 1902, Dow based his observations of the stock market upon interactions between the market averages he is credited with inventing. Although tod...

AUTHOR: Timothy A. MaguireDATE: NOV1984

Financial Futures by John Sweeney

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Financial Futures by John Sweeney When you're on top, don't believe it. There's nothing like winning to upset your equilibrium. You can win--and still lose. This article is a blow-by-blow account of two trades that were unrelated but, through me, managed to befoul each other. I still think back on these events with anguish. ""I was right!"" I keep telling myself. But in the end, I went wrong and, since this series is about novices' mistakes, I'll tell you the story. It may do you some good, it has me. Think back to late 1983. What's happening in the financial complex? Well, bonds are backing...

AUTHOR: John SweeneyDATE: NOV1984

Forecasting With Maximum Entropy by Jack K. Hutson and Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D.

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Forecasting With Maximum Entropy by Jack K. Hutson and Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D. The most obvious ability that stock or commodity buyers and sellers wish for is foresight. If there was a method or technique that we could use to predict what tomorrow will bring in the market, all our problems would be solved. There are people everywhere that believe one prediction method or another has some validity in forecasting market behavior. I will not claim to know a method that is better than everyone else's nor claim that our method is better than all others. But, I will say, ""This forecasting method ...

AUTHOR: Jack K. Hutson and Anthony WarrenDATE: NOV1984

AUTHOR: Technical Analysis, Inc.DATE: NOV1984

Investment Software Benefits by Gerald Frankel

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Investment Software Benefits by Gerald Frankel Is there a computer system for the professional technical analyst? In this article, we will take a candid look at a typical technical analyst's experiences with computers and software. Finding a computer system that will do what you want--and maybe a few things you haven't thought of yet--is something like buying a car or stereo. You're dazzled by all the things it promises to do, but if you wait a while the next model promises to be even Jazzier. Both fear of computers and an unrealistic faith in their worldly powers can frustrate an analyst's e...

AUTHOR: Gerald FrankelDATE: NOV1984

Momentum Indicators and Market Cycles by John Nicholas

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Momentum Indicators and Market Cycles by John Nicholas The techniques used for stock and commodity analysis range from the naively simple to the stunningly complex. Some are based on sound mathematical and philosophical principles while others border on witchcraft. This article discusses one major indicator and how it relates to price movement. We often hear the markets described as ""overbought"" or ""oversold"". Usually ""oscillators"" are used to help define these conditions. These same ""oscillators"" were called ""momentum"" by Larry Williams. In statistics, they are termed ""moving per...

AUTHOR: John NicholasDATE: NOV1984

AUTHOR: Technical Analysis, Inc.DATE: NOV1984

SIDEBAR: Trend again? by Jesse H. Thompson

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Trend again? by Jesse H. Thompson If you look closely at the method and approach ascribed to such market masters as Dow, Wyckoff, Livermore, Gann, Dunnigan and Jackson, you find trend stated as a primary consideration in all of their market operations. A philosophy which has as its emphasis the definition of trend and its goal as trading in harmony with trend, carries with it the great advantage of probability. The momentum of an established trend is not an advantage to be overlooked. Franklin P. Jackson typifies this attitude in his 1951 course The Golden Harvest:...

AUTHOR: Jesse H. ThompsonDATE: NOV1984

Speculation Philosophies by Jesse H. Thompson

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Speculation Philosophies by Jesse H. Thompson ""A great thorough-going man does not confine himself to one school, but combines many schools, as well as reads and listens to the arguments of many predecessors, thereby slowly forming a style of his own...,"" Kuo Hsi, artist-priest, 11th Century China Today's overcapacity in processing information fuels great opportunity in many ways, but where reward treads, risk follows. And from the vantage point of the speculator, risk deserves the greater focus because it is human nature to focus on reward with too little attention on risk. The old adage,...

AUTHOR: Jesse H. ThompsonDATE: NOV1984

Stock Market Business Cycle by Bill Dunbar

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stock Market Business Cycle by Bill Dunbar Bottom fishing should be peaceful. If you're a bottom fisherman you like to recline in an open boat in the cool of the morning or sit with your back against a mossy bank in the gathering dusk and watch the leaves drift by. Sure, you want to catch fish, but not the athletic kind that makes it a big exercise. Too much bother. Chasing high flyers and hot tips is for the jocks who think it's great kicks to pitch around on the brimy, trolling for marlin. True, you can't make money in the stock market without experiencing some anxiety but you'll probably...

AUTHOR: Bill DunbarDATE: NOV1984