JAN 1983 STOCKS & COMMODITIES Magazine

Article Archive For JAN1983

A MiniGuide to Fourier Spectrum Analysis by ANTHONY WARREN, PH.D./STAFF WRITER

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A MiniGuide to Fourier Spectrum Analysis by ANTHONY WARREN, PH.D./STAFF WRITER The basic idea behind Fourier Analysis of time series is to decompose the data into a sum of sinusoids of varying cycle length, each cycle being a fraction of a common or fundamental cycle length. (For example, figure 1 shows a time series consisting of a linear trend and two major cycles, and figure 2 shows the decomposition into component sinusoids.) Originally, cyclic analysis was applied to physical phenomena to describe the behavior of complex vibrations, as for example, the multiple vibrations created by pluc...

AUTHOR: Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D.DATE: JAN1983

ARIMA Forecasting by ERIC WEISS, PH.D.

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...ARIMA Forecasting by ERIC WEISS, PH.D. In the October 1982 of Technical Analysis, I discussed Autoregressive-Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and why it is such an accurate forecasting technique. In this article, I'll discuss how to build an ARIMA model using typical software and present some examples from my program for microcomputers such as the Apple ][, EASI/ ARIMA. Most other ARIMA programs running on large mainframe computers use a similar technique, although the commands are a little different. The approach I like best was developed and popularized by Box and Jenkins at The Universit...

AUTHOR: ERIC WEISS, Ph.D.DATE: JAN1983

Fast Fourier Transform by ANTHONY WARREN, PH.D./STAFF WRITER

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Fast Fourier Transform EDITOR'S NOTE: To improve program readability the subroutine listed here has been enhanced by a BASIC language list formatter. We hope that this will prove helpful. The assignment statement 'LET' and indentations are not required for most BASIC interpreters. The program flow-of-control is much clearer by observing that loop operations, such as, FOR-NEXT are indented so the FOR and NEXT are directly above one another. This program has been provided, to subscribers on record as of January 31, 1983, FREE of charge, ready to run from within the Compu Trac system. One need ...

AUTHOR: Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D.DATE: JAN1983

In This Issue.

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...In This Issue. The Intra-day Analyst is a computer system for technical analysis of the market during the trading day. We regret that an article describing this system was not available to meet our January printing deadline. Typically, articles and advertising must be received 30 days prior to the month that they will appear. The Intra-Day Analysts systems was designed by the same individuals who developed the Compu Trac System. It has been almost two years since its first release and is now a major stand-alone trading tool. With this issue we intitiate a new ongoing forum for exchange of st...

AUTHOR: Technical Analysis, Inc.DATE: JAN1983

Letters to Technical Analysis

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Letters to Technical Analysis We have received hundreds of inquiries about Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities and are endeavoring to answer ALL via mail or through this column. The effort involved has been a strain on our meager resources, so bear with us. Please feel free to write about anything that you would like to know more about or pass along to the rest of us. Dear Jack, I like your ""Technical Analysis"" publication, the first copy of which I received at the TAG seminar in Toronto . . . This letter is my pledge that I will subscribe .. . I'm enthused about the potential fo...

AUTHOR: Technical Analysis, Inc.DATE: JAN1983

Moving Averages

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Moving Averages In our studies of stock or commodity time series data, i.e. a stream of successive daily closes (highs, lows, volume), we are constantly reminded of moving averages and their application. A moving average is one of the simplest and most often used smoothing or filtering methods available. All that is required is that one choose a number of days, N, that you intend to average your data by and plot that average coincident with the last day of data. MATHEMATICALLY:...

AUTHOR: Technical Analysis, Inc.DATE: JAN1983

SIDEBAR: GLOSSARY

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...GLOSSARY ROUNDING ERROR -- When numbers are rounded many times. errors creep into the result. For example, 2.4+8.4=5.8 which rounds to 6, but if we round 2.4 and 3.4 we get 2+3=5. TREND--A straight line pattern to prices. This may be clouded by price variations above and below the trend line. AUTOREGRESSIVE--One today in terms of past days. The atuoregressive part of an ARIMA model uses previous days prices to predict today's price. The ""previous days"" could be just yesterday, or yesterday and the day before yesterday etc....

AUTHOR: Technical Analysis, Inc.DATE: JAN1983

SIDEBAR: RESEARCH in Progress:

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...RESEARCH in Progress: To make this research periodical a viable and useful tool to the investor, we plan to offer a broad spectrum of information. The centerpiece of each issue will be feature articles on specific numerical or graphical technical analysis techniques with emphasis on application to trading stocks or commodities. ADAPTIVE FILTER: A short-term forecasting technique that computes optimum weighted moving averages is concurrently under development for use with stocks or commodity historical data. This study will calculate an optimum weighting of past observations (weighted moving ...

AUTHOR: Technical Analysis, Inc.DATE: JAN1983

Technical Analysis Information. by JACK K. HUTSON, EDITOR

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Technical Analysis Information. by JACK K. HUTSON, EDITOR INTRODUCTION We would like to take this opportunity to thank all of our subscribers for their encouragement and support, and Tim Slater, of COMPU TRAC, who made it all possible. The initial set up of a magazine has proven to be an interesting experience, one that I am sure any masochist would enjoy. The idea first came to mind almost two years ago shortly after the first COMPU TRAC seminar (Feb. '81) in New Orleans. I did not attend the seminar, but did have an opportunity to listen to tapes of the conference. One of the members at th...

AUTHOR: Jack K. HutsonDATE: JAN1983

Using Fourier by JACK K. HUTSON

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Using Fourier by JACK K. HUTSON Joseph Fourier (1768-1830) (pronounced ""fooryay'') was a French mathematician and inventor of Fourier analysis. His work helped show the way to expressing periodic curves or functions by a sum of sines and cosines. These simple functions are easy for our computer to evaluate and project into the future. Many natural physical phenomena are oscillatory, that is repeating over and over again, much like the Markets. The Markets are not a function in the mathematical sense, but do seem to go up and down over and over again. During the late 1960's a number of Fast ...

AUTHOR: Jack K. HutsonDATE: JAN1983