Article Archive For
DEC1992
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A Spreadsheet For Time Ratio Analysis by Robert Miner
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A Spreadsheet For Time Ratio Analysis by Robert Miner
Traders using ratio of time cycle analysis will find this spreadsheet version of determining target dates of possible cycle highs or lows helpful. The author discusses the use of projected target dates, along with an example of a trade.
As W. D. Gann described more than 70 years ago, markets make swing highs or lows in proportion
(relation) to past market cycles. My March 1991 STOCKS & COMMODITIES article, ""Time as a trading tool,""
described the theory and methodology of projecting proportions of past cycles forward in time to deter
nin...
AUTHOR: Robert MinerDATE: DEC1992
AUTHOR: Nauzer J. Balsara, Ph.D.DATE: DEC1992
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Bond Yield Diagnosis by John Kean
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Bond Yield Diagnosis by John Kean
Inflation is usually the first choice for analyzing the forces driving the direction of bond yields, but systems analyst John Kean illustrates that charting government borrowing can help determine the trend of interest rates.
Bond yields are one financial factor that stands out from the rest in importance. They are a critical item
in economic growth, have a particularly strong influence on stock prices and foreign exchange rates and
are often used as a metaphor for a country's overall economic and political health. Although bond yields
are acknowledged to be...
AUTHOR: John KeanDATE: DEC1992
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Contrarian Thought by John Blasic
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Contrarian Thought by John Blasic
As a rule of thumb, the crowd is always wrong at the top or at the bottom, but how does one gain insight into what the crowd is doing? John Blasic discusses some basics of measuring crowd psychology and using it in contrarian strategy.
Contrary thinking is an art form that should be included in every technician's arsenal. It is a single
concept that comprises many individual parts. Contrary analysis studies market extremes as a form of
psychological analysis, emphasizing the principle that whenever the crowd agrees on anything, they must
be wrong. How can tr...
AUTHOR: John BlasicDATE: DEC1992
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Gold And The CRB Index by John J. Murphy
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Gold And The CRB Index by John J. Murphy
John Murphy, the leading proponent of intermarket analysis, closes the current circle of tradable interrelationships by examining how gold and the CRB index interact.
The gold market plays a key role in intermarket analysis. Last time, I discussed gold's tendency to trade
in the opposite direction of the U.S. dollar. Falling U.S. interest rates, which are usually associated with a
weak dollar, at some point begin to reawaken inflation pressures. One of the first places that inflation
begins to manifest itself is in a rising gold market. Because of gol...
AUTHOR: John J. MurphyDATE: DEC1992
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Letters To S&C by Technical Analysis, Inc.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Letters To S&C by Technical Analysis, Inc.
GANN-DO ATTITUDE
Editor,
January's article, ""The Gann Quarterly Chart,"" was the best article I have read in nine months. I can use it
for buying and selling mutual funds for long-term investing.
I would appreciate more articles simply written with actual buy and sell dates for long and intermediate
investing.
Could you explain the difference between a 50-day moving average and a 10-week moving average?
DAVID PORTNEY Staten Island, NY
The moving average, a mathematical procedure to smooth or eliminate the fluctuations in data,
emphasizes the dir...
AUTHOR: Technical Analysis, Inc.DATE: DEC1992
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Looking At Momentum With TRIX by Ed Downs
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Looking At Momentum With TRIX by Ed Downs
The TRIX oscillator has unique properties that make it ideal for identifying direction of trend as well as cyclical entry points. Last month, Ed Downs showed us how various oscillators can be tuned to the personality of an individual stock through optimization. This month, he'll explain the use of a derivative technique using the TRIX oscillator.
If you smooth an exponential moving average (EMA) I of the closing price twice (taking the EMA of the
EMA of the EMA) and then plot the percentage change per period on the y-axis, you'll have one version of
...
AUTHOR: Ed DownsDATE: DEC1992
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Market Turns And Continuation Moves With The Tick Index by Tim Ord
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Market Turns And Continuation Moves With The Tick Index by Tim Ord
The tick index is a little-known indicator that can be used to indicate short-term stock market reversals and provide trend confirmation. Short-term traders should consider using the tick index, for though this indicator does not always tell you a story, it can help alert you to overbought and oversold situations.
A little over a year ago, I wrote an article in which I described a buy and sell method using the tick
index on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The tick index is the difference between the number of
issues tradin...
AUTHOR: Tim OrdDATE: DEC1992
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Multiple-Length Stochastics by Stuart Meibuhr
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Multiple-Length Stochastics by Stuart Meibuhr
Plotting different indicators together and combining their analyses is a popular analytical method for timing trades. But how about using one indicator and varying its parameters? Stuart Meibuhr takes stochastics and varies the length of the lookback for trades of different time frames.
The popular concept ""if one is good, two are better"" has often been used by technicians in the selection
of indicators in the belief that combining the signals of different indicators is a more reliable strategy than
following just one. But this idea has rarely...
AUTHOR: Stuart MeibuhrDATE: DEC1992
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On Index Funds by Stephen Littauer
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...On Index Funds by Stephen Littauer
Do mutual funds underperform the market? Statistics would indicate so. Index funds may better suit investor needs.
Most mutual funds underperform the market. Over the past 10 years, CDA/Wiesenberger Mutual
Funds Update reports that 356 mutual funds with an investment objective of long-term growth had an
average annual return of 15.8%. The equivalent annual return for the Standard & Poor's 500 index during
the same period was 19.1%. Was the difference of 3.3% a fluke or statistical error? Let's look at figures
from additional sources.
Morningstar Mutual Fun...
AUTHOR: Stephen LittauerDATE: DEC1992
AUTHOR: Technical Analysis, Inc.DATE: DEC1992
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SIDEBAR: CALCULATING VIDYA by Technical Analysis, Inc.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...CALCULATING VIDYA by Technical Analysis, Inc.
The variable index dynamic moving average (VIDYA) builds on the concept of the exponential moving
average (EMA). While the EMA uses a constant (alpha) to smooth today's data, the VIDYA adjusts the alpha
according to the data's volatility. The volatility is measured by taking the ratio of a 30-day standard
deviation to a reference standard deviation ....
AUTHOR: Technical Analysis, Inc.DATE: DEC1992
AUTHOR: Technical Analysis, Inc.DATE: DEC1992
AUTHOR: Technical Analysis, Inc.DATE: DEC1992
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Smart Stops by Tushar S. Chande
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Smart Stops by Tushar S. Chande
Setting stops is a fine art, whether you trade one contract or a thousand. The challenge in setting stops is to participate in long moves without getting shaken out of the trade by market volatility. A variable-index dynamic average (Vidya) may be used to place trailing stops that adapt to market volatility, which combines enough sensitivity to price changes with flexibility to fit your trading needs. Using this combination, in fact, may well provide an extremely profitable stop for the intermediate-term trader.
Once a trade has been initiated, most traders w...
AUTHOR: Tushar S. Chande, Ph.D.DATE: DEC1992
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Talking With "Turtle" Russell Sands by Thom Hartle
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Talking With ""Turtle"" Russell Sands by Thom Hartle
We talked with ""turtle"" Russell Sands about the importance of risk management, following the trend and understanding crowd behavior.
How did you end up becoming one of the turtles?
Believe it or not, I was reading the help-wanted section in The New York Times and I saw this ad. I don't
think it was very specific at all. It just said ""prominent Chicago trading firm looking for people that they
can train in their methods"" and went on to say that they were willing to train and bankroll you. So I sent
in a resume and they sent back this q...
AUTHOR: Thom HartleDATE: DEC1992SUBJECT: Interview
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Traders' Tips by Technical Analysis, Inc.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Traders' Tips by Technical Analysis, Inc.
METASTOCK PROFESSIONAL AND CANDLESTICKS
Candlestick charts are still new to traders in the U.S. Here's a method to assist you in identifying specific
candlestick patterns in MetaStock Professional.
Candlestick patterns use the open, high, low and closing prices, and so your data will need all four to
correctly plot a candlestick pattern. The opening and close for the day define the body of the candlestick,
while low and high are the thin lines that extend beyond the body. The thin lines are called the shadows.
If the market closes above the opening,...
AUTHOR: Technical Analysis, Inc.DATE: DEC1992
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Trading The Santa Claus Rally by Michael D. Sheimo
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Trading The Santa Claus Rally by Michael D. Sheimo
'Tis the season to be jolly and make a profit. What could be finer? Michael Sheimo explores the whys and wherefores of this seasonal phenomenon.
Holiday rallies in the stock market are a fact of life. Various theories abound as to why they occur:
institutional traders don't want any loose cash sitting around for a long weekend, trading houses want to
maintain optimism for the holiday, investors are in a buying mood, a culmination of technical influences
come together near holidays. The cause of a holiday rally can be as simple as institutio...
AUTHOR: Michael D. SheimoDATE: DEC1992