## Contents For OCT1987

• ### Money supply (M2): A leading economic indicator by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Money supply (M2): A leading economic indicator by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D. I want to show you an analytical technique that you can use to estimate the probability of future price increases or decreases. I'll use the money supply figures (M2) from 1948-1978 as an example, but you can apply this to any consistent, continuous series of prices. Along the way, we'll learn some interesting things about the behavior of the money supply. Fundamentalists (and possibly some technical analysts) seem to believe that economic indicators which provide an indirect measure of aggregate supply and demand m...

• ### Point/ Counterpoint By Clifford S. Sherry, Ph.D.

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Point/ Counterpoint By Clifford S. Sherry, Ph.D. I believe there are some major flaws in the statistical reasoning in Curtis McKallip's article ""Investigating Chart Patterns Using Markov Analysis"" (STOCKS & COMMODITIES December 1986). Using the raw numbers from his transition matrix, I believe that the observed probabilities for the pairs of states should be as follows: p1,1 = 58/309 = 0.1877; p1,2 = 15/309 = 0.0485. Thus the probability of a 1, 2 or 3 is 78/309 = 0.2524; 139/309 = 0.4498 and 92/309 = 0.2977, respectively. If we assume independence, the probability of a 1,1 is equal to p1 ...

• ### Profitability of selected technical indicators by Thomas P. Drinka and Steven L. Kille

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...In previous issues, these authors reported the results of applying moving averages, momentum, Williams' %R, Wilder's Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Wilder's Directional Movement Indicator (DMI) to Chicago Board of Trade corn and long-term U.S. Treasury bond futures, COMEX silver futures, and Chicago Mercantile Exchange IMM Eurodollar futures. In this article, they report similar information for Standard & Poor's 500 futures traded at the International Monetary Market of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. By Thomas P. Drinka & Steven L. Kille, page 288-291....

• ### Serving a trading apprenticeship The Wyckoff method of trading stocks part 13 by Jack K. Hutson

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Serving a trading apprenticeship The Wyckoff method of trading stocks part 13 by Jack K. Hutson Anyone studying the stock market intends to remove themselves from the ranks of the public that dabbles with luck as their foremost rule of operation. A true student of the market doesn't graduate into actual trading before completing a self-imposed apprenticeship where experience becomes the teacher. Experience hones practical skills such as the timing of trades and also builds the mental attitude that allows a trader or investor to think clearly and follow an analysis to its conclusion. If you, ...

• ### Spread Investing Tools of the trade part 2 by Frank Taucher

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Spread Investing Tools of the trade part 2 by Frank Taucher In part one, I discussed some of the pitfalls of traditional studies on the seasonality of spreading and how I attempted to correct them in my spread trading. The objective of the program is to develop a diversified portfolio of many spreads that can be used throughout the year for investment purposes. I concluded by reviewing the details of a long CBT wheat/short soybeans spread trade....

• ### Want to try something HOT!? by John Sweeney

ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...CF-DM from J.C. Productions. By John Sweeney Some systems are so active it could give a guy a heart attack. J.C. Productions has put together one of the most active and breathtaking trading systems I've run across. Of course, I haven't seen everything in the world, but of the trading systems I have used, this one is unique. To begin with, like a lot of floor traders and senior traders, CF-DM often trades against the market. Oh, it has its ""I'm wrong"" points when it will turn around and go the other way, but generally it will hold onto a stance with bulldog tenacity until normal market osci...