ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Forecasting Commodity Prices Using ARIMA by ERIC WEISS, Ph.D. Back in December 1981, J. Louis Anon wrote an article in Commodities called ""Catch Short Term Profits using ARIMA'' and touched off a minor revolution in forecasting commodity and stock option prices with his claims that ARIMA could forecast prices within 1.5 percent. I had written an ARIMA package for statisticians who have an Apple II (or III), which was the only one for a microcomputer. Anon learned of this and referred customers who did not want to use a large mainframe computer (such as the one you can buy time on from his e...
BY: ERIC WEISS, Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Handling Market Reactions by JOHN E. ROSENSTOCK All markets exhibiting prolonged price trends invariably have reactions against the trend. These reactions can be of short or long duration and can retrace small or large portions of the preceding swing. They can be very sharp reversals or have periods of congestion prior to the retracement. The question is: How are these reactions anticipated, measured, and taken advantage of? One very excellent method used in my computer analysis of market reactions is the momentum concept. This theory is based on market velocity and can be aptly described as ...
BY: John E. Rosenstock
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...INTRODUCTION: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of Stocks and Commodities Our primary consideration of an article is whether it teaches, describes or illustrates an applicable trading method or technique. Also, information about the use of chart or numerical methods is examined to improve ones probability of having a successful trade. (Prospective authors please feel free to include any charts, graphs or computer programs that would help in presentation. The emphasis is on application of existing trading techniques and interpretation of computer programs used to trade Stocks and Commodities. Trader observat...
BY: Technical Analysis, Inc.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Integrated Systems Approach To Technical Commodity Analysis by JOHN E. ROSENSTOCK when I first became interested in commodity markets, it was my great fortune to read the works of and speak with several of the most lucid teachers of market science and strategy. Each of these teachers had methods which were profoundly logical in their approach. In the early stages of my learning curve (which in this business never seems to flatten out), I became aware of two trading tools which provided me with the idea of a structure that lead to my ""ultimate commodity trading tool."" One of these was the Si...
BY: John E. Rosenstock
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Mathematician's Viewpoint. by ANTHONY WARREN PH.D. In this initial article the author will describe his viewpoint on technical analysis and the value of computer based algorithms for enhancing one's chances of success in stock or commodity trading. We will also outline a planned series of articles covering topics such as Fourier Analysis for Fun and Profit, Data Filtering for the Masses, Do Trend Channels Really Exist?, and The Threefold Path to Forecasting. (Titles are Fictitious) The main problem of trading is in developing systematic rules for managing the unpredictability of the marketpl...
BY: Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Risk Management by JOHN E. ROSENSTOCK The portfolio approach to commodity trading is a big selling point for commodity funds. (""Portfolio approach"" is diversifying and spreading risk through a completely mechanical trend analysis.) However, history has shown that the mechanical trend following systems that maintain positions in all commodities all the time tend to generate heavy commissions and sustain unnecessary losses when prices enter narrow trading ranges. Trend following by definition is a lagging indicator. In a trading range, prices move back and forth, violently changing direction ...
BY: John E. Rosenstock
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The New Ticker-Tape by CHARLES F. KRINKE THERE IS ONLY ONE SIDE OF THE MARKET AND IT IS NOT THE BULL SIDE OR THE BEAR SIDE, BUT THE RIGHT SIDE. --JESSE LIVERMORE These words from one of the world's great traders are even more appropriate today as we have recently seen the largest increase in the Dow Jones Average in one single day in history. This day, August 17, 1982, the Dow shot up 38.81 points and The Wall Street Journal described the trading as a 'buying panic'. With a flood of buying pushing the volume to more than 92 million shares, the new S&P futures contract was limit up at its 500...
BY: CHARLES F. KRINKE
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...To Trade or Not to Trade (or how I done it) by JACK K. HUTSON The format of sharing trading experiences is an easy way for Technical Analysis Group members, as well as others, to tell how they used chart work and technical analysis in the day to day trading of stocks or commodities. One of my approaches to trading is as follows: This story begins around the first of the year, 1982. Pork Bellies had just made one of its abrupt ninety degree reversals which started a spectacular Bull market. At that time I was attracted to the chart because the reversal was so sharp -- and the only side of the ...
BY: Jack K. Hutson
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...What Else Does It Do? by STEVE ROSS More and more people are investing in personal computers. But personal computers are often purchased with only one or two real applications in mind. Many personal computer owners are not programmers, and have no intention of learning to program now, or in the future. As a programmer, I can sympathize with anyone who would rather not. Good programming requires a tremendous investment of time, and frustration. The frustration never seems to completely go away. The question many non-programmers are asking themselves is what else can that nicely packaged machi...
BY: STEVE ROSS