ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Applying ARIMA Forecasts by ERIC WEISS, Ph.D. ""Applying ARIMA Forecasts"" is an article continuing a series started in the October (82) and the January (83) issues of Technical Analysis. AutoRegressive-lntegrated Moving Average(ARIMA) is a forecasting methodology based upon the techniques described by Box and Jenkins in their book: Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control, published by Holden-Day, 1976, 2nd ed. With understanding and time one may construct a model of a discrete statistical time series, such as the markets, that will forecast the future with known probable error. To be...
BY: ERIC WEISS, Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Data Filtering Methods For Technical Analysis by ANTHONY WARREN, Ph.D./Technical Analysis staff writer Data filtering methods such as moving averages are quite prevalent in many trading systems. In this article we will discuss a methodology for selecting appropriate data filters based on Fourier spectrum analysis, and the basics on how to use smoothing filters for trading decisions. In the course of this article we will attempt to familiarize the reader with data filtering from a frequency domain point of view (i.e. cyclic). The reader need not be concerned with the mathematics of Fourier ana...
BY: Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Fibonnacci Cycles by TUCKER J. EMMETT The growth in popularity of my own technical application of the Fibonnacci mathematical series to the futures markets the past ten years has been fairly remarkable, considering the amount of homework and trading discipline requisite in the approach. But the predictive accuracy and logic behind this technical system, along with the method of checks and balances obtained from it, make the effort well worthwhile. The Fibonnacci series is the basis of the ""Elliot Wave"" and various forms of Elliot theory. While Elliot theory is espoused by many analysts, it...
BY: Tucker J. Emmet
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Finite Impulse Response Filter by ANTHONY WARREN, Ph.D. with JACK K. HUTSON Figure 1 and 2 show a comparison of computer output using Fourier analysis Power and then Amplitude plots. It can be seen that the Power Spectrum plot, which is Amplitude squared, makes it very easy to discern which cycles are significant and which are not. The Power Spectrum suggests that cycles with periods of less than 20 days may not be important, in the long move. Figure 3 is an example of computer output plotted from the following Finite Impulse Response (FIR) Filter subroutine using a Hanning weighted moving av...
BY: Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D. and Jack Hutson
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Letters to Technical Analysis This column is our means of communicating with our subscribers and serves as an outlet for questions and answers. Please feel free to write about anything that you would like to know more (or less) about or pass along to the rest of us. We all run across trading techinques, services and products that have proven to be useful to some degree under different market conditions. Without a constant source of new ideas and subject matter coming from our readers this magazine would not exist. Each issue is designed to hold at least one idea or clarify one subject that CO...
BY: Technical Analysis, Inc.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Authors' Biographies Tucker J. Emmett, Vice President Trading and Research Anspacher & Associates, Inc. Tucker Emmett is a cum laude graduate from Harvard University where he studied mathematics and economics. In 1970 he was awarded the Juris Doctor degree from the University of Virginia Law School. He is a registered representative in securities and commodities and is a member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. At Anspacher he is currently involved in research on the application of regressional models to commodity price trends. He also writes a bi-weekly review published by Anspacher on gr...
BY: Technical Analysis, Inc.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Mark 1 (1944) Conceived by Howard H. Aiken of Harvard University in 1937, the first automatic digital computer was built by International Business Machines in 1944. An automatic sequence controlled calculator, it was first used for computing ballistic data. The computer could do three additions per second, working as fast as 20 people on calculators. The Mark 1 took up a lot of space; it was 51 ft. long and 8 ft. high, with 750,000 parts....
BY: Technical Analysis, Inc.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Programming Conventions for BASIC Technical Analysis subroutines: NO Input/Output routine is provided, only a generic BASIC computational subroutine containing the fundamental technical analysis is provided. This subroutine should, with only minor changes, work on any computer using the BAS C language. INPUT data (daily, weekly, monthly, etc.) must be provided by the user (i.e. YOU) in the following matrix format: X(7,NUM) where...
BY: Technical Analysis, Inc.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Univac 1 (1951) Delivered to the government in 1951 to help with the census, it cut human work hours from 200,000 to 28,000. On October 3, 1963, the computer was retired after 73,000 hours of operation and is now on display at the Smithsonian Institution....
BY: Technical Analysis, Inc.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Evolving State of Technical Analysis Leafing through a back issue of ""Success Farming"" magazine the other day, I was quite surprised to run across a fairly sophisticated article on the technical analysis of some of the meat and grain futures. The purpose of the article was apparently to educate and to provide a method of calculating hedging levels for some of its subscribers. In fact, some of the Midwestern farmers I know, use words like ""Elliot wave or 50% retracement"" just as easily as they use ""heifer or grain combine."" At first, it sounded somewhat strange to me, hearing all thi...
BY: Technical Analysis, Inc.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Head and Shoulders Formation by JESSE H. THOMPSON/Technical Analysis staff writer Technical analysis as it is applied today to the anticipation and projection of impending price movement of stocks or futures markets might be broken down into three major areas of study. These are: 1) The study of price activity itself 2) the study of derivatives of price and 3) the study of internal indicators. The study of price activity itself is generally of older vintage. The book, ""Technical Analysis of Stock Trends"" by Edwards and Magee is a study of market formations and trends within this area. ...
BY: Jesse H. Thompson
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Livermore System by JESSE H. THOMPSON/Technical Analysis staff writer Livermore is one of those names you might hear floating around among the chatter and ticks inside the local brokerage office. Or maybe you will catch a reference to him in some obscure article or book. Just as the markets of the various exchanges are often mystifying, so too are many of the historical characters surrounding the markets. Jesse L. Livermore was one of those characters, passing in and out around the Wall Street of the l890-1940 period. The classic ""rags to riches"" stereotype of this period. Humble begin...
BY: Jesse H. Thompson