ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Contrary opinion by Henry Van Kessel A contrarian is a person ahead of the times. He sees things others don't. Like a master chess player, he observes more pieces of the situation, looks further on the horizon. When the situation is right, he plays a big hand because he has done his homework and is not relying on anyone's opinions. The few lead, the many follow. But the followers don't know who the real leaders are. Rather than trying to find the leaders (who appear too elusive) one popular idea is that, since the followers are statistically losers, perhaps it would be best to follow the fol...
BY: Henry Van Kessel
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Creating charts with Lotus by John O'Donahue Those who have used a personal computer for technical analysis of the markets probably are familiar with Lotus 1-2-3, and recognize what a powerful tool it can be. It is particularly good for evaluating new indicators or working out how to apply an idea to a given problem. One of the most useful functions of Lotus is its graphics package. I frequently use it as a general purpose utility to graph the results of other programs written in languages which are more efficient at processing data, but poor at plotting the results. After all, where else ca...
BY: John O'Donahue
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Debugging and the virtues of experimentation Part 6 by Jim Summers, Ph.D. In last month's column we discussed the use of {Put} and @Index(...) menu commands in Lotus 1-2-3. These can increase significantly program speed by avoiding cursor movement and redundant range names during processing. We used these to update the formula which calculates the trading range (TR1) shown in Figure 1. The TR1 portion of J. Welles Wilder's DMI is a complex formula and very susceptible to typing errors. This month I'll show you how to debug complex formulas before we go on to develop the TR1 loop. Are you ch...
BY: Jim Summers, Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...If the boss only knew technical analysis by Vincent Cosentino When a company official, director or a large stockholder buys stock in the company, this has to be a sign that green grass and blue skies are ahead. After all, who knows the company better than the people in charge of running it? Virtually every company has incentive plans to motivate the top officials. Included in these packages are such perks as stock options and rights that allow the official to buy company stock below market and realize an instant profit. Sometimes, the company even provides a low-cost loan to help the officer...
BY: Vincent Cosentino
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Letters to S&C Getting to know you Editor, I recently purchased the set of tapes from the TAG IX CompuTrac seminar held last September. I would like to know more about your ""Technical Analysis Magazine"" and some of the articles from past issues, in whatever form they may be available, that you mentioned. Listening to the tapes, I must say that your presentation was one of the better organized and clearly laid out. I believe I almost understand what you were saying--from a two-hour tape, that is frightening. I'd better learn more. STEVE PAINTER Aurora, CO On with the show Editor, I ve...
BY: Technical Analysis, Inc.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...More trend detection by Arthur A. Merill Last month I described four methods of trend detection: eyeball, filtered waves, zigzags and support/resistance levels. Here are seven more: Moving average This indicator is rather limited when you consider the construction of a moving average. For a new point on a ten-week average, for example, you add the current data unit to the total of the past ten weeks, then subtract the data unit that was added eleven weeks in the past, and divide by 10. You can see that the trend is entirely dependent on the difference between the current data and the data e...
BY: Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Moving averages Part 1 by John Ehlers Averages have long been recognized as the best estimator of a random variable. Traders use moving averages as trading signals or as components of trading systems, but the moving average characteristics are seldom described for them. This is the first of a two-part article on moving averages to help promote a wider understanding. I'll explore some interesting characteristics of several kinds of moving averages and compare them in this article. In part 2, these characteristics will be applied to create a new kind of leading indicator entry system. I modestl...
BY: John F. Ehlers
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...NYSE technical indicators: diagnosing market bottoms by Thomas Aspray By definition, significant market bottoms or tops seem to catch the majority by surprise, especially the fundamentalists. When an important low is formed, I try to review the many technical studies that I use to determine which ones worked well and which ones didn't. On a daily basis, I run more than 250 studies on the stock market, including cash indices, advance/decline, high/lows and futures. I weight my indicators using past experience, pattern recognition, etc. In this article, we'll take a close look at how some of t...
BY: Thomas Aspray
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...SIDEBAR 1 The period of maximum sensitivity cycle is half the window length, L. Attenuation of a Simple Moving Average (SMA) for this period is 2/pi. For an equivalent Exponential Moving Average (EMA) attenuation this is expressed as:...
BY: Technical Analysis, Inc.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Using BASIC Programs to Massage Data Microsoft BASIC has become the standard programming language on today's PC's and clones. It comes in a couple of slightly different flavors: BASIC, BASICA and GWBASIC, for example, are the most common IBM and clone versions. There are plenty of rather esoteric versions popular among programmers. The following steps will help you to install and use the BASIC programs provided in this issue. 1. Getting started Whichever version of BASIC you have, start it up exactly as you would start your spreadsheet. That is, when the DOS prompt appears, type the name of...
BY: Technical Analysis, Inc.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Trading with Steidlmayer by Ellen C. Williams Talking with J. Peter Steidlmayer about the commodities markets is different than talking with any other trader in the game. Bonds, soybeans, grains and currencies are metaphors that define Steidlmayer's way of looking at life. A success on the floor at the Chicago Board of Trade while still in his 20s, Steidlmayer wrote a trader's manual for the Chicago Board of Trade known as the Market Profile in 1984. In this work, he details how time, price and sales reflect what goes on while the markets are trading. At the end of each day, the Liquidity Da...
BY: Ellen C. Williams