ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Commodity Channel Index: Tool for Trading Cyclic Trends by DONALD R. LAMBERT Reprinted from Commodities Magazine 1980 219 Parkade, Cedar Falls, IA 50613. Many commodities exhibit some type of cyclical or seasonal price pattern. But, the commodity trader still faces the problem of detecting when the regular price movements begin and end because climate and other real world conditions may affect their timing. One method that can help spot these turns is the Commodity Channel Index (CCI), a recently developed index which is somewhat akin to a ""standard score"" in statistics. The CCI doesn't c...
BY: DONALD R. LAMBERT
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Computerizing Elliott by ROBERT R. PRECHTER, JR. A ny discipline that can be explained and quantifed is ultimately programmable, and the Elloitt Wave Principle is no exception. In fact, many aspects probably could be computerized relatively easily. However, in attempting to program ""Elliott"" in its entirety, we run into a problem, namely, the element that is not easily programmable happens to be the most important and fundamental element of Elliott analysis: wave counting. Wave counting precedes all other analysis under Elliott. If that aspect could be programmed, it would be easy to progra...
BY: Robert R. Prechter Jr.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Confessions of a Speculator: Why Losses Occur by JESSE H. THOMPSON/ Technical Analysis staff writer ""The Markets"", whether envisioned as the stock markets, the futures markets or any of the myriad forms and reflections of price activity, are all somewhat compelling. Driven by hope, fear, greed, curiosity or crowd psychology countless individuals gather around the exchanges of the world (or by proxy around their quote machines and computers), noting and participating in the constant movement of prices. Maybe it's the reflections of the future, cast in the shadows of price activity that compe...
BY: Jesse H. Thompson
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Crooks, Cranks and Honest Citizens: Commodity Periodicals by FRED S. GEHM (The first of a regular feature column) This is going to be a column of reviews of criticisms. It will be a consumer's guide to technical analysis. This includes books, magazines, newsletters, seminars and other products. Criticism is easy; any fool can criticize. However, responsible criticism is not easy. It is not easy to keep an open mind and, worse, it's almost impossible to know when your mind is not open. I have yet to meet a bigot who didn't think he (or she) was the voice of reason, for example. If it is imp...
BY: Fred S. Gehm
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...December Treasury Bonds by JESSE H. THOMPSON/Technical Analysis staff writer Interest rate futures are always interesting to chart as well as to trade. Aside from the speculative aspects of interest rate futures, it is also valuable to know how much a lender is going to charge to let loose of his cash for awhile. For trading purposes the December and June Treasury Bond contracts are good vehicles to employ. I also find a quarterly Dow Jones 20 bond chart dating back to 1966 and a monthly chart of the long term Treasuries (15 years or more) are helpful. The following trades or positions were ...
BY: Jesse H. Thompson
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Good Trix by JACK K. HUTSON A few years ago I decided to explore the possibility of using a small computer to take some of the drudgery out of trading. The endless hours of maintaining and experimenting with chart and numerical aids to transaction timing was infringing upon my trade decision process. I always felt that by taking just a little time, and cranking out just one more wonderful oscillator or average, that my chances for a profitable trade would be improved. In most cases all I did was reassure myself that I had examined most every ""system"" in my personal repertoire, but I had no ...
BY: Jack K. Hutson
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Letters to Technical Analysis This column is our means of communicating wit our subscribers and serves as an outlet for questions and answers. Please feel free to write about anything that you would like to know more (or less) about or pass along to the rest of us. We all run across trading techniques, services and products that have proven to be useful to some degree underd different market conditions. Without a constant source of new ideas and subject matter coming from our readers this magazine would not exist. Each issue is designed to hold at least one idea or clarify one subject that CO...
BY: Technical Analysis, Inc.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Channel Index can help both stock and commodity traders detect when ""real world conditions,"" such as climate, are affecting seasonal price patterns. The author explains how to calculate as well as use the CCI. By Donald R. Lambert Four steps to calculate CCI 1.Compute today's ""typical"" price using high low and close: X1 = 1/3 (H + L + C) 2. Compute a moving average of the N most recent typical prices:...
BY: Technical Analysis, Inc.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Programming Conventions for BASIC Technical Analysis subroutines: NO Input/Output routine is provided, only a generic BASIC computational subroutine containing the fundamental technical analysis is provided. This subroutine should, with only minor changes, work on any computer using the BASIC language. INPUT data (daily, weekly, monthly, etc.) must be provided by the user (i.e. YOU) in the following matrix format: X(7,NUM) where...
BY: Technical Analysis, Inc.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Logarithmic Scale. by JACK K. HUTSON Semi-Logarithmic (ratio, proportion or percentage paper) graphic rulings are used when the analyst wants to compare percentage price changes rather than absolute price changes. By plotting the logarithm of price in lieu of price itself we are able to directly compare percentage change in price at the three dollar verses the thirty dollar level. Mathematically, if there is a fixed percentage change between two pairs of prices the difference between the logarithms of the price will be equal. When the logarithms of price rather than the actual price are ...
BY: Jack K. Hutson
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Nature of Price Resistance by JESSE H. THOMPSON/Technical Analysis staff writer Most of us involved with speculative markets often are so preoccupied with ""effect"", or price activity, that we ignore ""cause."" But an understanding of cause can clarify our analysis of that all-important effect. Basic cause might be defined as the ever-changing relationship between the forces of supply and demand. We traders tend to think of commodity contracts only as speculative vehicles or abstractions. We tend to forget that the commodity contracts we so actively trade normally are a reflection of th...
BY: Jesse H. Thompson