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DownloadAlpha-beta trend following system Version II, tuning for performance by Anthony W. Warren Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Alpha-beta trend following system Version II, tuning for performance by Anthony W. Warren Ph.D. Several years ago, I published the alpha-beta trend following method in Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities. Although similar in concept to the c
Alpha-beta trend-following revisited by Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Alpha-beta trend-following revisited by Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D. In the June and December 1985 issues of Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazine, I presented a new method for trend-following based on the use of alpha-beta filtering for trade
An Introduction to Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) Technical Analysis by Anthony W. Warren, Ph. D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...An Introduction to Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) Technical Analysis by Anthony W. Warren, PhD RESEARCH Preface to Maximum Entropy Articles A reasonable assumption concerning the motivation of subscribers to Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities
Are there gaps in your thinking? by Richard W. Arms Jr.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Are there gaps in your thinking? by Richard W. Arms Jr. Usually in the use of technical analysis we are concerned with what happened and how it happened in order to predict what will happen. But there are times when what didn't happen can be as importan
Assessing Risk On Wall Street by Robert W. Hull
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Book Review: Thomas A. Rorro's Assessing Risk on Wall Street. By Robert W. Hull Thomas A. Rorro Sobaro Publishing Company, 1984 Price: $17.95 (202 pages) Thomas A. Rorro's book, Assessing Risk on Wall Street , is indeed a bridge between the investment
At The Close by Donald W. Pendergast Jr
Black-Scholes vs. Cox-Ross-Rubinstein By John W. Labuszewski and John E. Nyhoff
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Black-Scholes vs. Cox-Ross-Rubinstein By John W. Labuszewski and John E. Nyhoff Professors Fischer Black and Myron Scholes of the University of Chicago introduced, in 1973, what was to become the most commonly cited option pricing model. This was a fort
Calculating Momentum A New Way by Darryl W. Maddox
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Calculating Momentum A New Way by Darryl W. Maddox Traditionally, the calculation of market momentum has been a difference calculation. Thus, a momentum indicator for the Dow Jones Industrial Average is calculated by subtracting the closing value on one
Combining Fibonacci Retracements And The RSI by Ingo W. Bucher
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Combining Fibonacci Retracements And The RSI by Ingo W. Bucher Combining the two can help identify significant support and resistance levels. Many of you have used the relative strength index (RSI) and Fibonacci retracement levels independently, but ha
Cross Your Arms by Richard W. Arms Jr.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Cross Your Arms by Richard W. Arms Jr. The dinner had been marvelous, the wine had been perfect, and now my wife and I were arriving at the theater. I knew we were right on time, and I had the tickets in my inside coat pocket. As we walked up to the ent
Data Filtering For Trend Channel Analysis by Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Data Filtering For Trend Channel Analysis by Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D. Trend-following methods typically utilize moving averages of closing price data for buy and sell signals. Often, the signals turn out to be false due to short-term market fluctuations
Did Dow Theory Fail? by Tim W. Wood, CPA
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Did Dow Theory Fail? by Tim W. Wood, CPA Here's a look at the chain of events that have taken place since 2002 and what we can learn from them. AS the Dow Jones industrials topped out in 2000 and plunged nearly 38% into the 2002 low, every indication,
Dow Theory Direction by Tim W. Wood, CPA
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Dow Theory Direction by Tim W. Wood, CPA Why do opinions on Dow theory so often vary, and why do Dow theory "signals" so often fail? Typically, there is one common denominator that becomes immediately apparent in most articles about Dow theory: too man
Ease of movement by Richard W. Arms Jr.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Ease of movement by Richard W. Arms Jr. On occasion it seems as though a stock or commodity must have discovered anti-gravity. It moves upward with little effort. Such a move is characterized by increasing volume but similarly increasing price spread on
Forecasting With Maximum Entropy by Jack K. Hutson and Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Forecasting With Maximum Entropy by Jack K. Hutson and Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D. The most obvious ability that stock or commodity buyers and sellers wish for is foresight. If there was a method or technique that we could use to predict what tomorrow will
Forex Focus: The US Dollar And Precious Metals by Donald W. Pendergast Jr.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Playing the US dollar versus the precious metals market dynamic is one of the highest-probability trading games around. This is especially significant at major trend reversals. Will the significant support area near 76.00 even hold, much less act a
Gold Hiccup or Reversal? by Donald W. Pendergast Jr.
How Has The Stock Market Priced Itself? by Gordon W. Neal
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...How Has The Stock Market Priced Itself? by Gordon W. Neal Here's a statistical view of the stock market using the Standard & Poor's 500 as the basis for analysis, and a collection of fundamental influences. Assessing whether the overall market is pric
How Has The Stock Market Priced Itself? by Gordon W. Neal
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...How Has The Stock Market Priced Itself? by Gordon W. Neal Sometimes, the most puzzling of trading questions can be answered with the simplest of technical methods. Here, two such methods are combined for trading: Tushar Chande's variable indexed dynamic
Insider insight Richard W Arms. Jr.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Insider insight Richard W Arms. Jr. For months the stock in question has done very little. It has moved sideways in a narrow trading range on moderate volume. Suddenly, volume doubles, the stock moves sharply higher, breaking out above the old congestio
Interview: Michael W. Covel by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Stocks & Commodities V. 23:6 (52-57): Interview: Michael W. Covel by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan The author of Trend Following: How Great Traders Make Millions In Up Or Down Markets and a researcher of the most successful trend-following investment managers
Interview: Robert W. Colby, CMT by Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Robert W. Colby is senior investment strategist at TradingEducation.com and RobertWColby.com. He is also a consultant to institutional and private investors and traders, providing custom research services and trading systems tailored to clients' objectiv
Intraday trading techniques by John W. Labuszewski and John E. Nyhoff
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Intraday trading techniques by John W. Labuszewski and John E. Nyhoff Many analysts find that the charting techniques that they rely on for inter-day trading are somewhat less useful on an intraday basis. As a result, these analysts often rely on other
Long-Term Fibonacci Support and Resistance by Kevin W. Murphy
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Here's a historical review of the major swings in the stock market and the Fibonacci relationships. According to long-term FibonacciÝ support and resistance levels in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), we are approaching a notable resistance leve
Making A Good System Great by Donald W. Pendergast Jr
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Once you have a trading system, you still need to evaluate it. You can apply optimization strategies to increase profitability, reduce drawdowns, and enhance the stability of your system.
Maximum Entropy Optimization by Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D. and Jack K. Hutson
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Maximum Entropy Optimization by Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D. and Jack K. Hutson The Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) is a promising new system for short-term Spectrum Analysis and trend forecasting. In this article we discuss the process of obtaining an optimal
Momentum Trading Using Fourier/WAMI Optimization by Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Momentum Trading Using Fourier/Wami Optimization by Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D. Technical analysis and the use of indicators may lend itself to well-defined rules for trading, but most traders develop their methods into more of an art form. Here, a longtim
Optimizing Momentum by Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Optimizing Momentum by Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D. Longtime readers may remember the body of written work from Stocks & Commodities contributor Anthony W. Warren during the early days of this magazine, in particular Fourier transform and triple exponential
Optimizing the Maximum Entropy Method by Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Optimizing the Maximum Entropy Method by Anthony W. Warren, PhD This article is the second in a series on the Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) and its use in technical analysis for short data length spectrum estimation and short term forecasting. In the fir
Part 1. Concepts and Examples A Trend Following Method for All Seasons by Anthony W. Warren
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Part 1. Concepts and Examples A Trend Following Method for All Seasons by Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D. Introduction Trend following methods based on plots of raw and moving average data are one of the oldest and most universally used techniques of technica
Part II. Implementation Using Alpha-Beta Filtering A trend following method for all seasons by Antho
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Part II. Implementation Using Alpha-Beta Filtering A trend following method for all seasons by Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D. Summary In the June issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities we presented a trend following method for stock and commodit
Pattern Recognition and T-Bond Futures by Scott W. Barrie
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...V.13:08 (352-358): Pattern Recognition and T-Bond Futures by Scott W. Barrie Pattern recognition is used to standardize and categorize market behavior into quantifiable market movements. After a collection of patterns have been identified, the market mo
Percent Difference Oscillator by Darryl W. Maddox
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Percent Difference Oscillator by Darryl W. Maddox To determine intermediate-term turning points in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), I use a procedure that I call a percent difference oscillator. The data gleaned from the use of the oscillator ca
Pork Bellies and the COT Index by Scott W. Barrie
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Pork Bellies And The COT Index by Scott W. Barrie When presented with sentiment data, you'll need to know when to follow the crowd or be a contrarian. In our continuing look at using the COT index to predict market direction for commodities, here's a st
Price/Oscillator Divergences by W. Lawson McWhorter
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Price/Oscillator Divergences By W. Lawson McWhorter Have Dow theory divergences always fascinated you? Well, you're in luck. Here's a primer on observing divergence between indicators and prices to generate trading signals. Divergence, or the nonconfir
Product Review: Channalyze by D. W. Davies
Profits, Pitfalls, Patience by Donald W. Pendergast Jr.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Profits, Pitfalls, Patience by Donald W. Pendergast Jr. Plan your trade, trade your plan. Here's what can happen when a trader plunges into a position without following a trading blueprint. God really watches over children and fools, then I must have b
Ram Trading by Lorne W. Rae
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Ram Trading by Lorne W. Rae With this simple daytrading method using candlestick formations and the opening action, this author demonstrates a high-probability, low-risk trading strategy that gets you in and out in a single day. Just as the battering r
Right On Target by Richard W. Arms Jr.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Right On Target by Richard W. Arms Jr. I used to buy stocks and commodities in the same manner in which Columbus sailed to the New World: I didn't know where I was going when I started out, and when I got there I didn't know where I was. It was a great
The Keys To Trend-Following by Donald W. Pendergast Jr.
Timing The Move by Lorne W. Rae
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Timing The Move by Lorne W. Rae All traders want to know in advance how long a price trend will last. Try predicting it with this technique. A note in Robert Edwards and John Magee's Technical Analysis Of Stock Trends states, "Volume is of the utmost i
Trade System Evaluation by Donald W. Pendergast Jr.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Trade System Evaluation by Donald W. Pendergast Jr. Here we evaluate a simple trading system that will enable you to simulate the results of realistic trading with a portfolio of stocks. Evaluating your trading system performance before you put real mo
Trading Andrews Lines by John W. Chandler
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Trading Andrews Lines by John W. Chandler If you've ever wanted to know how to use the Andrews pitchfork technique, movement to movement, this should help you. About 20 years ago, I first learned about the work of Alan Andrews and his pitchfork chartin
Trading Monthly Eurodollars by Scott W. Barrie
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Trading Monthly Eurodollars by Scott W. Barrie Traders tend to be more interested in trading short time frames than long ones, but a longer one can be of value as well. Here's a simple technical system based on monthly Eurodollar charts for entry and ex
Trading Soybean Spreads by Scott W. Barrie
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Trading Soybean Spreads by Scott W. Barrie Here are the basics of trading a soybean commodity spread using a seasonal strategy. The price relationship between two or more given commodity contracts is known as a spread. Spread trading is the purchase o
Trading the Wheat/Corn Spread by Scott W. Barrie
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Trading The Wheat/Corn Spread: by Scott W. Barrie Here's a seasonally and statistically based intermarket spread trade. Within a short time, every futures trader learns strategies that go beyond the simple long or short position. In riding the learning
Trend-Following The Corn/Wheat Spread by Scott W. Barrie
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Grain markets offer profit opportunities due to the seasonal nature of their planting, crop development and harvesting cycle. During certain times of the year, the price of the grain crops are especially vulnerable due to these seasonal tendencies. Here
Using The Arms Index In Intraday Applications by Richard W. Arms Jr.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Using The Arms Index In Intraday Applications by Richard W. Arms Jr. A few weeks ago, I received a call from an analyst who had read a number of my recent articles in STOCKS & COMMODITIES and had an interesting question. ""I've developed a new index to
Using basic statistics for stops by Robert W. Hull, Jr.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Using basic statistics for stops by Robert W. Hull, Jr. The primary purpose of this article is to use basic statistics to measure the degree of price volatility that can occur on a daily basis in the copper market. These measures can then be used to pla
Volume-adjusted moving averages by Richard W. Arms Jr.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Volume-adjusted moving averages by Richard W. Arms Jr. A moving average line is just that. It smoothes price over time, reducing erratic, shorter-term swings to a smoother, more comprehensible line. Any changes in the parameters of the moving average li
What Can Market Cycles Tell Us? by Tim W. Wood, CPA
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...The Secrets Of Cycles And What They Can Reveal What Can Market Cycles Tell Us? by Tim W. Wood, CPA Everything in nature moves in cycles -- the solar system, the migration of geese, sleep patterns. Of more immediate interest to traders are cycles in the a
What volume is it? by Richard W. Arms, Jr.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...What volume is it? by Richard W. Arms, Jr. Markets often seem unpredictable and erratic. They give the impression of being disorganized because they do not always behave as we think they should. We live by clocks and schedules, yet all too often prices
Working Money: Candlestick Profits by Stephen W. Bigalow
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Working Money: Candlestick Profits by Stephen W. Bigalow A charting technique from long ago can help you make a tidy profit. Although candlestick charting has been a part of the US trading Acommunity for decades, only recently has interest picked up in
Working Money: Candlesticks And The J-Hook by Stephen W. Bigalow
Working Money: Stop-Loss Procedures Made Easy by Stephen W. Bigalow
Working Money: The Belthold Signal by Stephen W. Bigalow
Working Money: The Dumpling Top by Stephen W. Bigalow
Working Money: When Will This Cruel Market Be Over? by Tim W. Wood, CPA
Working Money: With Trading Systems, Patience Pays Off by D. W. Pendergast Jr.
Yield Spread Tunnels by Lorne W. Rae
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Yield Spread Tunnels Fixed income investors have an array of instruments in which to invest. They can choose from an assortment of maturities as well as credit quality. Here's a simple technique with which to identify opportunities in the fixed-income ma
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