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Article Archive For Keyword: Clifford
DownloadA more conservative estimate of risk by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...A more conservative estimate of risk by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D. Risk is, or at least should be, of interest to all investors. One of the traditional measures of risk is the standard deviation of expected returns (that is, the spread of the expected re
A simple analogue of auto- and cross-correlation by Clifford J. Sherry
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...A simple analogue of auto- and cross-correlation by Clifford J. Sherry If you trade commodities or stocks and if you expect to make a profit, you are making the tacit assumption that you can predict the future price of your commodity or stock. Traders
Are Your Inputs Correlated? by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Are Your Inputs Correlated? by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D. If you use neural nets to model the behavior of equity markets in an effort to develop a trading strategy, it's likely that your model has multiple inputs. You may very well find that two or more
Are there patterns in financial ratios? by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Are there patterns in financial ratios? by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D. Technical analysts strive to find patterns in the past history of the prices of stocks and commodities (using charts, moving averages, etc.) that will allow them to predict future pric
Correlations: serial and auto by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Correlations: serial and auto by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D. Suppose you are testing a pricing pattern to see what relationship it has to future price movement. Or, you are testing an indicator's correlations with price movement. In each case, you need a
Detecting a dependent process by Clifford J. Sherry Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Detecting a dependent process by Clifford J. Sherry Ph.D. If you know the price of a commodity today, can you predict what the price will be tomorrow? Can you predict whether the price will increase or decrease? Dr. Sherry proposes a statistical method
Detecting dependence part 2 by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Detecting dependence part 2 by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D. In an article in the last issue (Stocks & Commodities, April 1986), I outlined a means of detecting whether dependence existed between prices in a time series. To read this article, you should rec
Detecting hidden signals by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Detecting hidden signals by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D. Do you have a signal, such as a particular pattern of price movements, that is buried in noise like random fluctuations or seasonal trends? If you believe this signal is time-locked to some internal
Gambler's Paradox by Clifford J. Sherry
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Gambler's Paradox by Clifford J. Sherry If you know the price of a commodity today, can you predict the price tomorrow? A week from tomorrow? A month from tomorrow? Can you predict whether the price will increase or decrease and by how much? The answer
How Random Is Random? by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...How Random Is Random? by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D. Some fundamentalists and most technicians would probably agree that tick-to-tick or maybe even day-to-day price changes aren't completely random. Most fundamentalists would argue that price changes over
Malfunctioning Computers: Who Pays? by Clifford Sherry, Ph. D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Malfunctioning Computers: Who Pays? by Clifford Sherry, Ph. D. You have just decided to purchase a new computer, peripheral (disc drive, printer, etc.) or software package (program). How should you proceed? First, you should stop and do some careful thi
Money Supply And The Leading Economic Indicators by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Money Supply And The Leading Economic Indicators by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D. This longtime Stocks & Commodities contributor and author discusses the relationship between the money supply and the composite index of leading economic indicators. The Nati
Money supply (M2): A leading economic indicator by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Money supply (M2): A leading economic indicator by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D. I want to show you an analytical technique that you can use to estimate the probability of future price increases or decreases. I'll use the money supply figures (M2) from 1948
Point/ Counterpoint By Clifford S. Sherry, Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Point/ Counterpoint By Clifford S. Sherry, Ph.D. I believe there are some major flaws in the statistical reasoning in Curtis McKallip's article ""Investigating Chart Patterns Using Markov Analysis"" (STOCKS & COMMODITIES December 1986). Using the raw nu
Prediction by Index by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Prediction by Index by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D. The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators is a summary measure designed to indicate changes in the direction of aggregrate economic activity. The Index measures the average behavior of a group of
Random walk prices by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Random walk prices by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D. Are your trades based on skill or luck? Sherry's simple ""Skill Score"" will show you how to determine whether your decisions are based on your trading prowess or the luck of the draw. A recent article b
Runs: A method for detecting 'rhythms' in prices by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Runs: A method for detecting 'rhythms' in prices by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D. Do runs or clusterings of like observations, such as 'rhythms' of price increases or decreases, occur by chance alone or is there some deterministic process at work? Statistic
Skill or luck? by Clifford J Sherry Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Skill or luck? by Clifford J Sherry Ph.D. Dr. Sherry examines the statistical concepts of randomness and independence as they affect prices in the markets. He outlines a method of determining whether or not prices are random and/or independent by using
Squashing Functions by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Squashing Functions by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D. Here's one way to mathematically transform data from one scale to another while maintaining the information content. Those who use neural nets to model equity markets to develop a trading strategy probab
The n-method by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...The n-method by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D. Are large increases or decreases in the price of a given stock or commodity evenly distributed throughout the trading day? The trading week? The trading month? Or are there detectable patterns in these price cha
Trading And Poker Parallels by Don Bright with Darren Clifford
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Stocks & Commodities V. 24:3 (44-45): Trading And Poker Parallels by Don Bright with Darren Clifford Risk? Yes. Reward? Of course. But the similarities go deeper. A couple of months ago, I was asked about the similarities between stock trading and what
Trend Exhaustion Index by Clifford L. Creel, Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...When a price trend changes direction, it is sometimes difficult to predict whether that change is just a small correction or the start of a major trend change. I use a simple indicator, which I call the trend exhaustion index (TEI), to help interpret suc
Understanding Randomness Exercises For Statisticians by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Understanding Randomness Exercises For Statisticians by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D. Author: David Salsburg Publisher: Marcel Dekker, NY, 1983 If you are an investor, whether you believe in the efficient market hypothesis or not, it important for you to
What is the Impact of the S&P 500? by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D.
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...What is the Impact of the S&P 500? by Clifford J. Sherry, Ph.D. What impact does the variability of the market have on the price behavior of an individual stock? Technicians often use the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index as a model for the market when
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