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Article Archive For Keyword: Arthur

  • Advance-decline divergence as an oscillator by Arthur A. Merrill

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Advance-decline divergence as an oscillator by Arthur A. Merrill Which indicators signaled the crash last October? One that had been shouting a warning was A-D Divergence. This is one of our most venerable indicators. The Advance-Decline Divergence Osci

  • Catch The Swings With Arthur Hill

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Arthur Hill, CMT, is the senior technical analyst for StockCharts.com and an independent trader. In 1997, Hill launched TDTrader.com, a website specializing in technical analysis and swing trading. It was acquired by StockCharts.com in 1999, where today

  • Chi Squared by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Chi Squared by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T. Just how meaningful are statistics? Arthur Merrill explains how to find out. If records show that market behavior exhibited more rises than declines at a certain time in the past, could it have been by chance? Y

  • Closing Arms by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Closing Arms by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T. The Arms index has been verified, deified, and even modified, certainly within the pages of STOCKS & COMMODITIES. Now the index is examined again, this time by noted veteran technician Arthur Merrill, to find ou

  • Closing Tick by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Closing Tick by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T. Buyers' market or sellers' market? Counting the upticks and downticks can give you a clue, Merrill says. Are buyers reaching for stock? Do they have to bid a price higher than the last price given (an uptick)? O

  • Computing curved trendlines by Arthur Merrill

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Computing curved trendlines by Arthur Merrill Data sometimes shows a tendency to level off with a downward curve. A curved trendline, in these cases, would be more useful than a straight line. Quite often, the data rises more and more rapidly, like a s

  • Consensus indicators by Arthur A. Merrill

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Consensus indicators by Arthur A. Merrill There are scores of indicators and, at the same moment, some present an optimistic picture of the future while others are predicting trouble. Which indicator should be watched most carefully? When two indicators

  • Customer Option Activity by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Customer Option Activity by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T. The Options Clearing Corporation issues a weekly report to subscribers that lists the totals of options bought and sold on all exchanges nationwide. The transactions are segregated by customer, marke

  • Cycles by Arthur Merrill

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Cycles by Arthur Merrill The market certainly moves in waves. Is there regularity in these cyclical waves that can give us useful clues to the future? Any curve can be approximated by adding together a number of sine waves, each with a different period

  • Double-Bottom Confirmation Strategy by Arthur Hill

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...How To Get Into The Trade Double-Bottom Confirmation Strategy Here's a strategy using a tried-and-true pattern to achieve faster entry signals and improve the reward-to-risk ratio. by Arthur Hill The double bottom that emerged in the Dow Jones Industri

  • Engineering Look At Cycles by Arthur Zernov

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Do cycles exist in markets? Here's a look at the markets from a different angle -- one that will help you realize that there is a harmony among cycles, events, and market behavior. The existence of cycles in stocks and commodities prices is considered

  • First Citizen Of Technical Analysis: Arthur Merrill by Thom Hartle

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...First Citizen Of Technical Analysis: Arthur Merrill by Thom Hartle Arthur A. Merrill, currently of Merrill Analysis and Analysis Press and previously of Technical Trends, drew his first bar chart in 1930. His first, earliest calculations were made on sl

  • Fitting a Trendline by Least Squares by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Fitting A Trendline By Least Squares by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T. Usually, trendlines are drawn through tops or bottoms. They are also drawn through the center of prices by a lagged moving average or by eye (Figure 1). A straight line through the center

  • Fitting a trendline by least squares by Arthur A. Merrill

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Fitting a trendline by least squares by Arthur A. Merrill Trendlines usually are drawn through tops or bottoms. They also are drawn through the center of prices by a lagged moving average or by eye (Figure 1). A straight line through the center of a pri

  • Fund managers' performance by Arthur Merrill, C.M.T.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Fund managers' performance by Arthur Merrill, C.M.T. Should we monitor the actions of mutual fund managers? They are paid a salary to do a better job of investing than the common man. While some managers may not live up to expectations, on the average,

  • How Important Is A Turning Point? by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...How Important Is A Turning Point? by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T. So, naturalists observe a flea Hath smaller fleas that on him prey And these have smaller still to bite 'em; And so proceed ad infinitum. --Jonathan Swift So goes the market. Waves withi

  • Introductions by Arthur A. Merrill

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Introductions by Arthur A. Merrill Stocks tend to fly together, rising in bull markets and declining in bear markets. For this reason, analysts have been searching many years for indicators of the future of the overall stock market. It isn't easy to fi

  • Large block transactions by Arthur Merrill

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Large block transactions by Arthur Merrill Here is an indicator that reveals the direction of enthusiasm of the big operators. Are they reaching for stock, even at higher prices? Or, on the other hand are they eager to unload, even at lower prices? The

  • Logarithmic Point & Figure by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Logarithmic Point & Figure by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T. In the June 1991 STOCKS & COMMODITIES, I described how a turning point could be measured by filtering out minor market moves. The same filtering technique can be used to correct the failings of the

  • Market letter sentiment by Arthur Merrill

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Market letter sentiment by Arthur Merrill Analyst Abraham Cohen, many years ago, began to tabulate the opinions of stock market analysts. He watched scores of market letters (including my own!) and each week put them in three piles: bullish, bearish and

  • Member Trading by Arthur A. Merrill

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Member Trading by Arthur A. Merrill Once a week, but two weeks late, the New York and American stock exchanges report some interesting figures. You will find them in Barron's or The Wall Street Journal : Total volume and total short sales; Specialist

  • Member and public short selling by Arthur A. Merrill

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Member and public short selling by Arthur A. Merrill Total short sales figures, published by the New York and American stock exchanges, are a useful set of figures for gauging market moods. Total short sales figures are reported in The Wall Street Journ

  • Member/Odd Lot Trading by Arthur A. Merrill, CMT

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Member/Odd Lot Trading by Arthur A. Merrill, CMT Stock exchange members, the group that makes up the member trading statistics, should be more knowledgeable than the rest of us, the great ""public."" The members should be smart money -- at least, they sh

  • Merrill Directional Patterns by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Merrill Directional Patterns by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T. Can we get clues to price performance from the swings of prices in the last hours of the preceding day? If we ignore volume and the amount of change, the direction of the swings of prices can be

  • Merrill MW Waves by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Merrill MW Waves by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T. Suppose prices have been moving in a certain way. What are the probabilities for future prices? You must look to the past for similar situations. How similar must the past situation be? If you ask your comp

  • More trend detection by Arthur A. Merrill

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...More trend detection by Arthur A. Merill Last month I described four methods of trend detection: eyeball, filtered waves, zigzags and support/resistance levels. Here are seven more: Moving average This indicator is rather limited when you consider the

  • Most active STOCKS by Arthur Merrill

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Most active STOCKS by Arthur Merrill The 15 most active issues on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) are listed daily in The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, and weekly in Barron's. Are these statistics helpful? The average price statistic c

  • Moving Average Crossovers by Arthur A. Merrill, CMT

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Moving Average Crossovers by Arthur A. Merrill, CMT Are moving average crossovers more effective than other indicators? More specifically, how about moving average crossovers applied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average? S&C contributor Arthur Merrill de

  • Negative Volume Divergence Index by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Negative Volume Divergence Index by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T. The Market Technicians Association has selected the late Paul Dysart for their 1990 annual award ""for outstanding contribution to the field for technical analysis."" Analyst Jim Alphier, in

  • New highs/new lows by Arthur A. Merrill, C. M. T.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...New highs/new lows by Arthur A. Merrill, C. M. T. Each day the number of stocks making new highs and the number making new lows are reported in the financial press. Are these statistics useful? To find out whether they were, I constructed an index of ne

  • Option premiums by Arthur Merrill

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Option premiums by Arthur Merrill Can we derive useful information about the future direction of the stock market from option statistics? I've found one item of data that has a good prediction record--the ratio of the premium on puts to the premium on ca

  • Plurality by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Plurality by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T. Plurality: Now there's an indicator that has been around for at least half a century. Analyst James Alphier claims it was invented by technical analyst pioneer Paul Dysart, who published a piece on the subject at l

  • Price/Dividends Ratio Revisited by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Price/Dividends Ratio Revisited by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T. In 1988 Merrill showed that the price/dividends ratio was useful in calling the 1987 crash. What's the outlook today? In the October 1988 issue of STOCKS & COMMODITIES, I described the useful

  • Price/Earnings Ratios by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Price/Earnings Ratios by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T. Here's a look at an old fundamental analysis favorite and what it can do for the technical analyst. For many years I have monitored the performance of a group of 30 to 50 stocks that have been exhibiti

  • Price/dividends ratio by Arthur Merrill

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Price/dividends ratio by Arthur Merrill An indicator that was shouting warnings before the stock market crash last year was the price/dividends ratio. This indicator is a measure of expensiveness. It reports the current price of enough stock to yield $1

  • Public/member short selling by Arthur Merrill

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Public/member short selling by Arthur Merrill The statistics on shorting by professionals and by the public can be combined into revealing and successful indicators. The basic figures are published, two weeks late, in Barron's and The Wall Street Journa

  • Reading indicator charts by Arthur A. Merrill

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Reading indicator charts by Arthur A. Merrill In the preceding column, I discussed the smoothing of indicator data. When you have tamed the wild fluctuations, how do you translate the result into a forecast? How do you read the chart? There are several

  • Resistance by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Resistance by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T. Prices, like everything else move along the line of least resistance. They will do whatever comes easiest therefore they will go up if there is less resistance to an advance than to a decline and vice versa. --Edw

  • Second Hour Index by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Second Hour Index by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T. In 1983 I noted an indicator developed by analyst Stan Weinstein: the last hour indicator. Changes in prices in the last hour seemed to be useful in forecasting the future. Having an hourly data bank extend

  • Secondaries by Arthur A. Merrill, CMT

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Secondaries by Arthur A. Merrill, CMT If the owner of a large block wants to sell without generating a big price decline, he sometimes enlists the help of an underwriter. This type of sale is called a secondary offering. The underwriter uses his skills

  • Short Interest by Arthur A. Merrill

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Short Interest by Arthur A. Merrill Short interest ? the sale of borrowed stock ? is one of the most useful tools of the technician. Short sales are made by pessimists, who expect prices to fall. If prices fall, the short seller can buy shares at a lowe

  • Sidebar: Fitting a trendline by least squares by Arthur A. Merrill

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Stocks & Commodities V. 22:10 (86): Sidebar: Fitting a trendline by least squares by Arthur A. Merrill Trendlines usually are drawn through tops or bottoms. They also are drawn through the center of prices by a lagged moving average or by eye. A straigh

  • Speculative indicators by Arthur Merrill

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Heavy speculation is a sign of a dangerous market-- one that is riding for a fall. I believe I was the first to suggest, in a 1963 radio interview, that the volume of the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) could be used as a measure of the degree of speculati

  • Stock Selection by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Stock Selection by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T. How does a veteran technician like Arthur Merrill select stocks for investment? He explains that it's not the simplest of methods and it does require research and work, but the results, he notes, are worth it

  • Stocks above moving averages by Arthur A. Merrill, CMT

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Stocks above moving averages by Arthur A. Merrill, CMT The percentage of stocks above their moving averages has been tracked for a number of years by Investor's Intelligence, a weekly report that includes the number of New York Stock Exchange issues abo

  • Swing Expectations by Arthur A. Merrill

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Swing Expectations by Arthur A. Merrill Market moves are plagued by the ""noise"" of short-term vibrations. I've found it useful to clean up the moves by using a simple 5% filter for the market averages and a 10% filter for individual stocks. All swings

  • Taming the indicators by Arthur A. Merrill

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Taming the indicators by Arthur A. Merrill An indicator is often difficult to read because of its wild fluctuations. It may appear optimistic and then dive into bearish territory. Then it might reverse again and turn bullish. Frustrating! A wild indica

  • Testing Indicators by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Testing Indicators by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T. Analysts consult scores of indicators to get clues for the future. At any given instant, however, some of the indicators are bullish and some are bearish. They are never unanimous. Which should we believe?

  • The 28% Rule by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...The 28% Rule by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T. A bear market is interrupted by rallies, which cheer the spirits but are then followed by a resumption of the bear market. Finally, one of the rallies turns out to be the first upswing of a new bull market, and

  • The Elapsed Time Calculator by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...The Elapsed Time Calculator by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T. Veteran technician Arthur Merrill explains how to derive the number of days, actual or calendar, between two dates using a simple table and some elementary steps. Do you need to know the number o

  • The Presidential Election Cycle by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...The Presidential Election Cycle by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T. It's an election year again. What does history say about them ? This famous technician tells you that what you've heard about Presidential election years may very well be true. An election ye

  • The Summer Rally: Fact Or Fiction? by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...The Summer Rally: Fact Or Fiction? by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T. The ""summer rally"" appears in some years and is completely absent in others. Does it deserve its name? I've consulted the record back to 1885 and find that there is a good case for a bull

  • The Wall Street Week index by Arthur A. Merrill

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...The Wall Street Week index by Arthur A. Merrill Every six months I have been checking the accuracy of more than 40 indicators over a span of several years. On the last test, the indicator that came out on top was the Wall Street Week Technical Market In

  • Time Of Daily High And Low by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Time Of Daily High And Low by Arthur A. Merill, C.M.T. Does the time of the high for the day and the time of the low give a clue to the performance of the market on the next day? For example, suppose that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) high po

  • Trend detection by Arthur Merrill

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Trend detection by Arthur Merrill The trend of prices is itself an indicator of the future, since trends tend to continue. In a bull market, the major trend is upward. Since most stocks ride with the trend, it's a good idea to buy and hold stocks in a b

  • Volatility by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Volatility by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T. Does the degree of volatility in the stock market give us any clue to the future of the market? I tested day-to-day volatility and found that it does have a good forecasting record. I took the percent change of t

  • Volume indicators by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Volume indicators by Arthur A. Merrill, C.M.T. The activity of the market, its volume, has long been of interest to investors and traders. I have a copy of the first book on stock market technique, ABC of Stock Speculation, written by S. A. Nelson in 19

  • Volume indices by Arthur Merrill

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Volume indices by Arthur Merrill The ARMS Index, in the years since Richard Arms Jr. originated and described it in the August 7, 1967 issue of Barron's, has been called MKDS by Bunker Ramo, STKS by ADP, TRIN by Quotron and the Short Term Trading Index.

  • Watch the Fed! by Arthur A. Merrill

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Watch the Fed! by Arthur A. Merrill The actions of the Federal Reserve are vitally important to investors and speculators. When the Fed tightens the money supply, interest rates rise, bonds and stocks fall. The reverse occurs when the Fed eases the supp

  • Weekly McClellan Oscillator by Arthur A. Merrill, CMT

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS...Weekly McClellan Oscillator by Arthur A. Merrill, CMT In the September 1989 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, Richard Mogey described and interpreted the McClellan Oscillator. It's based on daily data. My data bank has been developed

Working Money: Corrective Rising Wedges by Arthur Hill

Working Money: Oil Service Stocks Play Catch-up by Arthur Hill

Working Money: S&P 500: Overbought, Maybe. Bearish, No by Arthur Hill






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