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Article Archive For William Rafter

  • Two Moving Function Hybrids by William Rafter

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 23:9 (16-22): Two Moving Function Hybrids by William Rafter Find out how to use these smooth and timely indicators. In analyzing the markets, we frequently findourselves looking at data that is not quite adequate for our needs. More often than not, the data is erratic. We want a reliable market indicator, not an erratic one; so we usually smooth the data with a variety of tools. This smooth the data with a variety of tools. This smoothness comes at a price -- speed. Thus, when you find something that is both smooth and timely, it's time to take notice. The moving slop...

  • The Moving Trend by William Rafter

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Moving Trend by William Rafter Here's a look at a nonlagged filter that can be used as a forecasting tool. Data smoothing has long been likened to taking the first generation of allergy medication. The medication relieved the symptoms, but slowed you down so much that the effect seemed worse than the original allergic discomfort. For years, I have been using a data smoother called the "moving trend," which is the market's best forecast -- based on a previous trend -- of where the price level should be today. It proved to greatly diminish the lag problem. John Ehlers' article in the July 20...

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