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Article Archive For Sherwin Kalt

  • Probability of Investment Ruin by Sherwin Kalt

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Probability of Investment Ruin by Sherwin Kalt When a client opens a managed account with as commodity trading advisor, the general practice is to specify a percentage loss at which the account will be closed. The natural question then arises as to what are the chances that this will happen within a given time period, for example, six months or a year. Given certain empirically determined characteristics of the trading system, this paper provides a method for solving this problem directly. The method can also be used in analyzing investments other than commodity managed accounts. It can be us...

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