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Article Archive For Philip Gotthelf

  • Risk vs. exposure by Philip Gotthelf

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Risk vs. exposure by Philip Gotthelf Flip a coin. What are your chances of ""heads,"" assuming a fair coin? The obvious answer is 50/50. The probability of any event such as a coin flip is similar to the risk associated with an investment. In effect, risk is a function of probability. This concept has become increasingly misunderstood as new investment vehicles flood the market with apocryphal labels of ""limited risk."" Are options really limited risk investments? What about limited risk futures spreads or limited risk penny stocks? All too often, we confuse the concept of risk--the probabi...

  • Survival of the fittest by Philip Gotthelf

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Survival of the fittest by Philip Gotthelf With the proper tools and right attitude, the ""Crash of '87"" represented one of the greatest profit opportunities in history. A single short S&P 500 futures position could have delivered an amazing $60,000-- without even picking a top or bottom. However, we have the benefit of 20/20 hindsight. Could we have spotted the Crash in time to profit? If so, could we have maintained the cool discipline required to stay with short positions long enough to take advantage of ""Black Monday"" and moves that followed? The answer to the first question is obvious...

  • War Stories from Commodex by Philip Gotthelf

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...War Stories from Commodex by Philip Gotthelf Unforgiving is a word frequently used to describe both markets and subscribers to stock or commodity advisory services. When we in the advisory business make profits, it is never enough. When we experience losses, we are never forgiven. While most experienced investors suggest it is imprudent to attempt picking absolute tops and bottoms, such as ""crystal ball"" performance is expected from ""experts"" who publish newsletters that cost hundreds or even thousands of dollars a year. Hence, we try to develop market models and fundamental analysis tha...

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