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Article Archive For Mel Widner, Ph.D.

  • Automated Support And Resistance by Mel Widner, Ph.D.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Automated Support And Resistance by Mel Widner, Ph.D. Support and resistance analysis is a proven method for selecting key price levels for trading decisions; traders usually perform the analysis by hand. The automatic charting method and new oscillators presented here are easy to implement and give a precise comparison of price to these important levels. Sir Isaac Newton's first law of motion is one that is familiar to us all, stating that "Every body continues in its state of rest, or in uniform motion in a straight line, unless compelled to change that state by forces impressed upon it."...

  • Rainbow Charts by Mel Widner, Ph.D.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Here, in part 1 of two, these Contributing Writers explain the steps necessary to evaluate trading system behavior with the use of statistics. Most systems I have seen are simply optimized by being tested with different parameters, examined for profitability and sometimes assessed for a few other characteristics. On occa-sion, I have encountered systems tested on perhaps one or two out-of-sampleY´ periods to determine whether performance would hold up. However, few who write about system development or developers themselves have attempted to estimate probabilities or compute statistical analy...

  • Gauging Mobility with Price Distributions by Mel Widner, Ph.D.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...NEW TECHNIQUES Gauging Mobility With Price Distributions The price distribution function, which analyzes the distribution of prices over a lookback period, is useful for predicting price mobility. Here's a new method called the mobility oscillator that will allow you to do so. By Mel Widner Ph.D. When prices remain about the same for a given period, that indicates that, essentially, buying and selling pressures are in balance. If this persists, then the area of price activity represents an area of congestion. Since traders often place stop orders, take profits and open new positions based o...

  • Sidebars: Price Distribution Functions and Mobility Oscillator by Mel Widner, Ph.D.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...V. 14:2 (55-62): Sidebars: Price Distribution Functions and Mobility Oscillator by Mel Widner, Ph.D. PDFs are computed using a Microsoft Excel 5.0 spreadsheet. The first step is compute the price range and divide the range into intervals. The maximum high and minimum low are: {Cell C19} = MAX(C3:C16) {Cell D19} = MIN(D3:D16) Interval boundaries start in cell G2 as = $D$19 + (G1/10)*($C$19-$D$19) then fill right through cell P2. The contributing terms Ti,j start in cell G3 as = IF(G$2<$D3,0,IF(G$2>$C3,1,(G$2-$D3)/($C3-$D3))) then fill right through cell P3. Next, select from cell ...

  • SIDEBAR: Projection bands and oscillators by Mel Widner

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...V.13:07 (281): SIDEBAR: Projection bands and oscillators by Mel Widner Sidebar Figure 4 shows a Microsoft Excel 4.0 spreadsheet that is used for calculations; column A = trading day number that is used in the calculation of slopes and trends. For a lookback period of 14 days, the slope for the lows in cell F16 is =SLOPE(D3:D16,A3:A16) or =TREND(D3:D16,A3:A16,A16)- TREND(D3:D16,A3:A16,A15) for Excel 3.0 The slope for the highs in cell G16 is =SLOPE(C3:C16,A3:A16) ......

  • Signaling Change with Projection Bands by Mel Widner, Ph.D

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...V.13:07 (275-281): Signaling Change with Projection Bands by Mel Widner, Ph.D Projection bands, a new method using trading bands, projects market data forward along the data trend with the maxima and minima of the projections defining the band. The method provides another means of signaling potential changes for market direction relative to the trend. Buy low and sell high"" is the trader's tenet, and as a result, indicators that determine when prices may be low or high are very popular. Trading bands, which are envelopes drawn about price histories, are one such set of indicators designed...






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