Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES
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Article Archive For Markos Katsanos
DownloadIs The Price REIT?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Equity REITs were crushed during the last two years. Is it too soon to start buying? Are REITs going to recover soon or should you wait for the elusive interest rate cuts? To remove the guesswork, here is a strategy to trade REIT stocks based on their correlation with interest rates...
Growth Or Value?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Choosing between growth or value stocks presents a challenging dilemma for every investor. Here is a strategy that will help you beat the market by rotating between Vanguard's value and growth ETFs according to market conditions...
Trading The Fear Index
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Here is a long-short strategy to capitalize on stock market volatility using volatility-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs or ETNs)...
Stock Market Seasonality
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Should you sell in May, or later in the summer, or never? Is October the best reentry month? Which are the best and worst months for the stock market? And are there statistically significant seasonal patterns in the equity markets? Can we improve on a seasonal system using other technical conditions? Read on to find out...
Buy & Hold, Or Buy & Sell?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Here is a system that with a few simple rules will reduce drawdown and improve the profitability of your portfolio without having to go short or use put options...
Detecting High-Volume Breakouts
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Looking at hundreds of charts for high-volume breakout patterns can be tedious and time-consuming. Here is an indicator that will help identify these patterns in seconds...
Using Relative Strength To Outperform The Market
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Take advantage of the performance differential of a stock versus the market with this new indicator...
Bitcoin Correlations
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Is there a relationship between bitcoin and other commodities, currencies, or stock indexes? Is it possible to forecast the bitcoin price using intermarket strategies? Read on to find out...
The Effect Of Elections On Stock Market Returns
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Do elections influence the stock market? Is there a pattern that investors can take advantage of? This author's statistical research suggests that there is one pattern that produced more than 60% average returns during the election periods in countries around the world...
The Stiffness Indicator
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Find out how stiff your stocks are, or identify the next FAANG stock with this new indicator...
A Technical Method For Rating Stocks
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Is it possible to create a stock rating system using multiple indicators or other technical criteria? If so, how does it compare with analyst ratings...
Trading The Nikkei
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...It's no surprise there is a correlation between the Nikkei 225 index and the Japanese yen. Find out how you can exploit this correlation using this intermarket divergence system...
Which Trend Indicator Wins?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Trends are obvious in retrospect, but identifying them in real time is a different story. Here, we look at four existing trend detection indicators to see how well they do their job. Which one comes out ahead...
Trading The Loonie
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Here's a trading system that exploits the strong correlation between the Canadian dollar and crude oil...
Detecting Flags In Intraday Charts
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Can you apply flags to intraday charts? Once you do, how can you determine the optimal price target? Here is a system that will help you identify flag formations as well as enter and exit them at the right time....
Fundamental, Technical, Or Both
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Forecasting models tend to rely either on fundamental or technical analysis to select stocks. Is one superior to the other? Find out here....
To Cover Or Not?
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Covered call writing is one of the most popular option strategies, but there is, of course, a catch. This variation will reduce risk and increase profitability and compare it with related call writing strategies....
Gold And The European Debt Crisis
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Ever since the Swiss franc was pegged to the euro, gold became the only safe haven investment in times of crisis. Here is a system to profit from the next crisis....
Comparing Seven Money Flow Indicator
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Since Joseph Granville presented the first money flow indicator in 1963, other technicians have attempted to improve on Granville's original formula or devise a completely new approach using volume to predict market price moves. On-balance volume (Ob v), Chaikin money flow (Cm f), accumulation/distribution, volume price trend (vp t), volume oscillator (VO), ease of movement, negative volume index, positive volume index, Klinger oscillator, volume flow indicator (vf i), and the money flow index (mf i) are all indicators that technicians have developed to quantify the rel...
A Seasonal System For Soybean Futures by Markos Katsanos
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A Seasonal System For Soybean Futures by Markos Katsanos Here's a system that exploits historical seasonal patterns to trade soybean futures. Some markets are affected by certain fundamental factors that are seasonal in nature. These tend to recur at the same time each year, influencing the price trend of these markets. The commodity markets have always offered seasonal trading opportunities. Soybeans, corn, and heating oil are three examples of typical seasonal markets. In the case of grains, seasonality is defined by planting and harvest. SEASONALITY Normally, we can expect prices to ...
Trading The Aussie by Markos Katsanos
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Trading The Aussie by Markos Katsanos This system exploits the traditionally strong correlation between the Australian dollar and commodities. The Australian dollar, along with the Canadian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, and the South African rand, is regarded as a "commodity currency," owing to the sizable role of commodity production in the Australian economy. In 2008?09, iron ore is forecast to be Australia's largest export commodity (in value terms), followed by coal, gold, and crude oil. The country's largest agricultural export commodity is wheat, ranked 10th overall in commodity expo...
How Effective Are Rectangles? by Markos Katsanos
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 25:6 (16-26): How Effective Are Rectangles? by Markos Katsanos It's one of the oldest patterns in technical analysis, but how reliable is it? By statistically evaluating the performance of rectangle formations, we can derive a new formula that can remove the guesswork from estimating the price target. After having traded rectangle formations for some time, I discovered the traditional measuring formula to be too conservative and its use almost always resulted in premature exits. Technical literature about these formations provides only a minimum price objective but no...
Bear Flags by Markos Katsanos
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 24:5 (48-55): Bear Flags by Markos Katsanos Here's how you can estimate price targets more accurately in a declining price trend and more. My 2005 articles on flags included statistics for bullish flags only. Although my research started long before, the publication of the first article coincided with the worst market correction since 2003, and I have since received a number of emails from readers questioning the validity of the profit target formula as far as bearish formations are concerned. This motivated me to research flags and pennants in a declining price tren...
Sidebar: MetaStock Codes: System Test, Flags & Pennants by Markos Katsanos
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 23:5 (48-57): Sidebar: MetaStock Codes: System Test, Flags & Pennants by Markos Katsanos This sidebar contains: METASTOCK CODE: SYSTEM TEST, FLAGS & PENNANTS METASTOCK CODE FOR VFI FORMULA, and METASTOCK EXPLORATION FOR FLAG AND PENNANT PATTERN-RECOGNITION SYSTEM...
Detecting Breakouts From Flags & Pennants by Markos Katsanos
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 23:5 (48-57): Detecting Breakouts From Flags & Pennants by Markos Katsanos Here's a system to identify and trade flag and pennant formations. In my previous article, I wrote about the measuring implications, duration, and identifying characteristics of flags and their variations, and promised to present a system to identify and trade these short-term and highly profitable formations. I constructed a viable system by distilling the most useful statistics together with technical observations of 100 flag and pennant samples. I optimized the test parameters in further out...
Sidebar: MetaStock Code and Penny Stock Breakout System by Markos Katsanos
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 23:1 (18-29): Sidebar: MetaStock Code and Penny Stock Breakout System by Markos Katsanos This sidebar contains the MetaStock Code and Penney Stock code for Markos Katsanos' penny stock breakout system. The majority of the stocks broke out of a base formation. Breakouts from pennats or flags were excluded from ths study, as the breakout setup tended to bary substantially from typical stocks in the sample. No other distinguishable formations was observed except for a couple of uncompleted cup-with-handle formations....
Las Vegas Or Los Nasdaq? by Markos Katsanos
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 23:1 (18-29): Las Vegas Or Los Nasdaq? by Markos Katsanos Have you ever seen a low-priced stock in your watchlist go up by more than 50% in a day and wished that it had been in your portfolio list instead? Here's a method for picking stocks before they break out. Most traders and market technicians avoid penny stocks. In fact, their stock screening usually includes a filter to eliminate stocks priced at $5 or less. The most common reason cited is that technical analysis does not apply to penny stocks. But is technical analysis really irrelevant where penny stocks are ...
Measuring Flags And Pennants by Markos Katsanos
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Stocks & Commodities V. 23:4 (22-31): Measuring Flags And Pennants by Markos Katsanos This new statistically derived formula can help you estimate price targets more accurately. Flags and pennants are my favorite formations, and I have used them in my trading for some time. In using them, I found that my exit strategy and profit objective was far from optimal. The classical method used for measuring these common and useful formations is simple and straightforward, but how accurate and reliable is it? It's difficult to find technical literature that provides any statistical studies on the sub...
Using Money Flow To Stay With The Trend by Markos Katsanos
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...V. 22:6 (40-51): Using Money Flow To Stay With The Trend by Markos Katsanos Avoid impending disasters and stay on the right side of the trend with the volume flow indicator. In their classic Technical Analysis Of Stock Trends, Robert Edwards and John Magee make an appropriate introduction to my topic: Changes in trend, which represent an important shift in the balance between supply and demand ? are detectable sooner or later in the action of the market itself. The ? real value of a share is determined at any time ? by supply and demand, which are accurately reflected in the transactions co...
Sidebar: MetaStock code for VFI by Markos Katsanos
Sidebar: Divergence LRS indicator in MetaStock by Markos Katsanos
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Sidebar: Divergence LRS indicator in MetaStock by Markos Katsanos DIVERGENCE LRS INDICATOR IN METASTOCK This indicator is plotted in the article's Figure 3 for FMXI....
Volume Flow Indicator Performance by Markos Katsanos
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Volume Flow Indicator Performance by Markos Katsanos Find out how well the volume flow indicator performs in this, the second of a two-part series on the VFI. Last month, I introduced a long-term money flow indicator I call the volume flow indicator (VFI). The VFI is based on the on-balance volume? (OBV), but with three important modifications: ? Positive readings indicate a bullish state and negative readings a bearish state. ? The calculation is based on the day's median instead of the closing price. ? A threshold was introduced to take into account minimal price changes and another thr...
Detecting Breakouts In Intraday Charts by Markos Katsanos
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Detecting Breakouts In Intraday Charts by Markos Katsanos Here's an important enhancement to the finite volume elements indicator that's especially useful with intraday minute charts. In the April 2003 STOCKS & COMMODITIES, I introduced the finite volume elements indicator (FVE) and demonstrated how it can be used to detect breakouts in daily charts. To refresh your memory, the FVE is a money flow indicator, but it has two important innovations: first, the FVE takes into account both intra- and interday price action, and second, minimal price changes are taken into account by introducing a p...
Detecting Breakouts by Markos Katsanos
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Detecting Breakouts by Markos Katsanos The finite volume elements (FVE) indicator is yet another money flow indicator -- but it takes into account both intra- and interday price action. Most technical analysts underestimate volume indicators in favor of pricebased indicators or price pattern recognition. Volume often leads price, and volume indicators can predict this price change by observing the delicate balance of supply and demand in the never-ending battle between buyers and sellers, bulls and bears. To help analyze crowd psychology and profit from subsequent price moves, I created the f...
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