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Article Archive For Lewis Carl Mokrasch, Ph.D.

  • Detecting Seasonality by Lewis Carl Mokrasch, Ph.D.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Detecting Seasonality by Lewis Carl Mokrasch, Ph.D. Seasonal or cyclical patterns, whether real or only imagined, have been a popular topic among traders for years. Lewis Carl Mokrasch, continuing research published originally in his article in April 1991, presents this time a generalized method for detecting seasonal patterns. However, Mokrasch warns, there are certain caveats that the trader should be aware of, and he notes that the trader should take a good long look at the data involved for significant patterns before risking capital on so called seasonal trades. Here's how to figure it o...

  • Do Five-Year Growth Rates Mean Anything? by Lewis Carl Mokrasch, Ph.D.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Do Five-Year Growth Rates Mean Anything? by Lewis Carl Mokrasch, Ph.D. The five-year growth rate, usually of earnings, is a common index of a company's well-being. Other factors being the same, you would want to own the stock of a company with a high five-year growth rate and avoid or sell short the stock of a company with a negative growth rate. In financial or advisory publications such as Financial World or Barron's, the five-year growth rates are calculated and presented as significant data when stocks are being discussed or compared. Obviously, it's worth a look to find out how to calcu...

  • Looking At 10-Year Stock Price Patterns by Lewis Carl Mokrasch, Ph.D.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Looking At 10-Year Stock Price Patterns by Lewis Carl Mokrasch, Ph.D. Many temporal cycles have some influence on the stock and commodity markets. One, the decennial pattern, receives more attention near the beginning and end of decades. Studying stock market price patterns anew presents some new conclusions. From a report written by actuary W.S. Jevons in 1884, economist E.L. Smith obtained the critical clue he had sought concerning the cyclical behavior of investment instruments. In the early 1930s, cycles of nine and 11 years dominated the thinking of naturalists, because of such natural ...

  • Can Stock Fundamentals Protect You? by Lewis Carl Mokrasch, Ph.D.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Can Stock Fundamentals Protect You? by Lewis Carl Mokrasch, Ph.D. To use fundamental information to find the characteristics of crash-proof stocks, I correlated the price action of stocks during the October 1987 crash with their fundamental statistics. I used data from Barron's and the Media General Financial Weekly Market Digest to select two groups of stocks--one whose prices fell more than 5% in the crash (the Decliners) and another whose prices fell less than 5%, or even rose (the Nondecliners). Figure 1 gives those statistics for which there was no significant difference between the mean...







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