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Article Archive For Kent Calhoun

  • A case for patterns by Kent Calhoun

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A case for patterns by Kent Calhoun Probabilities are nothing more than mathematical odds of occurrence. The success of any trading system is a direct function of probability, yet how often is a trader aware when the odds shift strongly in his or her favor, especially after two, three or four consecutive losses?...

  • Optimal parameter selection by Kent Calhoun

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Optimal parameter selection by Kent Calhoun The success or failure of any trading system hinges on the choice of its parameters. General wisdom holds that optimal parameters are variables that produce the highest cumulative profits on completed trades. My approach is based on a basic defensive trading philosophy--controlling losses is essential to making profits. So, rather than selecting optimal parameters to produce the largest closed cumulative profits, my goal is to locate profitable trading parameters that minimize equity drawdown as the market changes. Optimal commodity parameters vary ...

  • How to evaluate a commodity trading system by Kent Calhoun

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...How to evaluate a commodity trading system by Kent Calhoun The percentage of profitable trades, the average profitable trade, the average losing trade, the maximum consecutive losing trades, the average profit per closed trade, the largest winning and losing trades, the number of profitable buys and sells, the average number of days in losing and winning trades, and the equity return on margin are not what I use to determine whether a commodity trading system can be traded. Just because a system ""makes"" money doesn't guarantee you will make money. I tested 60 systems that ""made"" more tha...

  • Tradable price patterns by Kent Calhoun

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Tradeable price patterns by Kent Calhoun What if you knew tomorrow had an 85% probability of closing higher. Do you think it w w would be possible to find a way to make money? Such patterns do exist in the markets all the time, but go unnoticed because traders do not know how to find them. You can estimate the probabilities associated with any particular pattern of daily closes. Use a computer with your current data or manually tabulate closing prices from, say, The Wall Street Journal or Investor's Daily. First, Monday's close is always assigned a value of X whether it is up or down from Fr...

  • Day trading and short-term trading techniques Part 2 by Kent Calhoun

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Day trading and short-term trading techniques Part 2 by Kent Calhoun In my three years of day trading markets in Chicago, not one person who opened an account strictly for day trading purposes lasted more than six months. Yet, the most successful traders held positions for a short-term period. Many people were good day traders but commissions and market slippage eventually took their toll. Consider the type of trading you will pursue to achieve commodity profits. The day trader and short-term trader, especially, must contend with significant physical and psychological adjustments. To me, th...

  • Half-day trading techniques Part 3 by Kent Calhoun

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Half-day trading techniques Part 3 by Kent Calhoun In volatile markets, profits increase with the price range, but so does the risk. In strong trending markets, traders will be more profitable not using profit exit points described in the September issue of Stocks & Commodities, but either exiting day trades on the close, or holding an overnight position using a trailing stop as protection. This is particularly true when going into the close on a day that has wide price range, heavy volume, a strong close above the open and mid-range, and a close above the previous day's high. In more than 7...

  • Real world technical analysis by Kent Calhoun

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Real world technical analysis by Kent Calhoun Simplicity and common sense trading methods summarize my approach to technical analysis. The purpose of this article is to educate traders to view price action from a more creative perspective, starting with a return to the basics of technical analysis. In over 20 years of trading, I have tested several hundred trading systems, using computers and manual methods. The common denominator for the most successful systems is simplicity. In this series, I will describe a number of systems, but any trading method or system presented here should be thoro...

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