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Article Archive For Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D., and Donna L. McCormick

  • Trading Stocks With A Cyclical System by Jeffrey O. Katz, Ph.D., with D.L. McCormick

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Trading Stocks With A Cyclical System by Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D., with Donna L. McCormick There may be a tradable pattern in individual stocks and indices. Read about one way to systematically look for and track this cycle. More than a decade ago, we noticed that a recurrent pattern could be seen on the charts of individual stocks as well as on the indices. Roughly 90 calendar days after the occurrence of a large, sudden, strong move (mostly upward but sometimes down), there would be a fairly good probability that another such move would occur. The quarterly timing suggested that the patt...

  • Testing Exit Strategies by Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D., and Donna L. McCormick

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Testing Exit Strategies by Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D., and Donna L. McCormick Everyone's looking for entry trading signals, but what about after you're in the trade? Last time, Katz and McCormick looked at different techniques for making a graceful -- and profitable -- exit. This time, they're testing various exit strategies, both separately and in combination, to determine how well they can improve a trading system. Last time, we discussed the problem of exit strategies. We determined that a good exit strategy is important because failing to exit at the proper time can cost a trader dearly, and...

  • Exits, Stops And Strategy by Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D., and Donna L. McCormick

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Exits, Stops And Strategy by Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D., and Donna L. McCormick Everyone's looking for entry trading signals, but what about after you're in the trade? Here are different techniques for making a graceful -- and profitable -- exit. Previously, we focused for the most part on the timing of trading entries. We examined how useful various factors and methodologies were in helping us de-cide when and where to enter a trade. We tested everything from cycles to sunspot activity, from simple rule-based approaches to advanced genetic algorithms and neural networks. We kept our exit strat...

  • Adding The Human Element To Neural Nets by Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D. with Donna L. McCormick

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Adding The Human Element To Neural Nets by Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D., with Donna L. McCormick Is it possible to train a neural network to ""see"" the way you and I do? These Contributing Writers walk you through their research in selecting chart-based trading points by hand and then training the neural network to repeat the process. In the November 1996 article ""On developing trading systems,"" I demonstrated that neural network technology no longer works well when used in a manner employing brute force. To demonstrate, I trained a neural network to directly predict price change over the nex...

  • Seasonality and Trading by Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D., with Donna L. McCormick

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Seasonality and Trading by Jeffrey Owen Katz, Ph.D., with Donna L. McCormick This month, this trader and consultant looks at seasonality as the basis of a trading system. My search for successful systems began with the brute-force application of neural network technology. I wanted to see if I could get a profitable trading system by using neural networks to generate trading signals based simply on recent price changes. As I anticipated, I found that this simplistic approach does not work very well. I then moved to simple rule-based systems, initially working with rules rooted in theory (for...






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