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Article Archive For James G. Arnold

  • Four-Year Cycles by James G. Arnold

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Four-Year Cycles by James G. Arnold I developed the ""form"" of a long-term up/down cycle of the stock market, as shown in Figure 1a. This form shows that all market trends continue to excess. The up market phase drives prices far above value and the down market phase carries prices well below value. Strangely, the extent of these excess movements has demonstrated great consistency in past markets. The measure of price relative to value is reflected in the price/earnings ratio (P/E) of the average and in the dividend yield of the average. The typical movement of P/E and yield over the long-t...

  • Historical Patterns In The Long-Term Stock Market by James G. Arnold

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Historical Patterns In The Long-Term Stock Market by James G. Arnold Stock markets have been around a long time, and historically, markets demonstrate some well-defined patterns. At some levels of averaging, one is even tempted to call the long-term market ""predictable."" I use statistical analysis to reduce more than 100 years of market data to a simple mathematical model. I've sought to identify the important patterns and examine their significance. Understanding the cycles and trends of ""markets past"" should allow you to become comfortable with the market. Prices do not stay in line wi...

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