ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Identifying Market Trends by Jack Karczewski The trend of the market is key to most every technical approach available. But the market doesn't always trend. Here's how to use a statistical tool for determining if the market is in a trend. Traders spend untold amounts of intellectual capital analyzing a market for clues about trend. We try to determine if there is a trend present, when it began, if it has reversed or broken down. The methods employed to interpret this information range from simple chart analysis to sophisticated computer algorithms. Even simple moving averages can become qui...
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Using Multiple Regression Analysis by Jack Karczewski Happily, today's spreadsheets enable traders and investors to measure the relationships between any times series of data. In this article, a linear regression technique is explained for analyzing the relationship between interest rates, the yield on the S&P 500 and the S&P 500 price/earnings ratio. Time series analysis is simply a tool for measuring the relationships, if any, among various sets of data. One statistical method for data analysis is the linear regression technique, which is used to measure the relationships among variables. ...
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Seasonal Variations In A Semiconductor Stock by Jack Karczewski Do seasonal variations exist in the heavily traded and researched stock market? Recently, a securities analyst was quoted as saying that semiconductor stocks declined an average of 40% from their seasonal highs to their seasonal lows. Jack Karczewski presents this primer on the analytical procedure of investigating seasonal fluctuations in the stock market using a semiconductor stock as an example. Predictable seasonal variations in commodities are both well known and documented. Whether the same kind of patterns can be detected...