Holt-Winter Channel: taking the formula one step beyond by Ichu Cheng
ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Holt-Winter Channel:
taking the formula one step beyond
by Ichu Cheng
October 19,1987 witnessed the biggest one-day drop in stock prices in history. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average (DJIA) fell 616 points or 26% in a single day. The drop caught most investors by
surprise. Are there any indicators that could have warned us about the impending crash?
In Figure 1, two parallel lines run along the DJIA line and form a channel which I have developed and
have called the Holt-Winter Channel. A week before the crash, the DJIA price lines crossed the lower
parallel line. This is the sell signal for t...