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Article Archive For Denis Ridley, Ph.D.

  • Combining Negatively Correlated Forecasts by Denis Ridley, Ph.D.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Combining Negatively Correlated Forecasts by Denis Ridley, Ph.D. Will combining two negatively correlated forecasts of price data produce a more accurate forecast? STOCKS & COMMODITIES contributor Denis Ridley says yes. It's called ""antithetic forecasting"", as he explains here. Traders and investors may find that forecasting models are useful for estimating future values of a financial time series. However, serial correlation creates a biased forecast, and that bias in turn is correlated with the forecast origin. Antithetic--or contradictory error--forecasting creates a new but reverse corre...

  • Spectral Forecasting And The Financial Markets by Denis Ridley, Ph.D..

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Spectral Forecasting And The Financial Markets by Denis Ridley, PhD. Ever considered spectral wave analysis to determine cycles in the stock market? Denis Ridley tells you how. As a rule, the financial markets are not easy to forecast. While forecasting every future value of the index is not a reasonable objective, predicting sharp changes in very short-term trends is useful for trading, and that is really all that should matter to the trader. While we cannot and will not prove or disprove the random walk theory, we will look at some predictable elements that do exist in the DJIA and are o...

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