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Article Archive For Curtis McKallip, Jr.

  • The Damping Index by Curtis McKallip Jr.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...The Damping Index by Curtis McKallip Jr. Variety is the spice of life -- except when you're trying to optimize a trading system. This new indicator identifies those places on the price graph where highs and lows are getting closer and closer together, and when used in conjunction with buy rules and sell rules, it can be used to create a computerized trading system. Longtime S&C contributor Curtis McKallip demonstrates. Why is it so difficult to optimize a trading system for different markets? One reason may be that most technical indicators are not easily related to classic economic theory. D...

  • Spread Prices As A Leading Indicator by Curtis McKallip Jr.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Spread Prices As A Leading Indicator by Curtis McKallip Jr. Commodities that are deliverable today trade at a different price than the very same commodity to be delivered in the future. This price differential is called a spread. Spreads exist because of two factors: charges (usually interest and storage charges) and relative demand for a product. Assuming these two factors stay relatively constant, the spread is controlled by the demand anticipated in the short run versus that for longer periods. A recent extreme example of a commodity spread is crude oil during the 1990 Iraqi/Kuwait crisis...

  • Fundamentals behind technical analysis by Curtis McKallip Jr.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Fundamentals behind technical analysis by Curtis McKallip Jr. Would you believe you are doing fundamental analysis without knowing it when you use technical indicators? No, not GNP, PPP, GPD, J-curves or deflators. That stuff is for government policy makers. Fundamental supply and demand analysis is often ignored. Not because it is wrong but because the information isn't there. You can get hourly price quotes off your satellite dish, but can you find out how many soybean plants were planted at 2 p.m.? (And how much would the exchanges charge for it?) If you could get this information it migh...

  • A simple cycle finder by Curtis McKallip Jr.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...A simple cycle finder by Curtis McKallip Jr. Cycle signatures are patterns created by cycles. If you're familiar with Fourier analysis and maximum entropy methods of cycle analysis you know they produce a pattern called amplitude spectra which requires a computer to calculate. In some situations where you might not wish or be able to use a computer, I have an effective method that, compared to computerized mathematics, is crude. Literally, it is a back-of- the-envelope method. Yet it is fast and gives you critical information identifying when your next trading window will arrive. This metho...

  • Flaws in the roulette wheel by Curtis McKallip, Jr.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Flaws in the roulette wheel by Curtis McKallip, Jr. Few games of chance are perfectly random. To the extent they are NOT, profit may be made by betting on those states which occur with greater than random frequency and against those which occur with less than random frequency. In the late 19th century, William Jaggers, a British engineer, hired six men to write down the winning numbers on a roulette wheel for a month of play. By identifying the numbers which came up with greater-than-random frequency and then betting on them, he earned a profit of 1.5 million francs. The anomalous numbers wer...

  • Investigating chart patterns using Markov analysis by Curtis McKallip, Jr.

    ARTICLE SYNOPSIS ...Investigating chart patterns using Markov analysis by Curtis McKallip, Jr. Most traders, at one time or another, have utilized elementary price patterns such as trendlines, triangles, gaps, and flags. The identifying characteristics and measuring properties of these patterns are well known. Patterns also have predictive components and are usually divided into two classes: continuation patterns and reversal patterns, depending on their most frequent chart positions. This article tabulates a large number of transitions from one pattern to another and identifies the ones which are statistically ...






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