Trading Systems  |  APR 2010

Bear Market Survival Kit by Anthony Trongone, PhD, CFP, CTA

Bear Market Survival Kit by Anthony Trongone, PhD, CFP, CTA Any system can produce stellar results when it suggests taking a position in the same direction of a trending market. But what do you do when the market quickly changes direction? Few if any trading systems work across all economic environments. As you know, any system can produce superlative results when it suggests taking a position in the same direction of a trending market. However, the performance of these same systems is rendered ineffective as soon as the market changes direction. This article shows how you can capture profits when taking a long position in a downtrending market. Going back to the 340 days of the previous bear market, I ran the numbers to see if a late upside rally contributed to additional buying or if it reinforced more selling when we are in such a nasty trading environment. GOING AGAINST THE GRAIN When we are in the grips of a bear market, should we try to magnify profits by joining a late price run once it is in motion? Viewed another way, when the market is experiencing a strong rally from 3:00 to 3:30 pm, should we take a long position at 3:30 and hold this position until the ringing of the closing bell (4:00 pm)?

by Anthony Trongone, Ph.D., CFP, CTA