Cycles  |  NOV 2007

Guided By Seasonal Indexes by Darin Newsom

Guided By Seasonal Indexes by Darin Newsom Seasonal indexes can offer insight into possible price targets. Here’s how. We’ve all done it. Whether you are a banker, lawyer, trader, or analyst, we have all caught ourselves staring wistfully out the office window to see spring turn to summer, then autumn, and finally winter. That is the seasonal cycle of nature and it is just as true watching commodity markets on the computer screen as it is looking out the window. SEASONALITY IN COMMODITIES Commodities have seasonal cycles that reflect the normal supply and demand situation of the individual market throughout the course of a calendar year. But just as the argument has been made that industrial progress is changing the cycles in nature, there is talk that the growth of computer trading in commodities is either changing the way seasonal cycles can be studied or doing away with their importance to analysis altogether.

by Darin Newsom