Daytrading  |  AUG 2006

Intraday Market Forecasting by Lee Leibfarth

Stocks & Commodities V. 24:8 (34-37): Intraday Market Forecasting by Lee Leibfarth How do you find high-probability daytrading setups fast? Successful daytraders must have the ability to react as soon as favorable conditions in the market develop. Being able to identify high-probability conditions requires a high level of situational awareness that involves many different charts, indicators, and data sources. I will discuss a method of quickly and accurately sifting through this information in order to spot high probability daytrading setups as soon as they occur. Much like a weather forecast, trading decisions are based on probabilities, not certainties. Even with the ideal combination of conditions, there is still a level of unpredictability in both the markets and the weather. One way to think of intraday market analysis is to compare it with short-term weather forecasting. While it is possible to find a weather outlook for a region, it may be difficult (or impossible) to find a report providing a detailed minute-by-minute outlook for an exact location. In this way, the technical analysis needed for daytrading requires an individual approach that forces traders to become their own meteorologists. The first and most important skill to develop for this style of forecasting is a high level of awareness for what is happening in the immediate area at the moment: right here, right now. This may include knowing the current speed and direction of the wind, the barometric pressure, the temperature, and so on.

by Lee Leibfarth