Forex Focus  |  SEP 2005

Forex Focus by Vikram Murarka

Stocks & Commodities V. 23:9 (30-32): Forex Focus by Vikram Murarka Access to foreign exchange trading has opened up exciting trading options for the retail trader. You can now trade alongside corporations and institutions in a highly liquid market that is global, traded around the clock, and highly leveraged. Before jumping into this market, however, we must understand the factors that affect the forex market. With that in mind, STOCKS & COMMODITIES has introduced Forex Focus to better prepare the retail trader to participate in the currency market. Here are some strong, classical technical signals favoring a euro/ dollar trend reversal. Date: 5/23/05 Closing price of EUR/USD: 1.2595 At the beginning of January 2005, I studied the relationship between the euro and the US dollar and the 10-year Bund-Treasury bond differential and analyzed how it tied in with the technical picture of the euro/US dollar. Given the Elliot wave counts and the yield differentials moving in favor of the US dollar, the indications were that the euro would fall. This is a follow-up article, aimed at finding out whether there are any further technical analysis points to be noted, and what the future might hold. If you look at Figure 1, this is perhaps one of the most classic technical bear turnaround setups in the currency markets in a long time. First note the Elliot waves count on the euro uptrend that started in late 2000. Wave 5 was completed toward the end of December 2004, as marked in the chart, and the euro started falling thereafter.

by Vikram Murarka